Hey Chance, You need to come in here and start posting again. Or can't you hang with the "bigboy"'s either.


Saints, Colts kick off NFL season

Whether you're ready for some football or not, the NFL season has arrived. After a long month of preseason games, the gloves officially come off tonight when action gets underway with a dandy of a matchup as the New Orleans Saints, last year's NFC runner-ups, visit the defending champion Indianapolis Colts.

You sat dutifully through five weeks of preseason NFL contests. You know every person on the 53-man roster of every team, plus a number of the free agents who were cut loose. Or not. Either way, the regular season awaits.
Saints, Colts kick off NFL season

New Orleans at Indianapolis (-6½)
Thursday, Sep 6, 8:30 p.m. (ET), NBC
Thursday’s season opener should be entertaining. You have two of the best offenses in the league matched up against arguably the two worst defenses, all under the roof of the RCA Dome. Bettors appear to be split on whether or not to pound the Over on the total of 52½ points; after all, these are two of the top favorites to win Super Bowl XLII. Can those defenses really be that bad?

Those buzzkillers at Football Outsiders think so. Their advanced metrics have the Saints defense projected to finish 31st out of 32 teams in terms of efficiency. At least that’s better than the Colts -- yup, dead last. However, the folks at FO hasten to add that those projections take into account New Orleans’ performance two years ago during their nomadic post-Katrina campaign. Also, the Colts played much of last year without key safety Bob Sanders, and were vastly improved with him back on the field. A Super Bowl winner, no less.

There’s still a lot left to be desired on both defenses. Indy, though, makes up for it with an offense littered with gifted players, and that should be enough to win by at least a converted touchdown on Thursday night.

Miami at Washington (-3)
Sunday, Sep 9, 1:00 p.m. (ET), CBS
FO is bullish on the Redskins, and very much so. They’re projecting between eight and nine victories while the conventional media prepares for another 5-11 campaign. Is there valid reason for hope at FedEx Field? Sure. The defense and special teams appear sound, and the offense has potential in QB Jason Campbell’s first full year under center.

Washington has played the role of public punching bag for a while now. Owner Dan Snyder remains about as popular as a bad case of shingles, but he’s left coach Joe Gibbs in charge of the store, who in turn has recognized his shortcomings after more than a decade away from the game, and delegated some authority to 'associate' Al Saunders. Provided the ‘Skins aren’t marching to the infirmary like they were last year, we should finally see some positive developments in 2007.

The jury is still out, though, on the Fish. Trent Green still has what it takes at quarterback, but it’s becoming apparent that RB Ronnie Brown is less than what Miami hoped for, and WR Chris Chambers is living on borrowed time after a lousy 2006 season. Defense is still the best thing going for the Dolphins; consider this the mirror image of the Thursday night matchup. The total is a low, low 34½ points.

Atlanta at Minnesota (-2½)
Sunday, Sep 9, 1:00 p.m. (ET), FOX
The betting public is expecting another offensive meltdown when the Falcons visit the Vikings with the total set at 35½ at the Metrodome. This is about Michael Vick, of course, and whether you believe Atlanta can possibly be better off with Joey Harrington at quarterback. The advanced metrics say, "Yes."

Vick’s value to the Falcons was entirely as a rusher; they already have Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood to handle the rock, and Harrington was actually more productive than Vick in passing situations last year, even while struggling in Miami.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are putting most of their eggs in the Tarvaris Jackson basket. They do have the stout offensive line and the running tandem of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to take the pressure off the second-year pivot; he’ll need all the time he can get in the pocket after posting a 62.5 passer rating in four appearances (three starts, all losses) as a rookie.

Atlanta can be expected to blitz Jackson and force the unpolished Alabama State product to beat the Falcons with his arm. Heck of a way to start the season.

Chicago at San Diego (-6)
Sunday, Sep 9, 4:15 p.m. (ET), FOX
Speaking of a heck of a way to start the season, one of the late Sunday afternoon contests could very well be a preview of Super Bowl XLII as the defending NFC champion Chicago Bears head west to face the San Diego Chargers.

After falling short with a one-&-out performance in the playoffs last year, the Chargers bid adieu to Marty Schottenheimer over the winter and brought in Norv Turner to run the show. San Diego’s offense features several of the league’s top stars with LaDainian Tomlinson at halfback, Antonio Gates the tight end and Philip Rivers under center. Tomlinson crossed the goal line 31 times in 2006, 28 of those trips by ground, while Gates was Rivers’ favorite scoring target hauling in nine of the 22 TD tossed by the Bolts’ QB.

Picked by many to waltz to the AFC West crown and on to the AFC Championship, San Diego will be tested early this season with a road trip to New England to face the Patriots next up on their slate.

Chicago capped a 13-3 regular season last year with their first trip to the Super Bowl since Sweetness and the Fridge were household names in the league back in the mid-1980s. Cedric Benson, now in his third season, takes over the featured back role from Thomas Jones, while the defense and special teams that led the Bears to the Super Bowl last year remains mostly intact, the one notable exception being the release of lineman Tank Johnson who was seen on police blotters almost as often as he was in the opposition’s backfield in 2006.

The spotlight is on Rex Grossman this season, and it remains to be seen how long head coach Lovie Smith will allow the turnover-prone pivot to remain #1 on the depth chart this year.

San Diego draws the home field favorite role for this one, but by exactly how much depends on when the wagers are made. The spread has been as low as 4½ at some times this week, and is now creeping back up to as many as seven. The total has been less volatile in the 42-43 range.