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Best Bets On Week 11 NFL Games
Best bets on Week 11 NFL games
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 11 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at Detroit Lions
Total: 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Carolina
Johnson: It's tough sometimes to go back to the well and back teams that cost you money the previous week. I bet the Lions at +7 in a losing proposition in Week 10 against Minnesota. The Panthers got smashed in Pittsburgh on Thursday night, and maybe people are anticipating a bounce-back performance against an inferior team, but Detroit isn't that inferior. This opened Carolina -3.5 and has been bet up to -4.5 so far, but my numbers for this game make the Panthers -1.3. I will be making a bet on the Lions at +4.5 or better.
Pick: Lions +4.5
Sharp: The problem for the Lions in this game is thatI don't know if they can replicate the Steelers' successful game plan, which came from explosive passes. In two weeks since trading away Golden Tate, Detroit has recorded explosive pass rates of zero percent versus the Vikings and 4 percent versus the Bears. The Lions started the season posting explosive pass rates of 18, 10, 8 and 5 percent the first four weeks. The Panthers have played a number of mediocre offenses the past few weeks, so while offenses like the Falcons and Steelers gave them problems, their defense should contain Detroit.
Carolina's offense is centered around running the ball, and the Lions' run defense ranks 25th in the league. It is trending substantially better since the bye, and after allowing 50-plus percent rushing success rate to four of four teams they faced before the bye, they have held all four teams since then to sub-50 percent success rates on the ground.
Pick: Pass
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons(-3.5)
Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Dallas
Johnson: My Atlanta Super Bowl ticket at 70-1 took a hit this past Sunday after a loss in Cleveland. The plan was that the Falcons would win their next four and get to 6-4 before their rematch against the Saints in New Orleans in Week 12. With a home win over Dallas, the Falcons will be sitting 5-5 entering Week 12 and in a likely must-win spot on the road against one of the NFL's best teams. They may not recover from that Browns loss.
Looking at this matchup against Dallas, Atlanta deserves to be the favorite and my number lines up closely with the market at -3.3. It's a game that sets up to have both the strengths and weaknesses of these teams collide. The Falcons field one of the best offenses in the league, while the Cowboys' strength is on defense. Dallas ranks 25th in offensive efficiency and gets to face the 31st-ranked defense in the league.
Atlanta is the better team and playing at home, which is why they are a favorite of over a field goal, but there ultimately isn't any value for me betting this game.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The big factor for the Falcons' offense here is the loss of Sean Lee. In years past, Lee's absence caused many problems for the Cowboys' run defense, but that hasn't been the case this season. What it has done, however, is cause problems for their pass defense. And the Falcons have the No. 5-ranked pass offense, the best one Dallas has faced this year.
The Cowboys will certainly turn to the ground game to attack a weak Atlanta run defense. The Falcons also won't get LB Deion Jones back, a key cog on the defense who has been out for months. Look for Dallas to be productive on the ground and use its slow pace to control the game and stay within the number.
Lean: Cowboys +3.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Total: 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Tennessee
Johnson: I was shocked to see a Titans team that just handled the Cowboys on the road and the Patriots at home the past two weeks open as three-point 'dogs in Indianapolis. It didn't last very long. The current Colts -1.5 number is closer to where I project the spread to be (Colts -0.6).
I jumped the gun on Tennessee earlier this year when I wrote about offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur and the positive impact I expected him to bring to a squad that already fielded a stout defense (they've been ranked in the top seven all season long). The Titans got shut out at home by the Ravens the following week and I took the blame. Since then, they have two marquee wins and a one-point loss to the Chargers in London. Tennessee is going to make a run at the playoffs and I'm excited to watch it play out.
I believe the total of 49 is too high. I have a big edge showing on the under and bet it already in case we see a move down later this weekend. My projection comes in at 45.1, which is an automatic play in this instance. I know the Colts have put up bigger numbers recently against the Jaguars and Raiders, but this Titans defense is an entirely different beast. I'm going to take advantage of what I think is a severe market overreaction to the recent Indianapolis results and almost four points of value.
Pick: Under 49
Sharp: This game is a perfect illustration of why trending data matters, as does factoring in injuries. The Titans are a completely different team than they were the first half of the season and it is entirely because of Marcus Mariota's throwing hand, which is fully healed from the nerve damage that he sustained Week 1 and prevented him from making two starts. One of the more exciting developments in my mind over the second half of the season is watching what LaFleur does with this offense and a healthy Mariota.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts are on a roll, but that has come against three terrible teams, the Jaguars, Raiders and Bills. Prior to that three-game win streak, the Colts lost four in a row, dropping games to teams such as the Jets, Texans and Eagles. In a divisional game of this magnitude, where neither team can afford a loss given the current status in the AFC, I think this game is very close.
Lean: Titans +1.5
Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Houston
Johnson: I wrote about the Redskins game in Week 10 in my column this past Tuesday. If readers don't already know the intent of this section, I dive into more details within the box score to get a better understanding of the whole story a football game can tell us.
