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Ranking the NFL's hardest schedules, from 1-32

Aaron Schatz
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

Schedule strength means a lot when it comes to deciding who earns a postseason berth in the NFL. An easy schedule didn't hand Tennessee a playoff spot last season, but it was a big reason the Titans went 9-7 despite rating as a below-average team by Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings.

On the other hand, difficult schedules helped keep Green Bay and Washington at 7-9 instead of making them wild-card contenders. So it's important to know which teams will get a schedule boost in 2018.

Of course, it's tough to project schedules when we don't know how good teams will be in the future. We've done it here using our projections of Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, which account for general statistical trends and specific personnel changes. The numbers here come from an updated set of projections that account for preseason injuries and suspensions, plus that big Oakland-Chicago trade involving Khalil Mack.

These schedule projections may not agree with conventional wisdom because the Football Outsiders projections don't necessarily agree with conventional wisdom. For example, Jacksonville is expected to decline this year, while Indianapolis is expected to be stronger than in 2017. (For more on Football Outsiders' specific team projections, check out our book Football Outsiders Almanac 2018, available online, before the season begins.)

Of course, the strongest projected schedule for 2018 is only about half as strong as the hardest schedule from 2017, because our team projections are naturally conservative. Going into a new season, no team is guaranteed to be as good as last year's best team or as bad as last year's worst team. No, not even if that team is starting Nathan Peterman at quarterback.

Here are all 32 teams ranked in order from the hardest projected schedule to the easiest. Scroll through in order, or click a logo below to skip ahead to your team:

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1. Carolina Panthers

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 3.1 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-10 (at Eagles, vs. Ravens, vs. Bucs, at Steelers on short rest)

The four hardest projected schedules in the league belong to the four teams of the NFC South. Some of that is because their own division is strong, but they also play outside their division against the NFC East (where Philadelphia is the defending champion and the rest of the division should all be improved) and the AFC North (where our projections love Pittsburgh and even the bad teams should be closer to "mediocre" than "bad.")

The good news for the Panthers is that the difficulty of their schedule is fairly evenly distributed. An early trip to Atlanta is followed by a home game against Cincinnati. They have four road games out of five in Weeks 10-14, but as of now, those seem like their weaker opponents (including Tampa Bay and Cleveland). And they finish up by going Saints-Falcons-Saints, but two of those three games are at home.

2. Atlanta Falcons

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 2.7 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-14 (at Saints on short rest, vs. Ravens, at Packers)

Atlanta's home schedule is stuffed heavily into the start of the season, with five home games in the first seven weeks interrupted only by two trips to Pennsylvania: Thursday night's season opener in Philadelphia and Week 5 at Pittsburgh. After their Week 8 bye, the Falcons play six of their last nine games on the road, including the final pair at Carolina and Tampa Bay.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 2.7 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-4 (at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Steelers, at Bears on short rest)

Tampa Bay's schedule gets easier after midseason. In Weeks 1-9, the Bucs play five road games and the average projected opponent has a 3.8 percent DVOA. In Weeks 10-17, they play only three road games and the average projected opponent drops to 1.5 percent DVOA. The Bucs will play all three of their road division games in the first half of the season, then all three home division games in December.

4. New Orleans Saints

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 2.0 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-10 (at Ravens, at Vikings, vs. Rams, at Bengals off their bye)

We have the Saints projected as the best team in the NFC South, so essentially their schedule comes out fourth among the four NFC South teams just because they don't have to play themselves. The Saints also face both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at home instead of having to go on the road to Pennsylvania. The Saints' road schedule is fairly balanced, but the home schedule is backloaded with the Rams, Eagles and Falcons in November followed by the Steelers and Panthers in the final two weeks of the season. Also note that the Saints play on two consecutive Thursdays, Weeks 12-13, at home against Atlanta on Thanksgiving night before a trip to Dallas on Nov. 29.

