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5 NFL Picks by Stats University Professor (Week #12)
NFL PICKS FOR WEEK #12
Written Wednesday November 20th, 2019 at 2 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK #1: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)
Most sportsbooks have a 3-point spread, but MyBookie.ag offers an even more enticing line on the Rams at 3.5. I hesitated between rating this play 4 or 5 stars. Considering how unbelievably hot the Ravens have been of late, I opted to go with 4 stars.
We all know how great Baltimore’s running game is. Good news for the Rams: their rush defense ranks second in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per rush and fifth in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Overall, L.A.’s defense has been pretty stingy recently. Indeed, they have allowed just 12.8 points per game over their last five games.
The most important source of concern about the Rams is their offensive line, which is in shambles after suffering many injuries. They held up fairly well last week against a solid Bears defense. The running game did okay and they did not allow a single sack.
Speaking of injuries, wide receiver Brandin Cooks is expected to return to action, while Robert Woods is questionable for personal reasons.
The Ravens will be traveling through three time zones for this game. This is also a non-conference road game and it might be hard to match last week’s level of intensity against the Texans.
Sean McVay’s squad will be at home for a third time over the past four weeks.
I am taking the Rams to either win this game, or to keep it close.
PICK #2: Dallas Cowboys +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 3 stars)
My gut feeling tells me I should make the following bold call: the Cowboys are going to pull off the upset in New England this Sunday.
Why am I only rating it three stars then? Because I am always worried when it comes to betting against the Patriots. Always.
Based on each team’s rosters, I love this play. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys can play with the Patriots. Dak Prescott has been playing at a very high level. Ezekiel Elliott has been more quiet in the last two games, but he rushed over 100 yards in the previous three.
Meanwhile, New England keeps racking up the wins, but they have showed signs of weaknesses. Tom Brady has openly said he is frustrated with the way the offense is going. Dallas has an above-average defense, I seriously doubt they will get shredded by New England’s offense.
Basically, all of the ingredients are there for a tight game and I can hardly see Dallas getting beaten up. I do feel an upset in the making.
PICK #3: Detroit Lions -3.5 at Washington Redskins (rated 3 stars)
How can I say this politely? The Redskins are bad. Very bad.
Washington’s best performances this season were a 17-16 win over the Dolphins and a 5-point loss to the Eagles. Other than that, they lost all of their remaining eight games by at least 9 points! In this case, give me the Lions laying 3.5 points for sure!!!
Sure, the Skins are at home for the third consecutive week. And this could be viewed as a sandwich game for the Lions, as they are coming off games against Chicago and Dallas, while awaiting meetings with Chicago and Minnesota.
Still, I’m taking Detroit. I expect them to win easily.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is still out for the Lions, but that’s not a problem. Backup QB Jeff Driskel has done well throwing the ball so far, and his athleticism allows him to extend plays or make good runs.
He has a good surrounding cast with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Scoring 27 points against Dallas was a good output last week. The only problem was their defense who struggled to stop Prescott and company. No one is going to confuse Prescott with Dwayne Haskins, who is simply not good.
The more I talk about this game, the more I like Detroit. Perhaps I should have rated it 4 stars? I’ll let you be the judge.
PICK #4: Seattle Seahawks +1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (rated 2 stars)
The bye week gave plenty of time for Pete Carroll to come up with a sound plan against Philly. It also gave additional time for Seattle’s top target, Tyler Lockett, to heal his leg injury. He is good to go for Sunday. Another key benefit was the extra time for newly acquired Josh Gordon to familiarize with his new offense. He picked up two big first downs in his first game with the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago against the Niners.
I am a bit worried about the Eagles being at home for the fourth week in a row, though. Also, Seattle is a West Coast team that will need to play an early Sunday game on the East Coast.
Alshon Jeffery was limited in practice Wednesday, but he should suit up for the game. However, right tackle Lane Johnson is less certain to play; that would be a big blow for Philadelphia because he’s the one who was supposed to face Clowney.
The big gamblers seem to agree with me, as the average bet size on Seattle is $249 versus just $54 on Philly!
In the end, in this key NFC matchup, I trust Russell Wilson more than Carson Wentz. Wilson is having a MVP year and he is simply hard to beat. Facing a suspect Eagles pass defense, I’ll go with the Seahawks.
PICK #5: Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars)
The Bengals offense has not done well since they switched quarterbacks to see how Ryan Finley would do. They scored 13 points against the Ravens and just 10 in Oakland. Finley has completed less than 50% of his passes.
At least, Joe Mixon did a nice job trying to give his QB some support. During those past two outings, he rushed 45 times for 200 yards (a nice 4.4 yards per rush average, which is awesome considering defenses are probably focusing on him).
So why in the world should we pick Cincinnati? Well, I’m wondering if Pittsburgh’s offense is going to be any better than Cincinnati’s. They are severely banged up.
Juju Smith-Schuster is a long shot to play, while their second-best wide receiver Diontae Johnson is also unlikely to play. He took a severe hit, and we could see some blood around his ear after the play. To make matters worse, running back James Conner is questionable.
With a surrounding cast falling down, can Mason Rudolph be the savior? After watching his 4-interception performance last week, I doubt it.
Sure, Pittsburgh gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but their meeting in Cleveland left many scars. It was a very physical game.
I believe this game will be very low-scoring, in which case betting a seven-point underdog seems like the smartest move to do.
Cheers!
Professor MJ
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Originally Posted by POOLSIDE
