[Dark Horse]

SD +3.5 1 unit

Last time the Chargers were here they demolished the Pats 41-27. Even without Marty's excellent record against New England, the Chargers should be able to take care of business. Revenge (imitating Lights Out?! - after stealing a game...), superior defense, and LT, who seems to turn it up a notch against this team. Oh, and there was some sort of distraction during the week for the Patriots?

Regular season intensity. The Bolts are an electrifying 9-0 (!) ATS as road dogs in L3 seasons. In L2 seasons Pats are 1-4 ATS as home favorites of a TD or less.


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Posted week 1: 3-1 sides (+3 units), 1-3 on totals (-2 units).
No more totals for the first four weeks for me; not after a pedestrian 10 pt 1H in Oakland turned into a 57 pt game.

[jrcaces]

Ne -3

[pegasis0066]

I can't believe anyone would bet on this game, unless for entertainment value, and then only something small.

IMO this game is for enjoyment, not money-making.

If betting, I would have anxiety going against NE at home in this game unless getting more than a FG. The win against the Bears was much more emotional for SD than a run-of-a-mill win over NYJ. One might argue, NE has been looking at this early game all off-season - yet they took care of NYJ pretty handily - on the road.

Be careful with SD.

[slacker00]

I'm thinking the over is looking kinda juicy.

[nostradamusX]

It will be over but NE will cover easily. Just think, better coach, better QB, and beter WRs. SD will be punished for this spy thing.

I'm breaking my rule about high profile games but this is an easy one. Pats will win by at least 17.

[slacker00]

I think the Pats win by exactly 4 and I cover by the skin on my balls.

But I can totally see a Patriots blowout. The Chargers just aren't in synch yet. The coaching change still doesn't have this team all on the same page, it might take half the season to get there. Fortunately for the Chargers, they'll still win their fair share. Unfortuantely for the Chargers, they aren't going to be beating the very top tier teams while in this early transition phase. The Bears aren't a very top tier team, IMO. The Bears are half a team. Great D, no O.

[Razz]

Great pick DH, it's the best play on the board YTD college or pro IMO. People can talk until they're blue in the face about NE having the better QB and WRs, but SD has the much better run game, much better defense, and a huge revenge situation, not to even mention its ridiculous numbers as a dog ...

It was actually 41-17 a couple years ago. I don't think it will be that ugly this time, but I fully expect a comfortable SD win.

[austintx05]

and marty was coaching, not norv

[stump]

i like the over in this game

[nostradamusX]

I fully expect a comfortable SD win.

Are you serious? Don't say I didn't tell you. Don't loose your money. SD feeds off the crowd. They haven't had a tough win on the road since the last NE game. However, the playbook is out on SD now. Let LT get three and four YPC and guard Gates. It's a wrap without a deep threat.

Free rent, double your mortgage @ www.patscreamsd.com

[shrax4]

I like SD in this game. I have them teased to +10.5 and feel good about it.

[NEP Dynasty]

Great pick DH, it's the best play on the board YTD college or pro IMO. People can talk until they're blue in the face about NE having the better QB and WRs, but SD has the much better run game, much better defense, and a huge revenge situation, not to even mention its ridiculous numbers as a dog ...

It was actually 41-17 a couple years ago. I don't think it will be that ugly this time, but I fully expect a comfortable SD win.

That run game was real strong in Week 1. Don't waste your money betting on the Chargers.

[Wassymac]

Chargers will finish 1 (or maybe 2) and 0 ATS as a dog this year. That Chicago D with a healthy T. Harris might have had something to do with the Chargers trouble's running the ball. They won't have that issue against NE.

[IWishIWasRich]

San Diego has a coach now that makes some boneheaded calls, look at his regular season record. Even the players can't overcome bad offensive calls. Taking New Englad if I play this game, I may just watch and enjoy. I don't think the "scandal" will bother the players at all, we shall see.

[DoctorX79]

Not gonna bet on this one but i would take NE at home

[Dark Horse]

Good to know we're on the same side Razz. Yea, the Pats put up 17 pts, not 27. Typo.

[rugbybdyb]

The chargers did not look in sync last weekend because LT had not played in any preseason games.....I think this week they bring the heat and upset the pats, in my oppinion.......Plus LT is still pretty pissed about the whole celibration ordeal after last years playoff game.

[Razz]

They haven't had a tough win on the road since the last NE game.

