It's not often a result from 14 years ago can be the main reason for a pick. However, that's the case in this particular situation. In 2005, the Broncos came to Miami for a Week 1 clash with the Dolphins. At the time Mike Shanahan was entering his 11th season with Denver, had an excellent record (8-2 both SU & ATS) in Week 1 and the Broncos were a playoff team in 2004. The Dolphins, on the other hand, were coming off a miserable 4-12 season, had a new head coach and expectations were low. The highlight of their previous season came in Week 15 when they upset the Patriots 29-28 as a 9.5 point home underdog. Oddsmakers installed the Broncos as a 5 point favorite.
Fast forward to 2019 and we have Baltimore coming to Miami for the season-opener. John Harbaugh is entering his 12th year as Ravens head coach, has an excellent record in Week 1 (8-3 both SU & ATS) and the Ravens were a playoff team in 2018. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off another losing season, have a new head coach (Brian Flores) and the Over/Under for regular season wins is 5 (and you have to lay -140 if you like the Under). The highlight of their previous season came in Week 14 when they upset the Patriots 34-33 as a 9.5 point underdog. Oddsmakers have installed the Ravens as 4.5 point favorite.
Back in 2005, the effects of heat & humidity combined with lack of early-season conditioning were not part of my handicapping arsenal. I "took the cheese", unloaded on the Broncos and watched in disbelief as the Dolphins dominated from start to finish on their way to a 34-10 victory.
It is my belief that teams are not in "football shape" for Week 1. The only way to achieve the proper level of fitness is to play 4 quarters. That doesn't happen in preseason. Starters typically play a couple of series in Week 1, maybe a quarter and a half in Week 2, a full half plus a series or two in Week 3 and then they don't play at all in Week 4.
This is true for every team in the League and it is just accepted that they will work themselves into shape. However, the last place you want to go in the first week of September is Miami. The heat index is typically through the roof. That gives the home team Dolphins two distinct advantages (1) they are more used to the heat because they have to deal with it on an everyday basis, and (2) they get to wear the all-white uniforms. The Ravens will be coming in with their dark purple jerseys making the situation even more problematic.
When handicapping, it's always good to have multiple angles to support your selection. One of my favorites is "double revenge" and the Dolphins have that in spades. In 2016, they went to Baltimore as a 3 point dog and got smoked 38-6. In 2017 they went back to Baltimore, this time in a nationally televised Thursday night game, and got humiliated 40-0. This will be their first meeting since then. Who do you think has the motivational edge?
Look, I fully understand the Ravens are the better team and that they have covered 8 consecutive times against the Dolphins. In general, its not a good idea to buck a trend like that, but this is an exception. I expect the Ravens to come out flat as a pancake against this Dolphin team that they have no respect for. Combine that with the heat/conditioning factor, purple jerseys and the difficulty of preparing for a team with a brand new coaching staff and that's why the Dolphins are my Best Bet for Week 1 of the NFL season. For those who dare, the Dolphins are +180 on the Moneyline. Jump on it.
I've been looking at teasing the fins in many plays, have that feeling of having to take them as ravens will be backed heavily by public. good luck on the ml
good writeup. you got some valid points but i disagree with your final score lol they aint beating Ravens by 20+. this is either a Dolphin cover or an outright slim Dolphins upset where they win by 3 or 4 only if Ravens arent careful and it could possibly, situationally, set up as one because of the reasons you mentioned above. Ravens are 4-7 in season road openers under harbaugh...
while it seems easy to take Baltimore, its actually a tough game to cap for either side. both teams went through personnel changes, one for the better and the other for the worse. Ravens lost some veteran depth on defense but i think theyre still a top 10 defense and the new WR corp is still an unknown with this offense but it has potential. if i'm taking Miami i have to be concerned about two things: their offensive line and their defensive front seven. do they have the personnel to contain Lamar Jackson? Miami's run defense was so awful last year i dont see much changing plus they lost veteran edge rushers in Quinn and Wake. Dolphins O-line lost Juwann James.. that right side of the Dolphins looks leaky. the O-line performed poorly in camp and got their O-line coached fired.. the Dolphins overperformed at 7-9 last year but they were more like a 5-11 team, with a new coach there is a reason why their win total is in favor of Under 5 wins and best odds to finish last in the AFC East. the heat will be a factor no doubt for the visiting team but can Dolphins take advantage? maybe, but i wouldnt bet on it. Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown both lived near Miami for the majority of their lives so i think they understand what the weather is like.
i agree its hard to lay the chalk of more than a field goal on the road in a week 1 unless that team is the Patriots. this is a game im probably going to stay away from and i think there are better potential upset games on the week 1 slate with better value.
This is the exact same way I'm looking at that game. Had no idea about the parallels to 15 years ago though, great insight!
The Ravens are going to melt in the hot Florida sun and now every team has NFL game film on Lamar Jackson, as well as, how to confuse and beat him. The Ravens should be a 5-7 win team this year and have no business laying more than a field goal on the road to anyone. I won't play the ML, but Dolphins +4.5 (5 still on some books) looks like the right side.
Probably can't go too heavy on a team that projects to be one of the worst in the NFL this year. I also will not bet the Dolphins if Rosen is the week 1 starter. Should be Fitzpatrick, but we don't know for sure yet.
Can't risk the play. Yes MIA is 2- 0 since 2014 at home week 1, but BAL is 3-0 overall last 3. Too much turnover for MIA with new coach. Would rather try JAC getting the better of K.C. Less variation in personnel with same effects. Although I will admit as a former miami resident for 25 years it's painful with the humidity like no other place I've been to.
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DOLPHINS 33 Ravens 9
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