5. New York Giants

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 1.8 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 3-7 (at Texans, vs. Saints, at Panthers off their bye, vs. Eagles, at Falcons)

New York's schedule is heavily frontloaded; six of its first seven games are against opponents that had winning records last year, including five playoff teams, and the other game is against the likely significantly improved Houston Texans. After two straight road games in Weeks 2 and 3, the Giants spend the entire rest of the season alternating road and home games. Small quirk: The Giants ranked fifth in 2017 schedule strength by average DVOA of opponent, making them the only team to rank the same in both 2017 and projected 2018 schedule strength.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 1.7 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 3-6 (at Panthers, at Falcons, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers)

Cincinnati is tied with Kansas City for the biggest jump in schedule strength: It ranked 21st in average opponent DVOA last season and moves up to sixth in our projections. The Bengals' schedule looks much harder by projections than it does by looking at last year's records because Cleveland is guaranteed to be better and Miami and Indianapolis are getting their starting quarterbacks back. The Bengals have only two games scheduled at a time other than 1 p.m. Eastern on Sunday: Week 2 on Thursday night (Sept. 13) vs. Baltimore at home and Week 14 (Dec. 9) at 4 p.m. Eastern at the Los Angeles Chargers.

7. Cleveland Browns

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 1.5 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 6-8 (vs. Chargers, at Bucs, at Steelers off their bye)

The Browns don't get a break from finishing winless last year, in part because one of the two games determined by finishing fourth in their division is against the heavily likely to improve Houston Texans. Otherwise, their own division plus the NFC South makes for a tough schedule. A late run to set the Browns up for playoff contention in 2019 could be tough; although they have a late bye in Week 11, four of their final six games are on the road.

8. Washington Redskins

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 1.3 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-14 (vs. Texans off their bye, at Cowboys on short rest, at Eagles, vs. Giants on short rest)

Washington plays two teams coming off their bye week, but both at home, with Atlanta in Week 9 and Houston in Week 11. It gets an early bye in Week 4, then a sort of "half-bye," as its Thanksgiving game against the Cowboys is followed by a Monday night trip to Philadelphia. Washington won't play an NFC East opponent until Week 7, and four of its last six games are against division opponents.

9. Arizona Cardinals

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 1.2 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-13 (at Chiefs, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Packers)

Arizona's schedule is a series of interesting splits, with the bye right in the middle at Week 9. Before the bye, the Cardinals play four of their six division games and have five of eight games at home. That includes their only prime-time appearance, hosting Denver on Thursday night of Week 7 (Oct. 18). After the bye, the Cardinals have to play most of their tough out-of-division games. They also have to play on the road five times in the last eight weeks, including three early road games at 11 a.m. Arizona time.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.7 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 14-17 (at Cowboys on short rest, at Rams, vs. Texans, at Redskins)

Based on Football Outsiders projections, the Eagles have the biggest difference in average opponent between the first half of the year (minus-2.5 percent) and the second half of the year (3.9 percent). After their Week 9 bye, the Eagles play road games against the Saints and Rams plus five games in their division, where all three teams should be improved from a year ago.

11. Detroit Lions

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.6 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 2-5 (at 49ers, vs. Patriots, at Cowboys, vs. Packers)

Detroit has one of the largest gaps between the average DVOA of its first eight opponents (3.3 percent) and the average DVOA of its last eight opponents (minus-2.2 percent). The annual Thanksgiving game, against Chicago this year, comes in the middle of a three-game homestand that also includes the Panthers and Rams. Detroit then finishes with three of four games on the road, but two of those come against easier opponents, Arizona and Buffalo, before the Lions finish at home with Minnesota and on the road against Green Bay.

12. Kansas City Chiefs

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.4 percentHardest schedule stretch: Week 4-6 (at Broncos, vs. Jaguars on short rest, at Patriots)

Kansas City is tied with Cincinnati for the biggest jump in schedule strength: It ranked 27th in average opponent DVOA last season and moves up to 12th in our projections. However, the toughest games are fairly spread out, with trips to Pittsburgh (Week 2), New England (Week 6), and Mexico City for a neutral-site game with the Rams (Week 11). While the league mostly stuffs division games into the second half of the season these days, Kansas City gets both of its games against Denver in October. The Chiefs will finish with three of their final four at home, including their last two division games (Chargers in Week 15 and Raiders in Week 17).

13. Seattle Seahawks

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.4 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 9-12 (vs. Chargers off their bye, at Rams, vs. Packers on short rest, at Panthers)

Five of Seattle's first seven games come on the road, although one of those (vs. Oakland in Week 6) is a neutral-site game. The Seahawks then finish with four of five games at home, including division rivals San Francisco and Arizona. Their hardest out-of-division matchups all come at home, including Dallas (Week 3), the Chargers (Week 9), Green Bay (Week 11) and Minnesota (Week 14).

