[Fade2Win]

"The Houston Texans' Deshaun Watson, Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson and Chicago Bears' Mitchell Trubisky all made their NFL postseason debuts during last weekend’s first round, and each one of them saw their playoffs end there."

[DJK]

"The Houston Texans' Deshaun Watson, Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson and Chicago Bears' Mitchell Trubisky all made their NFL postseason debuts during last weekend’s first round, and each one of them saw their playoffs end there."

That information is probably put out by the books, so people take more on the Colts.

In my opinion, you are comparing apples and oranges.

Mahomes II is head and shoulder above all those QB's. If Chicago had Patrick, then they would still be in the playoffs. Same with Baltimore and possibly even the Texans.

[Fade2Win]

already 3-0 last week I just now found this article now though maybe the tide turns? Im sticking with it Chiefs haven't won a home game since joe montana. Dallas is hot 8 of last 9 or w/e it is.Rams stock been going down for awhile. Looks square as hell but oh well

[DJK]

already 3-0 last week I just now found this article now though maybe the tide turns? Im sticking with it

Last week was rather easy for NFL except for Seattle vs Dallas, which was a total fluke that Seattle covered.

My angle is that whoever took Dallas last week must be pissed as hell what they did and they may go against them this time around and that's when they cover.

If they screwed you like that when you took Dallas, then stick with them again at least twice I say.

[Fade2Win]

Id be shocked if I didnt win one hot right now if you look at my post history havent lost in playoffs. yet lol

[Fade2Win]

I got a push on dallas btw

[Cuse0323]

Based on those information I will still stick with the original ML parlay.

Dallas +7-110
Kansas City ML-225
New England ML-215
New Orleans ML-400

Pays +405, so $500 to win $2,025.11.

But if I find out it's true that all wiseguy/sharp monies are on the Colts, then remove that from the parlay, so

Dallas +7-110
New England ML-215
New Orleans ML-400

Pays +249, so $500 to win $1,248.

Love this parlay. Those are all the plays that I like. I’d keep the Chiefs. GL.

[DJK]

In last year's WC and DIV rounds, whoever covered the WC round did not in the DIV round.

Whoever won SU but didn't cover in the WC round covered in the DIV round.

It's same shit the year before.

So, who covered this year's WC round?

Indianapolis
LA Chargers
Philadelphia
Seattle but they lost as Dallas won SU but didn't cover

So, in the DIV round, it's going to be

Kansas City
New England
New Orleans
Dallas

Do you like my logic?

[DJK]

Id be shocked if I didnt win one hot right now if you look at my post history havent lost in playoffs. yet lol

So, who are you siding with then? Sorry, too lazy to go through all your posts to see what you are taking.

[Fade2Win]

Need to backtest it more imo might be something there

Taking cowboys and colts straight up GL

I do like cowboys way more you made a good point about mahomes still fading him

[DJK]

In last year's WC and DIV rounds, whoever covered the WC round did not in the DIV round.

Whoever won SU but didn't cover in the WC round covered in the DIV round.

It's same shit the year before.

So, who covered this year's WC round?

Indianapolis
LA Chargers
Philadelphia
Seattle but they lost as Dallas won SU but didn't cover

So, in the DIV round, it's going to be

Kansas City
New England
New Orleans
Dallas

Do you like my logic?

The way I see it, when Indy covered rather easily against the Texans, Kansas City knows it and they will prepare as best as they can while Indy may be relaxing a bit since they won so easy.

As for Dallas, they barely won and the Rams know it and they beat the Hawks twice already, so they are probably thinking ehhh, we can beat these guys.

Had Dallas crushed Seattle, then the Rams will be all wide-eyed and practice like crazy and get ready for the Cowboys.

As for the Chargers, they are feeling really good about themselves beating up on a team that can't throw for shit. They have another thing coming this weekend against the hoody and Brady.

