NFL Week 13 early betting look: Where the AFC stands after Steelers loss, Gordon injury

Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Week 12 feels like the fourth or fifth week now this season that has been dominated by favorites winning and covering the spread. Only four underdogs won games this past week -- the Bills, Browns, Seahawks and Broncos -- and they were all involved in games with lines of a field goal or less.


Of the nine favorites that won their games, seven covered the spread. We feel primed for a big underdog weekend, but the parity in the NFL seems as diminished as ever this season. The last thing we want to do as bettors is find ourselves looking solely for one type of bet, i.e., underdogs. But I have a feeling that scenario is where the value in the numbers will lie this week after the favorites dominated once again.


Let's dive into some of the details that stuck out to me from Week 12 -- and we'll look at how we can apply them to our betting process for Week 13.
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story

Team A: 527 yards, 6.9 yards per play, 17 points
Team B: 308 yards, 5.8 yards per play, 24 points
The Pittsburgh Steelers went into Denver this past Sunday on fire, holding a sizable lead in the AFC North. It felt like a "prove it" matchup for the Steelers against the Broncos, who returned home after upsetting the Chargers in Los Angeles. It's never easy to play in Denver, and I was intrigued to see what type of Pittsburgh performance we would see in this type of spot. Well, we saw one that appeared to be lazy with a lack of focus.


It is extremely tough to move the football in Denver at the rate the Steelers did. They gained more than 500 yards of offense, gave up just 308, and still lost. The 6.9 yards per play would rank second in the NFL this season (Kansas City has 7.0 YPP). The lack of focus came in the turnover department. Pittsburgh turned the ball over four times and didn't force a single one of their own. We have seen Big Ben have games like this in the past, so it should not come as a surprise, ultimately, but after it happened in Week 11 in Jacksonville, I expected to see fewer mistakes. They escaped with a win regardless against the Jaguars, but they were unable to get away with that much against the Broncos.


I mentioned in the column last week that the Steelers actually lead the NFL with a +1.2 YPP differential. They are the only team that ranks top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are all still true points (although the Chargers took a slight lead in the net YPP department after demolishing the Cardinals on Sunday and now sit at +1.3). Don't let this final score fool you. The costly mistakes and turnovers are annoying as a spectator, but Pittsburgh has certainly proved that it should be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender.
Buy/sell

So I bought the Chargers as a legitimate Super Bowl contender coming out of the AFC two weeks back, and there really isn't any reason for me not to buy the Steelers at this point. They are the two best teams in the conference (Melvin Gordon injury pending). I know this goes against what everybody is saying these days about the NFL, but I do still think defense holds importance, at least to some degree, and I will give the edge to vastly better defenses when the offenses are similarly rated.
To be fair to Chiefs fans, the defense has improved quite a bit since the start of the season and now ranks 21st in defensive efficiency. But the Chargers sit 10th and the Steelers fifth. It may take a team like Pittsburgh to actually slow down this Kansas City offense. If that is the case, does anybody actually trust the Chiefs to do the same to the Steelers offense?


I looked around and found Super Bowl futures prices as high as +1450 on Pittsburgh. With the Gordon MCL sprain and a likelihood that he misses the rest of the regular season, it is tougher for me to get behind the Chargers' futures at this point, considering they sit behind Kansas City in the division and likely won't have home field advantage in the playoffs. There isn't a remarkable edge to be had at +1450, but my projection currently has the Steelers winning the Super Bowl 8.5 percent of the time, which equates to a true line of +1076.


The Bengals and Ravens are both dealing with quarterback injuries and there just isn't any reason to think Pittsburgh squanders its 1.5-game division lead. I only see the Super Bowl price dropping from here before the playoffs begin, so it's now or never in my opinion.
Early line moves: Week 13


Move I agree with: The Cowboys opened +7.5 against the Saints in their home matchup on Thursday Night Football. As gut-wrenching as it has been to bet against the Saints this season for bettors, it's also unlikely that professional bettors will stay away from value and opportunity. As the line moves towards +7, getting the hook on an especially key number is definitely warranted, even if it is against New Orleans. My projection for the game is Dallas +5.3, so for anyone that was able to jump on that -- or still can -- I think it is an edge worth betting.

Move I disagree with: It has been a while since I mentioned the Steelers and the Chargers, so here we are. With Gordon officially ruled out for Los Angeles, I was surprised to see this number move from Pittsburgh -3.5 to -3 at -120. My raw number in this matchup is Steelers -4.4, and Gordon is definitely worth something to the point spread (0.9 points for me, conservatively). I'm going to be backing the Steelers at -3 and -120 here in Week 13 and anticipate this number moving back up before kickoff.
Slate standout: New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings


The game that really stands out the most is probably the Steelers-Chargers, but they have been discussed plenty to this point. I actually think Cowboys-Saints is another great matchup and we could see Dallas surprise New Orleans, but Patriots-Vikings deserves some love as well.


"It's about time Preston, you didn't even mention the GOAT in New England when you went over AFC Super Bowl contenders!"


OK, this is a fair point if anyone was actually thinking it. I won't ever count out Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The metrics at this point in the season, however, point to the other teams being better than the Patriots this year, and the Patriots have had the benefit of a weaker schedule. It's ultimately going to be tough for New England to win games against much stiffer competition when they currently only gain 5.8 yards per play and allow 5.7. They will get healthier -- I understand that too. They seem to do this type of thing every season, to some degree. The difference this year is that it isn't just the Steelers to worry about, but two more legitimate additions in the mix in Kansas City and Los Angeles.


The Vikings are in a great spot after their win over Green Bay on Sunday night and are my favorite to earn the first wild-card spot in the NFC. With the way the Bears continue to play, this could wind up being a big deal if the first-round matchup for Minnesota is against the eventual NFC East representative instead of Chicago. This can obviously change dramatically through these next two weeks against New England and Seattle, with both of those games on the road. The Seahawks are on fire, so a nonconference game against the Patriots can't be overlooked.


My projection for the game is Minnesota +4.3 and 49.8 for the total. While +6 is slightly high, I wouldn't be putting any money on the Vikings unless a +7 were to pop up, which I don't envision happening. I agree with the early move on the total from 48 to 48.5, but there isn't ultimately much value there, either. I'll be following along during the game for opportunities to bet this game live.