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and NOW here it is the final decison in the superbowl
Been long time follower of this guy superbowl picks and as far as i know HE hasnt lost
Posted: 24 hours ago
Hello, dear friends, old and young,
I'll turn 80 this year, but don't worry; if I keep finding my way back home, I must still have all my marbles.
As is customary, I have spent the entire year focusing on this game. Over the preceding 20 years, my Super Bowl Covers record was 17-3 against the spread. I've seen all 55 Super Bowls and almost every game this season, so you can bet that I'm not taking this game lightly.
I prefer to take an overview of the game and look for trends. Using overall statistics as a criterion has not worked for me. This was a very difficult game to analyze because it was the first time in history that a Superbowl team is the favorite at their own stadium. By the same token, it puts pressure on a team.
Winning in the NFL used to be about having the best defense and an offense capable of rushing the ball for three yards and a cloud of dust while the defense rested. This is no longer the case. Year after year, the rules have been tweaked to encourage more scoring and close games. In addition, all division matchups were scheduled in the final week of the regular season, to maintain interest in the games. It also made it more difficult for teams to rest their players.
Beginning this season, the number of games was increased from 16 to 17, while the wildcard week was changed to a super format and only one bye week per conference. These modifications continued to achieve the expected impact, close games!
In a typical season, three to six overtime games are played. But this year, 21 overtime games were played during the regular season. Being a trend guy, I was quite certain there would be more overtime games during the playoffs. Sure enough, the trend continued, there were two more in the playoffs, for a grand total of 23 overtime games all year. This is a significant increase that warrants further discussion during the offseason.
Be that as it may, Joe Burrow appeared in four of those overtime games. Green Bay 22-25, Minnesota 27-24 San Francisco 23-26 Kansas City 27-24. This is quite an amazing accomplishment for a young quarterback, given the caliber of these clubs. Especially after suffering a serious leg injury just last year.
I'll never forget how Joe took a physical beating from unbeaten UCF in the 2018 bowl game and still came away with the victory. Take a look at his senior year in 2019. It was a gauntlet, yet they scored 726 points, hanging 63 points on 12-1 Oklahoma alone. This baby-faced quarterback is as tough as nails; he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have been sacked 50 times and still make it to the Super Bowl; he toughens up the entire team.
Let me continue...
And his coach is doing an outstanding job, particularly with halftime adjustments! The Bengals have been extremely competitive on the road, with no losses of more than five points. In fact, they only lost two of their 23 games (including preseason) by more than five points all year, which is remarkable, when you think about it.
It reminds me of a counter puncher; they take your opening punches to see what you've got, then modify accordingly. And the crowd noise does not appear to distract the Bengals, as proven by the playoff games in Tennessee and Kansas City.
The Rams, on the other hand, have put all of their chips on the table, adding Matt Stafford along with a couple of big-name players during the season. They mortgaged their future for this year, yet I have the impression that something is still lacking there. Perhaps they haven't spent enough time with the new players coming on board, I'm not quite sure.
Earlier in the season, they beat Tampa Bay by ten points, but in the playoffs, the Bucs rallied to tie the game when the Rams' whole season was on the line. Despite the fact that the Rams were way ahead, and the Buccaneers were without a number of key players.
Moreover, I'm apprehensive about the three division games versus San Francisco. I just cannot get them out of my head, With all of their talent, you'd figure the Rams would annihilate them. The 49ers, on the other hand, destroyed them in the first game. And in the last two at home, they allowed Garoppolo to win one of them and were fortunate to win the last by three points. This trend worries me.
After much deliberation, I'm going to trust my instincts and take the points. Based on what I have witnessed from Joe previously, and this season, I cannot go against him. His track record is far too impressive. I believe he will keep the game close, probability of overtime.
Therefore, my selection for Superbowl 56, is Cincinnati + 4.5
Thank you in advance for your replies; whether you agree, disagree, or mock me, it's fine.
If I lose my marbles before SB-57, always remember this..." family comes before wagering."
Best of luck and Godspeed.
Your old friend, Don Juan
Cheers OLD Buddy
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Originally Posted by budwiser