[kovacs bar]

In last year's WC and DIV rounds, whoever covered the WC round did not in the DIV round.

Whoever won SU but didn't cover in the WC round covered in the DIV round.

It's same shit the year before.

So, who covered this year's WC round?

Indianapolis
LA Chargers
Philadelphia
Seattle but they lost as Dallas won SU but didn't cover

So, in the DIV round, it's going to be

Kansas City
New England
New Orleans
Dallas

Do you like my logic?

So it's all scripted.

[DJK]

Damn, what do you know...

It's the same shit three years ago in 2016 where all teams who covered in the Wild Card round did NOT in the Divisional round. What gives?

It's 3 out of 4 the year before in 2015.

It's murky in 2014 and 2013 but at worst it's 50%.

Only in year 2012, 3 out of 4 who covered in WC covered in DIV and it must have been a lopsided year as the spreads were rather high at -3.5, -14, -8, and -8 in the Divisional round.

[Fade2Win]

One more thing Kansas city giving up 5 yards per carry with that terrible run defense Marlon Mack has been crushing last 3 of 4 weeks should have a field day you would think. Could easily see Mahomes play his ass off and the defense loses them the game.

[DJK]

So it's all scripted.

I have the stats to back it up. See my post above.

[DJK]

One more thing Kansas city giving up 5 yards per carry with that terrible run defense Marlon Mack has been crushing last 3 of 4 weeks should have a field day you would think. Could easily see Mahomes play his ass off and the defense loses them the game.

The thing with Kansas City is that if they jump ahead 2 TD's, then it may force Indy to abandon the run and start chucking. The years that Reid lost in the playoffs, he never had a QB like Mahomes II, correct?

[DJK]

Indy hasn't played anyone recently who can pass like Mahomes II, so it will be interesting to see how they respond when Kansas City is racking up points.

[kovacs bar]

I have the stats to back it up. See my post above.

Beats the fock out of studying injury reports, blocking schemes, route charts, weather and on field match ups.


That stuff don't matter anyway.

[Fade2Win]

Interesting numbers there... I hear ya very true but Chiefs last 3 primetime games Lost 28-29 to chargers, Lost 51-54 to Rams great defensive showing lol, Loss 40-43 to the Pats... defense getting shredded in primetime small sample and they won the other primetime game at Denver losing team early in the season. Defense did play better at home vs chargers compared to other two games on the road lol.Total mindfk just gonna stick with those two haha GL man

[jjgold]

Every game is a new game

[DJK]

Beats the fock out of studying injury reports, blocking schemes, route charts, weather and on field match ups.


That stuff don't matter anyway.

Unfortunately, for my betting purpose, they do not.

Think long think wrong comes to mind.

If studying all of that makes us consistent winners, then we would all be rich.

[DJK]

Interesting numbers there... I hear ya very true but Chiefs last 3 primetime games Lost 28-29 to chargers, Lost 51-54 to Rams great defensive showing lol, Loss 40-43 to the Pats... defense getting shredded in primetime small sample and they won the other primetime game at Denver losing team early in the season. Defense did play better at home vs chargers compared to other two games on the road lol.Total mindfk just gonna stick with those two haha GL man

All good valid points. That's why I'm leaving them out of my ML parlay altogether.

Come the game time and I'm up playing casino games and I have nothing else to do, then I might just throw some on KC ML whatever I'm up. Or, if the latest tweet has a lot more money on the Colts, then I will bet the spread on KC.

[kovacs bar]

Anyone can draw a correlation.

Few can support them.

Results are the correlation not the reason.

[DJK]

Sorry, I misread the last tweet from Jason Simbal. More money on KC and not Indy.

So, Indy it is then. Thanks for persuading me. I hope you win, which means I win.


All I can say is that the Saints better not lay an egg as they will be the last leg of my parlay and they may put me in yet another hedge situation.

