Originally Posted by
MOONCRICKET
the start of any betting season whether it it be ncaafb/bb, nfl, or baseball seems to offer such a tremendous opportunity to take advantage of overzealous fans (the average 50-100 player) whose opinion is very strong since they dont yet have 6 weeks of getting hammered under their belts yet. i always look for dogs early in the year and more specifically i look for lines like pitt -4' dropping to -4 in the midst of 99% of the betting public loving the steelers. so 99 small players bet pittsburgh for $50 thinking that cleveland stinks, has no qb, and pitt loks certain to turn things around this year, but its the one guy in vegas who just bet $10k on cleveland that counters the $4950 just bet on pittsburgh (99x$50) that drops the line a half point and you get pittsburgh -4 now and wonder how the heck did that happen - everyone loves pittsburgh right?? every thread in this forum seems to have the steelers as a BEST BET yet the line is actually moving the other way. now i dont know if it will be jamal lewis ball control, with i little play action to winslow sprinked in and a braylan edwards bomb or 2 as a cherry on top, or if it will be turnovers, special teams heroics or phil dawson kicking 6 field goals, but mark nmy words somehow someway CLEVELAND WILL COVER. later in the year come week 7 the betting public has usually had it handed to them and their voice isnt so loud plus lines get tighter and opportunities like this are fewer and farther between. most everyone is loving denver, seattle, pittsburgh and ST louis this week. these ar 90% betting public consensus plays. in my beat the prick contest entry i used akron +33 ( covered losing 20-2 vs OHIO ST) and 3 nfl plays cleve +4', buff +3, and tampabay +6. all 3 nfl plays' lines are moving toward the dog with the betting public fixated on the favorite, which is my reasoning for following the few who bet giant on the dog vs. the many who bet tiny on the favorite. now who the hell knows until the games are final, but this is and always has been my betting strategy and ive had success year in year out with it. the time i shave run into big trouble is when i amp up my bets as the season progresses rather than cut back or when i bet 3 and 4 team parlays to which i am the absolut eking of going 2-1 or 3-1 respectively winning 70-80% of my games for the week and still reloading my account 5 times during the week. straight bets are the ONLY way to go my friend with , if you must, a $20 4 teamer for kicks, but the parlays will kill you so its time to determine if you just want to be an action junkie and live with losing every year chalking it up to the loser's mentality of "hey, i spent the money as entertainment" or if you want to get serious about making money betting larger amounts on straight bets early in seasons. it is so important to clearly define to yourself who it that you want to be in the betting world and what your goals are lest you get the Malachi Crunch around week seven and lick your wounds for a month only to pawn your vcr to get a $20 7 teamer going during bowl season. PS i used to work for a sport service i know what goes on behind the scenes - if you pay one you are making a big mistake. if anyone wants insider details on just ask and i will give you a tell all. so its cleve/buf/tb in the nfl week 1. happy hunting, and if you must parlay these then you might as well make it a money line parlay which should pay about 14 to 1, but i never recommend parlays.