The point: Tampa Bay gained 503 yards, 29 first downs and had five trips to the red zone, while Washington gained 286 yards, 15 first downs and made just two trips to the red zone. Yet, the Redskins won the game 16-3. It could be argued that Washington has been the luckiest team in football to this point in the season. You know how hard it is to gain over 500 yards on offense, drive your way into the opponent's red zone on five separate occasions, and score only three points?
The Redskins simply aren't a very good football team. Their record says they are 6-3 and they sit atop the NFC East, but they have a point differential this season of +1. They rank 26th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and 21st in defense.
My feeling is that people will see the 6-3 Redskins getting three points at home and think it's too good to be true. Washington's record and turnover margin, however, are too good to be true. Don't get caught up buying in.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The 6-3 Redskins have won four of their past five games, but most of them have come against terrible defenses. In Washington's past six games, it has faced defenses that rank 32nd, 31st, 28th, 27th, 24th and 19th. The past two weeks, against the two worst defenses in the NFL, they gained just 286 total yards against the Bucs and 366 total yards against the Falcons. Now they must face the Texans' No. 3 defense, by far the best unit Washington has faced all year.
Houston's defense is likely not as good as it has looked, as the Texans have played the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Their offense should look good, though, because they are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and are facing a Redskins defense that ranks 28th against the run. Houston's passing game is fully healthy as well, and the Texans, off a bye, should be in a great position to perform on the road. At this number, though, I'll pass.
Pick: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-1.5)
Total: 53
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent picked New York
Johnson: The Giants were completely disrespected in the market last week when they faced the Nick Mullens-led 49ers and were 3.5-point underdogs -- the same spread they covered two games prior in Atlanta. New York was coming off of its bye week in San Francisco to boot. Unfortunately the time to buy low on the Giants was in that game and that game alone.
My number is exactly Giants -1.5 in this Tampa Bay matchup and lines up with the market perfectly. The total at 52.5 is spot on as well. The Buccaneers were extremely unlucky in Week 10 against the Redskins -- and a side I was hoping to back this Sunday -- but there isn't any worthwhile reason to bet on them when the numbers don't point to any edge to be had.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: It's shocking the Giants' offense ranks this badly considering they've played such a bad slate of opposing defenses. They face another bad defense on Sunday, as the Bucs visit and temperatures will be in the low 40s. Tampa Bay's explosive pass offense, the fifth best in the NFL, could give the Giants' pass defense problems (No. 27 in explosive pass defense). It doesn't help that New York has the NFL's worst pass rush.
The Giants should be productive offensively because they are facing the Bucs' 31st-ranked defense. Tampa Bay is without two key run-stopping linebackers in Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David, so Saquon Barkley should have a productive afternoon.
Pick: Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Pittsburgh
Johnson: I felt fortunate last week to grab the Jaguars +3.5 early and get a win in Indianapolis this past Sunday. Getting 5.5 points at home to the Steelers is slightly high again with my number coming in Pittsburgh -3.1.
The narrative all week will be that Pittsburgh is playing for double revenge after losing to the Jaguars last year in both the regular season and playoffs. People won't be wrong in the sense Steelers players will likely remember it and will use it to motivate themselves, but it doesn't mean that they are worth betting at an inflated number. I would only consider backing Jacksonville at the current price, but pocketing a fortunate win this past Sunday and sitting this one out is ultimately what I plan to do.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Last we saw the Steelers, they were crushing the Panthers in prime time 52-21. That was a lone bad defense sandwiched between good defenses. The Steelers have played four games against top-10 defenses and five against bottom-10 defenses, and the results have been extremely different. The offense managed an average win of 23-20 against the good defenses, and an average win of 38-26 against the bad ones. The Jaguars remain a top-10 defense, but they are trending much worse, particularly against the pass. The Steelers will likely go as far as Ben Roethlisberger takes them this Sunday.
The Jacksonville offense is struggling, but now has the services of RB Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars had the Steelers' number in both meetings last year and did so on the shoulders of a strong running game that set up play-action. Pittsburgh has played well defending the run against primarily average opponents. Like the Steelers' performance sits on Roethlisberger's shoulders, the Jaguars' sits on Fournette's. If he can't be productive, Jacksonville won't keep this one close.
Lean: Jaguars +5
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent picked L.A.
Johnson: The Chargers have been ridiculously good and it's time for me to admit it. They had been a preseason darling leading into each of the past three seasons. I made a conscious effort not to jump to any early conclusions this year, but the numbers don't lie at this point.
Los Angeles gains 6.9 yards every time they run a play on offense. This is tied for the NFL lead with both the Chiefs and the Rams. Defensively the Chargers rank 14th, which is actually better than the Chiefs and the Rams (by a sizable margin). At 7-2, who were their only losses to earlier in the season? The Chiefs and the Rams. They have improved since, especially on defense.