[LuckyProphet]

Don’t look to much into it and go with you’re own gut instincts. One team is going to to win, one is going to lose. Pick the team you think is going to win and if you don’t like betting ML than ask yourself if the spread is accordingly. I find to many people are on the wrong side of the spread and do themselves injustice just because they try to squeeze every penny out of there bet. Just go for the Ml and you’ll end up winning more than betting spread. Unless you’re a great handicapper go with the ML

[KiDBaZkiT]

Do you believe that?

If it's really true, then why in hell is KC line moving up?

The books are telling the wiseguys to bet more on the Colts?

It's the same scenario with the Pats and their line went down from -4.5 to -4.0.


Monies*

Do yourself a favor and never watch any of those crap shows. There are no such thing as "wiseguys"

[DJK]

Do yourself a favor and never watch any of those crap shows. There are no such thing as "wiseguys"

Actually, I hardly watch any TV at all. If I wasn't betting on games, then I probably never watch TV except for Fox News.

I was bored, so I was just flipping through the channels and that show popped up and today is the first day I have seen it and they just happened to say what's in the thread title, so I was just asking.

I don't put much stock in what they said, but it does concern me when the side I'm taking has a lot more money on it.

Just like what people are afraid on here that when everyone's on the same side, they would say that they are in trouble.

[importmoon]

here's my question if you think teams with more action always lose then obviously equates to the game was fix...on the other token then why you have to study day and nite about the playoff stats you can throw them out the window.. meaning if there was 20 inches of snow and the weather was sub zero you should take the over vice versa sunshine and 70's take the under.. you are contradicting yourself.. I rest my case...

[pilebuck13]

Also, Jason Simbal tweeted the following. I guess I need to play all favorite ML parlay then. All home teams are favorites, too. What can possibly go wrong?

The current splits @CGTechnology_ Colts/Chiefs: 64% of bets on Indy, 55% of money on KCCowboys/Rams 51% of bets on Dallas, 62% of money on LARChargers/Pats: 56% of bets and 83% of money on LACEagles/Saints: 55% of bets on Phi, 73% of money on NO

Liability to all ML dogs

Lol the minute you quit reading all these garbage stats the better

[pilebuck13]

Actually, I hardly watch any TV at all. If I wasn't betting on games, then I probably never watch TV except for Fox News.

I was bored, so I was just flipping through the channels and that show popped up and today is the first day I have seen it and they just happened to say what's in the thread title, so I was just asking.

I don't put much stock in what they said, but it does concern me when the side I'm taking has a lot more money on it.

Just like what people are afraid on here that when everyone's on the same side, they would say that they are in trouble.

Just because more people lose more then they win it’s not that complicated

[Cuse0323]

Worrying too much about where the money is. The public is right sometimes. Books can give out a winner early. They’ll get it back. Though, not on the Saints unless the money is on the Eagles. Liking me some favorites. Square as can be the Chiefs, Pats, Saints. Think the Boys are the live dog.

[pilebuck13]

Worrying too much about where the money is. The public is right sometimes. Books can give out a winner early. They’ll get it back. Though, not on the Saints unless the money is on the Eagles. Liking me some favorites. Square as can be the Chiefs, Pats, Saints. Think the Boys are the live dog.

[importmoon]

it all comes down to 1 word...PERCENTAGE... if you win 1 and lose 1 you still lose and that's a good outcome already if you on a losing streak you are dog meat.. and if you on a winning streak God bless you .. I don't believe in the word LUCK... the only edge you have upon the books are you can quit anytime you want meantime the books have to open 24/7 but the question is how many of you can quit when you were up.At the end of the day you will give it all back then some. if you ask me I do believe some games were fix. The big games like playoffs. NCAA final four etc... For example final minutes of half time the losing team always had the ball and that will makes it mort interesting. Nowadays they will make 1 game into 2 after half time because they want more action after half time for live bets. Of course these are my own humble opinion after 42 years of gambling experience.