ok been at this for deacdes tried to figure out vegas system they use a team crunching numbers and power ratings so friggin complicated i couldnt figure it out also they KNOW YOU n me vast history of reg bettors so i devloped systems and now i will teach you all.

1st of all when you lose figure out why you lost theres always a reason write it down so u do not make that mistake again

longest running system in nfl past 25 years or longer is when any team wins as a DOG then is chalked next game even after bye weeks fail 65% of the time

i went back 16 years and listed all teams

but lets get to it there is only one thing that counts to me in NFL what goes up on the board Points For PF points against PA

key big game Chiefs @ T B KC favored -2.5 They are success the chiefs vs Brady in season but not in Playoffs

thats all seen on nfl network bottom line

so here we go simple math Bucs PF 51 PA 27 Chiefs PF 88 PA 65

TB is +24 point differntial div by 3 weeks = + 8 ppg

chiefs are = +23 +7.6 ppg so these teams are = as a picem its 0 so the only edge for TB is the 2.5 points

no bout abbouttit the offensive weapons of Chiefs are stronger and faster than Bucs

HC no brainer Reid vs Morris now we look at who did they beat

BUCS wk 1 @ Dallas - 2.5 w 19-3 then at lame saints -2.5 W 20-10 notice diff in win margin 16 points then 10

and TB home - 1.5 vs Packers losing badly 14-6 finally scored final min td but failed 2 point and lost 14-12

Chiefs schdule eh 1st game joke @ Cards - 6 won 44-21 next game TNF - 4 vs Chargers Failed ats won by 3 27-24

then i warned every body colts or nothing as HOME DOG KC chalked -4.5 goes down 17-20

so basically schedules about even

now we look at injury reports the nfl network is gold mine even shows tech angles of teams

ah dammit only shows KC ?? players KC OUT DE M Danna

TB Doubt ful WR Perriman ok wtf says WR Goodwin mid oct hmmmmmm saw he's in on nfl network

will check that again but QB brady injured finger is playing now we have it folks thats on his throwing hand

so he goona have trouble gripping the ball in game forgettabouut Practice no body even breathed on Brady

Mike evans is back for TB was suspneded

and TB Fortuneet has zero TD's and othe top RB Giavanni Bernard out indef.

they have 3 other rb's but wtf Ke'Shawn Vaughn Rachadd White no td's either both and Vauhgn DNP last 2 games

and Kenjon barner hasnt played a game

screw it baby Ground game of cheifs is strong

laying the 2.5 points younger faster team will win the game plus they want payback for losing the sb

lets look at other games where i see spread wrong vs pckem

2 losers vs each other NYG - 3 vs Bears

ok Giants had that rookie HC failure MNF vs Dallas and thats bad losing to that back up QB Bears ahhhhhhh they suck we know it but are head up ats last game pushed -3

this is about as bad as it gets both teams neg point dif

NYG PF 56 PA 59 - 3 div by 3 = - 1 ppg Bears PF 52 PA 57 - 5 div by 3 = -1.6 ppg ok mae it -2 ppg

so 2 -1 = -1 now add spread in Giants are -4 Bears +1 uh ohhh NYG is now worse negative ats - 3 actually add numbers togther when you have + num. vs Neg # it's 5 points that mostly eaquals margin of victory

I like bears here and thst it for now guys NYG playing in london next week vs Pack

bears on road next at div Minny