[WillyBoy]

The model embarrassed itself this past week, going 5-9 ATS, and barely making 50% SU. A season like this makes a fool out of numbers – at least so far – but numbers have a way of bouncing back, so I’m hopeful,

My Geno Smith Watch continues. Of QBs with 6 starts this season, Smith ranks 2^nd in ratings (just ahead of Mahomes) and 3^rd in QBR. I don’t know if he maintains this, given Seattle’s truly awful defense – 31^st – and being the highest penalized team in the league, but so far he’s my comeback player of the year. (And I despise the Seahawks!!!)

Good luck to all this week.

[WillyBoy]

The good thing about a data-driven NFL power ranking is that it’s blind – which is exactly what’s bad about it.

The Jets at 8th and 7^th ?!!!!! They’re winning despite Zach Wilson, who’s regressed badly – the 3^rd worst in my rankings - and they’ve won against teams who are reeling from the injury bug, which is mostly luck. I like watching the Jets play, but they excel at nothing (except rushing defense), and their decent record is mostly smoke and mirrors, and won’t sustain.

On the other hand, clearly the 49ers are better than their 20^th and 24^th ranks. Starter injuries have killed them, which does say something about their depth, but their stellar defense could be even better than the Bills. I’ve despised the 49ers for 40 years, but – once they’re at full strength, they are – IMO – a team that could once again go deep in the playoffs.

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]