Hey guys i got a game pick for you...and id get this one in as soon as possible, because i think the line will go up a few points by game time. I struggled with deciding whether to add the full game total cause i love the 2nd half total...anyways here it is
2nd half total OVER 19.5 @ 1.83
Full game total OVER 39.5 @ 1.87
Like i said i also like the full game total to go over 39.5 PFF Greenline has this game at 41.5 points, so far this year they've been 63.6% on there over/under. On a little side note there also 70% on money line picks and they have the Jets ML in this one.
The reason in my mind why the total is so low is because of a few reasons, but most importantly because both defenses our pretty good. The Jets in week 1 gave up 17 points against the Lions and in week 2 gave up 20 points to the Miami Dolphins. The Browns only gave up 21 points in week 1 to a potent Steelers offense and 21 points to the saints on the road. The Saints in week 1 put up 40 against the Tampa Bay Bucs.
I like total to go OVER because this is a ridiculously low number (39.5). With the NFL definitely trying to put an emphasis on teams scoring more points, I think that is exactly whats gonna happen. With the new leading with the helmet penalty, and there babying of quarterbacks and calling horrible roughing the passer penalties, I think it will make life very difficult for defenses. they're either going to go light on open field tackles or tackle poorly and incorrect, causing there to be more broken tackles and YAC. These new penalties are going to give easy yards to offenses and sustain drives which will in turn lead too more points across the board. There basically making it so hard to play defense, like on that Clay Matthews penalty at the end of the Vikings/Packers game. They called back an interception and gave the Vikings 15 yards which led to 8 points and Minnesota tying the game.
Well my 2nd half total hit and the full game total didnt. Both teams had tons of chances to put up more points and we were 2 points away. The Browns had the ball on the 34 yard line and decided to punt and try too pin the jets instead of kicking a 51 yard FG, which would have made the over cover.
In conclusion
2nd half total Over 19.5 @ 1.83 x 300= $550 win
Full game total over 39.5 @ 1.87 x 200= $200 lose
Vegas Dave system play from earlier this week, Bears -3 and browns -3 parlay @ 1.91 x 1.91 x 200= $730 win
Ill have more single bets and parlays hopefully coming out on Saturday, but i work like 80 hours a week at my law practice so they might come out Sunday morning..anyways i hope some of you made money on this game
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TNF Jets at Cleveland
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