Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.
To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.
This is one of the trickier weeks remaining this season, as the biggest favorite -- the Carolina Panthers -- has just an 80 percent chance to win. The Kansas City Chiefs and Chicago Bears, who each feature second-year quarterbacks playing in road games, are each favored by at least 8.5 points -- making them two of the four biggest road favorites thus far in the season, according to Vegas. Top picks
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Panthers are the biggest FPI favorites of the week. They have won eight of their past 10 meetings against the Buccaneers, and their nine-game home winning streak is tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. The Buccaneers are turning back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who actually leads the NFL in yards per attempt, but Tampa's defense still ranks 29th in efficiency. This is also the best chance to use the Panthers. The only other time FPI gives them a 65 percent or better chance to win is Week 14 at Cleveland (67 percent).
Line: Panthers -6.5 FPI chance to win: 80 percent Eliminator Challenge: 21 percent selected Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills The Bills and Cardinals have separated themselves as the two worst teams in the NFL, and this is a tough spot for Buffalo. They are coming off a short week, and they're forced to return to Nathan Peterman at quarterback -- a player they showed so little confidence in that they benched him for Derek Anderson. The Bears haven't been this big of a favorite since 2012, and they haven't been this big of a road favorite since 2006, but they are the better team in all three units, and this is the most they will be favored in any game the rest of the year, according to FPI.
Line: Bears -9.5 FPI chance to win: 77 percent Eliminator Challenge: 19 percent selected Other Options
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns FPI views the Browns as the third-worst team in the NFL, making them one of the few teams where playing against them at home is viable. The Browns have lost 35 straight games as an underdog of at least a touchdown, dating back to the Eric Mangini era in 2010. However, the Chiefs host the Cardinals next week -- a game in which the FPI installs the Chiefs as a 93 percent favorite to win. As a result, it makes sense to save them one more week, especially considering they are on track to be the most popular selection this week.
Line: Chiefs -8.5 FPI chance to win: 78 percent Eliminator Challenge: 27 percent selected Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans The Cowboys haven't been this big of a favorite in Vegas in over a calendar year, but FPI still finds value on the Cowboys, as it sees them as 9.2-point favorites. The Titans offense has been a major disappointment this season, ranking 29th in efficiency. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 3-0 at home and 0-4 on the road this season. They also added Amari Cooper to the offense during their bye, who should improve what might be the worst wide receiver unit in the NFL. They do have a home game against the Buccaneers in Week 16, where they will be the third-biggest favorites of the week, so you can save them, but this is a week in which you can get a nice favorite at a low ownership number.
Line: Cowboys -6.5 FPI chance to win: 75 percent Eliminator Challenge: 8 percent selected Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions The Vikings are a nice contrarian play this week, as FPI still installs them as 75 percent favorites, yet they are likely to be less than 5 percent selected. The Lions have the better offense, but they just traded away Golden Tate and they have a significant disadvantage on the other side of the ball. The Vikings defense ranks first in efficiency, and the Lions rank 31st. One reason to think about saving the Vikings is that they still have a home game against Miami in Week 15, where they are 81 percent favorites, but the Vikings are still a fine play this week.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Best Week 9 NFL Eliminator picks
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Reply With Quote