[Prof.MJ]

LEAN: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 at Green Bay Packers

The Eagles’ backs are up against the wall. Sitting at 1-2 while Dallas owns a perfect 3-0 record, Philadelphia must win this game. They’ve lost their past two games, including a very disappointing home loss to the Lions. I do expect them to rebound and give everything they’ve got.

It would be an understatement to claim the Eagles have not played up to expectations thus far. They were among the NFC favorites to make it to the Super Bowl with a loaded offense and a tough defense, especially their defensive line. Meanwhile, the Packers have surprised a lot of people with their 3 wins this season, and I believe they are not as talented as their record shows.

So, on one hand you’ve got a team that has disappointed, and another that is probably overrated by the betting public right now. As a contrarian, I’m going to put my money on the cold team.

Injuries are obviously a concern for the Eagles, especially at wide receiver. DeSean Jackson is likely out for this game, but Alshon Jeffery has a real shot at suiting up this Thursday. That would be a big boost to Philadelphia’s offense since Nelson Agholor has not done well as the number one guy and tight end Dallas Goedert has disappointed thus far with just two catches and a bad drop in the end zone last week.

Still, the Eagles’ offense has a lot of weapons. Carson Wentz is an elite quarterback and he has a very respectable backfield with Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles and rookie Miles Sanders. Tight end Zach Ertz is also very tough to defend.

Even though the Packers’ defense has done extremely well this year by allowing no more than 16 points in all three games, I feel they are going to regress to the mean and allow enough points for Philadelphia to cover the spread, or even win the game.

Notice that both Packers running backs are banged up, as Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones were listed as limited participants in practice Monday. They should be ready to go, but they are not super healthy either.

Green Bay will be playing a third straight home game, which is good for the rest factor.

Here is an interesting statistic: the Packers are 49-30 against the spread as home favorites since Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008. That 62% success rate ranks first in the NFL over that time period.

Still, I’m going with the Eagles. I find it difficult to bet against a very desperate team, especially when this squad has so much talent. Take advantage of this play while the Eagles have lost the bettors’ confidence, which has definitely impacted the line. I do believe there is much less than a 50% chance that Green Bay wins by 5 points or more, so I’m betting Philadelphia in this one.

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

All right, we got it! Let's see if we keep our winning ways this weekend!