This doesn't mean that I will be jumping to bet Los Angeles blindly, though. My projection against Denver is Chargers -6.5. The line at -7 is close enough and I won't be getting involved, but there is a slight edge right now on the total at 46.5 (my line is 48.6). I will be eyeing this closely throughout the weekend and buying on the over at 45.5 or better if it keeps coming down.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Broncos are a good, bad team. While they are 3-6, they actually rank No. 9 in total efficiency. They have lost by more than seven points just once since Week 3, and that was a very odd 34-16 loss in New York to the Jets. In that span they played the Chiefs twice, the Rams and the Texans, and didn't lose any of those games by more than seven. The Broncos' defense will be tested against the No. 3 offense in the NFL, but that offense has won by more than one score against just three opponents this year: the Raiders, Browns and Bills.
Denver's offense will miss Demaryius Thomas, but Courtland Sutton has proved to be a solid contributor in the passing game already. In addition, the running game should get a boost with Chargers LB Denzel Perryman out for the rest of the season.
Lean: Broncos +7
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Arizona
Johnson: This number is crazy, just like the spreads have been in Raiders games in two of the past two three weeks (against the Colts and Chargers). Arizona was impressive in its Week 10 game in Kansas City coming off of its bye, so that could certainly play a part here as well. I should swear off betting Oakland, but my guess is this will get to +6 and I will have to jump in and place a wager. It opened Cardinals -3 and has already moved 2.5 points. I make this game Cardinals -1.4. It takes you-know-what to fire real money on this Raiders team, and I wouldn't blame anyone for passing altogether, but there is a significant edge showing on Oakland and it's supposed to be a bet.
The Raiders' defense is historically bad, but the Cardinals and Bills are tied for the league low in offensive efficiency this season (the worst since the Cardinals team in 2012). The Oakland defense bounced back from that debacle in San Francisco and held the Chargers to just 20 points in Week 10. They couldn't ask for a better matchup here for their biggest weakness on the defensive side. This hurts, and I'm playing it patiently waiting for a +6 potentially, but I've gotta still fire on Oakland.
Pick: Raiders +5.5
Sharp: Arizona is trending up after getting rid of Mike McCoy, who insisted on running David Johnson up the middle with regularity and predictability, and introducing Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator. On the season, with a rookie QB, the Cardinals have faced the third-most difficult schedule of pass rushes in the NFL. And since Week 5, the Cardinals have faced the toughest slate schedule of run defenses -- and it hasn't been close. The Cardinals now face the only bottom-10 pass rush they've faced all year. But the Raiders aren't just any bottom-10 pass rush defense, they are the worst in the NFL. Josh Rosen could look much better in this spot.
Meanwhile, in his last three non-home games, Derek Carr is averaging a 40 percent success rate, 6.7 YPA and has just one passing TD. The Raiders traded away Amari Cooper and Martavis Bryant was lost with a knee (PCL) injury and won't play this week. Jordy Nelson injured his knee last week against the Chargers and there is a chance he could miss this game. After playing the NFL's fourth-easiest schedule of pass rush defenses from Weeks 5-10, with multiple teams that rank 26th or worse, what is Carr going to do against the Arizona's No. 4 pass rush on the road?
Lean: Cardinals -5
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8)
Total: 56.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent picked New Orleans
Johnson: There were some Saints -9s that existed earlier in the week, but the majority of the market has come down some. It doesn't take much to move from -9 to -8 since neither are particularly key numbers, but I do agree with the move. My number for this game is Saints -6, so getting more than the touchdown with the Eagles has my attention. I'm conscious, however, that Philadelphia hasn't played up to expectations this season and New Orleans is playing very well (I luckily stayed off of the Bengals love last week).
The Eagles rank middle of the pack in rushing and passing categories, both offensively and defensively. As remarkable as their Super Bowl run was just last year, there isn't much that we can count on from this team at this point.
My total projection for this game is 53.2, but I am not confident I want to jump in and bet against this Saints offense again after getting embarrassed last week holding an under 54 ticket in Cincinnati. The total was also was bet up from the 54.5 open this week and there is a chance this keeps moving over the weekend.
I would call the Eagles +8 and under 56 "leans," but similarly to Kansas City earlier this season, I'm fine waiting for this Saints train to slow down before I step in front of it again. Doing so saved me money in a few spots early on.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: While the Eagles' offense has been frustrating, the bigger concern has been their defense. They started off the year as a top-five team against the run, but it turns out most of that was schedule related: Philadelphia faced four of the NFL's worst rushing teams in its first five games (Buccaneers, Vikings, Colts and Falcons). Philadelphia currently ranks No. 24 against the run despite playing the third-easiest schedule of offenses. The past three games, it ranks as the fourth-worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 5.9 YPC and a 56 percent success rate.
On the other side of the ball, this Eagles offense is likely going to become somewhat one-dimensional, although they should still try to stay somewhat balanced against the Saints' run defense, which ranks third, but against the fifth-easiest schedule of run offenses. Philadelphia is likely to find some success through the air, although it may not be as easy as initially expected. The Eagles like to run a lot of their offense through their tight ends, who have a whopping 38 percent target share. But the Saints are the NFL's No. 5 defense against tight ends, holding them to just 6.4 yards per attempt and a 45 percent success rate.
Pick: Pass
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