Darn those Chicago Bears and their excellent defense.
NFL defenses and betting Unders
The Bears had the best defense in the NFC last year. That wasn’t much of a surprise; it was the best defense in the entire league in 2005. So bettors naturally lined up to put big money on the Under, which was coming off a very tasty 10-4-2 season.
Whoops. Devin Hester spoiled the party by scoring six touchdowns on special teams, making the Bears the top scorers in the conference and propelling the Over to 11-4-1.
Such is life handicapping the NFL. Finding a team with a strong defense is a good start when playing the Under, but it takes a lot more work than that to cash in. Just ask anyone who supported the Bears. Or the Jacksonville Jaguars, where the Under went 7-9 last year. Or the Minnesota Vikings (7-7-2), or the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-9-1). All of them finished in the Top 10 in the NFL in terms of defensive efficiency, but failed to drive the Under to the pay window.
The trap novice bettors fall into is thinking that the posted total is a reflection of how good a team is at scoring points or keeping them off the board. Rather, it is a reflection of how good the entire betting public thinks a team is. Bad or good, as long as a defense outperforms expectations, the Under will be more likely to cash in. The Atlanta Falcons were ranked just 17th in efficiency last year, yet that was a big improvement over 2005 when they were 28th in the league. That difference was one of the reasons the Falcons led the Under to an 11-4-1 mark, the most profitable in the NFC.
Another reason was the drop in scoring. With just nine rushing touchdowns, and with Michael Koenen proving he’s a much better punter than a kicker by going 3-for-9 on field-goal attempts, Atlanta put up 3.7 fewer points per game in 2006 than the previous season. In the case of the Falcons, the underperforming offense and special teams put even more pressure on the Under than the improving defense.
One way or another, the score has to stay low for the Under to cash in. That’s the defense’s job, and if you can find a defense that is going to improve from good to great, preferably out of the spotlight of the national media, you have a much better chance of hitting the Under than by merely supporting a club that has already established itself among the defensive elite. Two teams in the easily overlooked AFC West happen to fit that category in 2007: the Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers.
Mike Shanahan is known more for his variation of the West Coast offense, but the Denver defense has been one of the better units in the league through most of Shanahan’s 12 years in the Mile High City. Last year was no exception, but things weren’t quite up to the usual specs, especially against the run.
Shanahan is serious about putting together a Super Bowl-caliber team; he hired Jim Bates to run the defense, traded for cornerback Dré Bly, signed 350-pound tackle Sam Adams and geared this year’s draft to improving the defensive line. That line was ranked 22nd in terms of efficiency in 2006; Scouts Inc. has this year’s model ranked 11th overall.
Denver may have taken a backseat to the Chargers, who have already ensconced themselves as a top Super Bowl favorite. But the Chargers themselves have quietly gone about their business while the national media focuses on New England’s 'dynasty' and Michael Vick’s legal battles. Having league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson around is another great way to keep the microphones at bay. Their storylines are taking attention off a San Diego defense that allowed just 18.9 points per game last year.
It could have been even better. The Chargers were ranked just 14th in defensive efficiency in 2006. Losing stud linebacker Shawne Merriman to a four-game suspension hurt. So did the six-game absence of potential breakout candidate Luis Castillo (ankle) from the defensive line. Castillo was nonetheless assigned as a Pro Bowl alternate, while Merriman was controversially named to the AFC team as a starter.
Imagine the havoc the two could unleash on opposing offenses in a full season.
Minnesota might be a team early in the season to look at the Unders. The Vikes will not get much publicity and that team is going to be better across the board this season.
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NFL defenses and betting Unders
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