Best bets for Titans-Texans

Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Where does the betting value lie in Monday's prime-time matchup between the Titans and Texans? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their analysis to help you place your bets.


Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4)

Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Houston
Sharp: Tennessee's offense was a tragedy in the first half last week when Marcus Mariota was still playing, recording just a 44 percent success rate passing, taking four sacks and averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Mariota was accurate (10-of-13) but everything was short thanks to the pressure applied by the Colts' defense. That's a bad look heading into Houston, as Indianapolis' pass rush was bottom-10 in the league, while Houston has a top-10 unit.


The Texans have been skating by narrowly in many games, and the Titans know how to play them, winning three of their last four matchups. Catching over 3.5 points is enough value to suggest a lean toward the Titans. That said, if Mariota is not at 100 percent or gets reinjured, it changes the entire outlook as we saw last week.


Lean: Titans +4


Johnson: Mariota will play despite leaving the game in Indianapolis in Week 11 with an apparent neck injury. His status also lines up with the move this week from Tennessee +6 to the +4 it currently sits at. My projections are Texans -4.3 with a total of 41.7, so there isn't any value to be had in this matchup.


I think a popular narrative will be that the Texans have won seven in a row, but that they've been lucky in doing so. This isn't really false, either, as Houston won four of these games by a field goal or less. I want to make it clear, however, that this doesn't automatically make them worth betting against. You always need to have an idea of where the market number should be to gauge if a team is truly being overvalued. In this case, I don't think it is (despite the team's recent good fortune). I'm staying away.


Pick: Pass