Patriots or Rams? NFL execs predict the Super Bowl LIII winner


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The picks are in for Super Bowl LIII.


Five NFL coaches and evaluators provided extensive insights in addition to picking winners for the looming matchup between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams. Their picks were not unanimous, but with five votes, one team was bound to come out ahead of the other -- just as will be the case on Sunday in Atlanta.
1. Personnel director No. 1: Get Gurley going!

I think the Rams will win it simply because their defense is playing extremely well. They will be able to rush on the interior and make it tough for [Tom] Brady to step up in the pocket. I think they will generate some rush with the edge. Also, their secondary is good enough to match up with those New England guys. Offensively, they have a couple of weapons. If [Todd] Gurley is healthy, as he says he is, he and [C.J.] Anderson are a two-headed monster, and the Rams have some weapons on the perimeter. It'll be a good game.


New England will try to take away Gurley and that running game and put it on [Jared] Goff's shoulders. Goff has had games where he was able to do it, and he has had games where you question whether he can do it. I think he will do a good enough job, and they will do some things creatively to get Gurley the ball as both a runner and a receiver. It'll be a good chess match, but at the end of the day, the Rams are clearly the more talented team.


The teams that beat up on New England are the teams that can win the line of scrimmage. I think the Rams' defensive line can win that line of scrimmage, and I think they can block the Patriots' guys for the most part.


The pick: Rams



2. Head coach: Pats will be possession monsters

I like the Patriots to win, maybe 31-17. The Rams have gotten big plays on the throwback screens. New England has two weeks to take those things away, and the Pats are not letting them get a big play on the screens. The Rams are going to have to make big plays down the field, which they have done. I just don't know how many they will get. What's scary for the Rams is New England has run more plays than any other team in the NFL. The Pats had 90-some plays against Kansas City. If they run more than 80 plays, the Rams won't have the ball enough to score enough to win.


The Detroit game [30-16 Rams victory in Week 13] was telling because the Rams struggled to move the ball. It is the same style, the same scheme that Belichick runs. You know Matt Patricia and Belichick are talking. The difference in that game was the Rams got a sack-fumble in the fourth quarter to pull away, but it was a close game until then.


Where New England has improved the most is in pass protection. Part of that is because the Pats are running the ball. I know the Rams have shored up their run defense, but I would not be surprised if New England ran the ball well on them. And then those high-percentage passes Brady keeps completing don't seem like big plays, but it is Gronk [Rob Gronkowski] for 7 yards, the back for 8 yards. Pretty soon, they've had the ball for six minutes.

The pick: Patriots



3. Personnel director No. 2: Watch the McDaniels-Phillips chess game

If L.A. does win, it will be because its speed shows up more than New England's speed on this turf. I'm very intrigued with the controversy surrounding the Todd Gurley knee and the team saying he is fine, Gurley saying he is not playing [as much] because of a lack of production and Gurley not being on the injury report. That seems odd because he hasn't looked like himself all the time. C.J. Anderson is solid, but he is not the explosive player that he was in Denver.


One way you can beat L.A. is through physicality and establishing a run game and not getting into known passing situations so that defense can tee off on you. I feel like New England will be able to run the ball and be physical in that sense. I think Wade Phillips is a great defensive coordinator, but I also think he is a simple defensive coordinator. Josh McDaniels will have some different stuff to exploit what the Rams do. I think that is an advantage.


Tom Brady is not coming out and picking on Aqib Talib. He is not because Talib can burn him. Who stops Gronk? That is what it boils down to. The Rams have Lamarcus Joyner at safety, and he is their franchise player, but he is 5-foot-9, and they do not have a big safety presence. What if you put an Aqib Talib on Gronk or do something like that? That will be interesting.


In the end, I can't pick against New England in these situations.

The pick: Patriots



4. Veteran coordinator: Brady must remain patient

I think it's going to be a good game. The Rams will do OK early, but I think Goff is going to struggle in the second half, and I think the Patriots will prevail. The biggest problem that the Rams are going to have is being able to protect Goff with all these stunts that the Patriots run. Everything the Rams set up is predicated on wide zone and play-action to hold these guys out. Because of the way the Patriots attack them, they will give Goff some problems.


The Rams' offensive line is very good against certain teams. They are big, and they move laterally, but if you have a team that can penetrate and get after those guys and isolate them, they are not as good. New England has trended toward becoming that type of defense.


Then I think the Patriots' offensive line is better than anticipated. It comes down to how the Rams can cover the Patriots. Because of how Wade Phillips plays his coverages, I have felt as though his defense has been susceptible to checkdowns to the backs. The Rams are trying to take away the receivers down the field, and they do not think you are patient enough to throw it to the back over and over. That is one thing Brady is going to do.


The pick: Patriots



5. Defensive assistant coach

I like the Rams' youth and speed, but the imbalance of playoff experience that New England has compared to the Rams really stands out. That triumvirate of Bill [Belichick], Josh [McDaniels] and Brady is formidable for any opponent. I can't pick against those guys with two weeks.


The history between Wade [Phillips] and Josh is intriguing. Go back to the AFC Championship Game in Denver [2015 season], and look at the punishment Wade's defense dished out on Brady. New England had about 60 passes, and in the first 25 plays, the Broncos picked off Brady twice, sacked him twice and hit him as he threw another time. But with 12 seconds left in the game, Brady's going for the two-point conversion to tie -- amazing!


The next year, Atlanta has Brady down 25. It's right where you want to have a guy, unless it's No. 12 with two hands over his earholes, listening to Josh. On the other side, this is a great test for [Sean] McVay and [offensive line coach Aaron] Kromer because New England plays unique fronts. It can be stressful. Then New England plays man coverage so many ways and with such disciplined disguise that the Pats make the quarterback work. McVay might not have a big advantage above the 15-second cutoff.


L.A. has a large package of contracted formations with stacks and bunches. It's harder to play man coverage against those, but New England with two weeks can get good at staying in man and working on pickups. Ask Seattle how that went in the Super Bowl a few years ago. New England can sneak in there and pick off the ball if you are not careful.


It's going to take a great sustained effort by the Rams to pull it off. The resilience of the New England quarterback and the big experience advantage makes me side with New England.


The pick: Patriots