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Chalk City (Niners/Falcons)
You'd be wise to play the 49ers -5.5 when they square off with the Falcons in Sunday's first wave.
San Fran is a team I was weary about backing to begin the year. The totally backwards, seemingly forced, woke decision to trot Trey Lance out there was alarming. It made me question the competence and direction of the entire organization. But that pressure was coming from "upstairs". Down in the trenches, every guy on the team knew Garoppolo deserved to be the starter. Luckily for the Niners, Lance's feeble little turkey wishbone ankle saved them from their woke selves. It's in the rear view mirror now, and they're beginning to fire on all cylinders.
On it's face, San Fran's schedule coming into this game looks atrocious:
At Carolina last week. At Atlanta this week.
But they haven't been soaring back and forth across the country. Instead, they took Roger Goodell's lemons and made a big ole sugary pitcher of lemonade. The team has been laid up at the posh Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia all week. A place where it's almost impossible to get in trouble or have any distractions outside of the task at hand.
Now when it comes to the Falcons, they're off to a much ballyhooed 5-0 start against the spread. And it's being celebrated by mainstream harder than the '72 Dolphins undefeated season. Every smiling podcast puppet in the world is doing jumping jacks about Atlanta's success at the betting window thus far.
"Gritty! Feisty! A lot of fight in this Falcon team!"
They won't shut up about it.
But as usual, mainstream is late to the party.
See, if you take the Falcons here, you're betting on something that's fully "out of the bag". There's no uncovered alpha here. They've already been given their due. All spectrums of the market, from sharp to square and everything in between...are aware of Atlanta exceeding spread expectations thru five games.
I have news for you:
Come Monday morning, the Falcons will be 1-5 ATS after SF is done bending them over...
Straight from the desk:
"More than 70% of early tickets are on the Niners. Don't love to see that. But this opened 6.5. We're getting a meaningful discount from where Vegas originally set it. And sharps know that Atlanta is one of the weaker home field advantages in the league these days. I'm playing a bunch of chalk this week in both college & pro, which is FAR from my usual modus operandi. But the market is the market. And my read is my read. Niners cruise here."
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Originally Posted by Jaxartes