Yeah, winning at a 13-0 Colts team could hardly be described as "tough". Winning @ Cincy, @ Denver, and @ Seattle down the stretch last year was a cakewalk.

[Razz]

That run game was real strong in Week 1. Don't waste your money betting on the Chargers.

Well, if you believe that one week, against the best run defense in the league, in a game the Chargers still won by double digits - and would have won by more if not for a blocked chip shot and the worst no-call on an offside I've ever seen - against the defending NFC champions supercedes years of having the best run game on the planet ...
That's about akin to saying because the Red Sox bullpen looked like trash tonight, betting them to beat the Indians in the playoffs would be a waste of money.

[zootiehead]

Rivers vs. Brady? lol this is the easiest game on the board.

[rm18]

The Bears run defense is not that good at all, maybe improved, it was soft last year, Jaguars, San Diego, Baltimore light years ahead fo them, New England has a better run defense than Chicago, although they may be a little slow at linebacker and not too good at tackling in the secondary when Tomlinson gets too the second level could be trouble

[Mr Nuts]

I like the pats in this one.

[jonmic]

Everyone and their mom is talking about the pats, gotta go with the chargers on this one.

[nostradamusX]

Well, if you believe that one week, against the best run defense in the league, in a game the Chargers still won by double digits - and would have won by more if not for a blocked chip shot and the worst no-call on an offside I've ever seen - against the defending NFC champions supercedes years of having the best run game on the planet ...
That's about akin to saying because the Red Sox bullpen looked like trash tonight, betting them to beat the Indians in the playoffs would be a waste of money.

Good point.

[nostradamusX]

Yeah, winning at a 13-0 Colts team could hardly be described as "tough". Winning @ Cincy, @ Denver, and @ Seattle down the stretch last year was a cakewalk.

Good point.

[rugbybdyb]

If I had to bet on this one I think I would take the chargers, but its too close to call....They both have very explosive offenses so I think the best bet would be the over on this one...I think it will be a track meet.

[cap10]

i have a bad feelin about the sd offense;; it seems to me that
if they were that good they would have scored more last week;; i think they are still strugging w n turners new schemes

hence ne -3.5 looks gr8;; brady and moss will light up that suspect secondary

just my .02

[onlooker]

Remember who's defense they played last week.

Welcome to SBR Forum.

[slacker00]

What was the line for last year's playoff game? Patriots +4.5 at Chargers. So, that says the Chargers were a point or two better than the Patriots for that game. I agree with that line.

What has happned since that game? Chargers lost their coaching staff. Patriots gained Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Adalius Thomas, etc. Chargers took a step backward, while the Patriots took two steps forward.

Say what you will about Marty, but I'll take him any day over Norv.

I hope it's a great game. I hope it comes down to the final play. I hope these two teams beat the crap out of each other, because I dislike both teams as a Colts fan. But at the end of the day, the Patriots are simply the better team. I'd put this line closer to Patriots -5.5.

[nostradamusX]

Rivers vs. Brady? lol this is the easiest game on the board.

I'm saying. I can't believe this is still being discussed. NE rolls.

[EJandV]

are you the nostradamus from usafreepicks ?

[EJandV]

Because of the big distraction with the pats all week and the fact they are playing the probable top 1 , 2 or 3 team in the afc with the best running back in the leauge I would have to take the pts here ................

[nostradamusX]

Because of the big distraction with the pats all week and the fact they are playing the probable top 1 , 2 or 3 team in the afc with the best running back in the leauge

You're right. But Bill and Tom will rise like Darth Vader. I'm risking major cred on this "lock." I respect LT as the best player in years but the Chargers aren't in the same league as NE. It's scary but it comes down to Rivers vs Brady, and Bill vs Norv. It will be a war though.

[Dark Horse]

Mailing this one in early. After not scoring in two consecutive first halves, it seems obvious that the Chargers have a serious coaching problem.

SD +3.5 loss



Posted NFL plays:
5-2 sides (+4.5 units)
1-3 totals (-2 units)

[NEP Dynasty]

Well, if you believe that one week, against the best run defense in the league, in a game the Chargers still won by double digits - and would have won by more if not for a blocked chip shot and the worst no-call on an offside I've ever seen - against the defending NFC champions supercedes years of having the best run game on the planet ...
That's about akin to saying because the Red Sox bullpen looked like trash tonight, betting them to beat the Indians in the playoffs would be a waste of money.

Run game still sucks. Pats clearly the more talented team. This was the easiest play on the board college or NFL, except on the opposite team.