SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
NFL Picks for Week #4 by stats university professor
WEEK #4
PICK: Cleveland Browns +7 at Baltimore Ravens (rated 2 stars)
What? A 7-point spread in a game between division rivals whose talent level is roughly the same? Give me the underdog!
Last week I picked the Bengals +6 at the Bills even though there weren’t many betting angles suggesting to bet them. It just came from my own assessment of how the game would play out. The same thing is occurring in this game. Divisional matchups often lead to hard-fought and tight games, and that’s what I expect in this one. Last year, Cleveland beat Baltimore by 3 points, while the Ravens got their revenge later on with a 2-point victory.
Cleveland’s struggles have been much talked about and publicized. I feel like it has inflated the line on the Browns.
I know, I know. Baker Mayfield has not looked good so far. He has thrown 3 TD passes versus 5 interceptions, and he has completed just 57% of his passes. Do you really expect him to struggle that much all season long? I don’t. That’s another example of “regressing to the mean”; his numbers have been subpar and they will certainly improve until the rest of the season. I have no doubt about that. But right now people are judging him based on his first three games of the season.
The Browns still have many dangerous weapons on offense with Nick Chubb (who has looked good so far), Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. And their defense is above average. They were missing four starters in the secondary but still held the Rams to just 20 points. Now, they are expected to get Damarious Randall back and they have two more guys, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, who are questionable to play.
Basically, I’m trying to tell you that the Browns are being underrated. And on the other side, I feel like the Ravens are getting overrated. First, they crushed the abysmal Miami Dolphins. Fine. Then, it wasn’t that easy beating the Cards at home in a 23 to 17 victory. Then, at first sight it might seem like they came close to beating the Chiefs in a 33-28 loss, but remember they were down 30 to 13 through the first three quarters. Lamar Jackson threw a couple of very wild and erratic passes that were miraculously caught, otherwise Kansas City would have beaten them pretty easily.
Everybody got all excited over Lamar Jackson’s first two games. Which teams did he face? The Dolphins and the Cardinals, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. He didn’t look so good against a more respectable defense last week by completing just 51% of his passes.
I’m taking the Browns and the 7 points. Thank you!
LEAN: New England -7 at Buffalo Bills
New England’s first three opponents have a combined 0-9 record. Buffalo’s first three opponents have a combined 1-8 record. Finally a meaningful game for both squads!
If I had to summarize in one sentence why I’m taking the Patriots in this one, it would go like this: do you really want to bet against a mastermind like Bill Belichick facing a young and error-prone quarterback?
Sure, I feel like Buffalo doesn’t get enough credit. They are better than what most people think. But they are not in the same class as New England just yet. Let’s be honest, the Bills could be 1-2 right now. They came back from a 16-point deficit to beat the Jets and they needed a late touchdown to beat Cincinnati last week.
As the season progresses Buffalo might close the gap with the Pats, but not yet. They still have some learning to do, and they might learn the hard way this Sunday.
Obviously, I’m rooting for the Bills to win this game to help my $10,000 bet on them to win at least 7 games this year, but I don’t see it as very likely. It’s going to be extremely loud at New Era Field, but Tom Brady has enough experience to stay poised and do his thing.
LEAN: Miami Dolphins +16 vs Los Angeles Chargers
Wait, what? I’m picking the Dolphins after telling you last week they had perhaps one of the worst rosters in the history of the NFL?
Yes, because I believe the linesmakers are exaggerating with such a big spread. A couple of weeks ago, Miami was an 18-point underdog at home against the Pats. Now facing a much less stronger team, the line is just 1.5 points lower? Give me Miami, then!
The Dolphins played the Cowboys very tough in the first half. They were down 10-6 and driving in Dallas territory. It looked like they were going to go at halftime with the lead when Kenyon Drake made a criticial fumble at the 7-yard line. That seemed to break Miami’s backs.
The Chargers have looked shaky thus far. They are 1-2 with their only win in overtime at home against the Colts. Maybe losing their two All-Pro safeties, Derwin James and Adrian Phillips, as well as their star running back Melvin Gordon who is still holding out, is indeed hurting Los Angeles big time.
LEAN: Oakland Raiders +7 at Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders will be looking to avenge a 42-28 loss against the Colts last season. They are also going to try to rebound from a poor outing in Minnesota last week.
Derek Carr has been pretty good this year, despite a 1-2 record. But losing to the Chiefs and in Minnesota is nothing to be ashamed of. He has completed 74% of his passes this season.
I felt very bad for the Colts fans when Andrew Luck announced his retirement a few weeks before the season began. What a tough blow. So I’m happy for them that Indianapolis is off to a nice 2-1 start, where their only loss came in overtime at the Chargers. They have done some nice things, but here is one more case of a team that I feel has overachieved thus far.
Indy’s best wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, left the game last week with a quad injury. His status is uncertain, but I’ve read he is more on the “doubtful side of questionable” for Week #4. Even if he plays, who knows how effective he will be.
To me, the spread should be much smaller than this. In my opinion, the Colts have much less than a 50% probability of beating the Raiders by 8 points or more.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by sosawestbrook