14. Los Angeles Rams

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.3 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 5-9 (at Seahawks, at Broncos, at 49ers, vs. Packers, at Saints)

There are a lot of strange things in the Rams' schedule. They have a three-game homestand in Weeks 2-4 followed by a three-game road trip in Weeks 5-7. They play four of their six division games by Week 10 and have a very late bye in Week 12. And, of course, they lose a home game to Mexico City, facing Kansas City there in Week 11 (Nov. 19) in the former Battle of the Show Me State. However, the Rams' new high profile keeps them in national television slots and keeps them away from playing those 1 p.m. Eastern, 10 a.m. Pacific games. They have only two of them, back-to-back in Week 13 (at Detroit) and Week 14 (at Chicago).

15. Buffalo Bills

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.1 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-4 (at Ravens, vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Packers)

Buffalo's schedule comes out harder than the rest of the AFC East because the Bills' second-place finish earned them games with the Chargers (our projected AFC West champion) and the Ravens (while the Jets/Dolphins get to play the Browns/Bengals). Buffalo also has the most frontloaded schedule in the league, with opponent projections averaging plus-5.2 percent DVOA over the first eight games and minus-4.9 percent DVOA over the final eight games. That's partly because both Jets and Dolphins games come in November and December, along with the two weaker NFC North opponents (Bears and Lions).

16. Minnesota Vikings

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.1 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-14 (at Bears, vs. Packers, at Patriots, at Seahawks)

What's remarkable about Minnesota's schedule isn't the difficulty but the standard deviation, second in the NFL behind only that of the New York Jets. The Vikings have some games we forecast to be very easy, with opponents such as Arizona and most of the AFC East. Then they have some very difficult games, most of which are on the road. Along with the Week 11-14 stretch that includes trips to Foxborough and Seattle, the Vikings also have a Week 2-5 stretch where a home game against the Bills is sandwiched by trips to Green Bay, Los Angeles (to play the Rams on a short week) and Philadelphia. By the way, the Khalil Mack trade moved the Vikings' schedule rank from 22nd to 16th.

17. Dallas Cowboys

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.0 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-12 (vs. Titans off their bye, at Eagles off their bye and on short rest, at Falcons)

Other teams also play two opponents coming off their bye weeks, but the Cowboys have to do it in back-to-back weeks. And the first game is a Monday nighter! It seems a bit unfair to give the Cowboys only five days to prepare for a trip to Philadelphia while the Eagles get two full weeks. Dallas does get a three-game homestand in Weeks 12-14, but research has never shown a particular advantage to playing three straight at home (or a disadvantage to playing three straight on the road). Two of those three home games are on Thursday nights, with both Dallas and New Orleans getting a full week of rest between Thanksgiving (Washington at Dallas, Atlanta at New Orleans) and their Week 13 matchup on Nov. 29.

18. Chicago Bears

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: 0.0 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 14-17 (vs. Rams, vs. Packers, at 49ers, at Vikings)

It's an easier year for Chicago, which had the No. 1 hardest schedule of 2017 based on average DVOA of opponent. But the really easy part is the first half of the season. The Bears' opponents average minus-2.8 percent DVOA through Week 9, and then a positive 2.8 percent DVOA in Weeks 10-17. The Bears play all four of their games against the AFC East in four straight weeks, from Week 6 through 9. Only New England looks like a tough opponent, and the Bears get them at home. However, things change dramatically once we hit Week 10, mostly because the Bears have five of their six division games after midseason. By the way, if you want to put Khalil Mack homecoming day on your calendar, the Bears visit the Raiders in 2019.

19. Baltimore Ravens

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-0.1 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-9 (vs. Saints off their bye, at Panthers, vs. Steelers)

Baltimore is done with most of its division schedule by Week 11, as a final Week 17 home game against Cleveland is its only AFC North game in the final six weeks. The Ravens get a three home-game road trip that includes Pittsburgh and Tennessee, but we can't categorize that as the toughest stretch of the schedule because a trip to Cleveland is in the middle (Weeks 4-6). They also get four straight weeks at home in November, because their bye week comes in the middle of a three-game homestand. Also of note: Baltimore appears in prime time twice in September, then not again unless one of their late games gets flexed on a Sunday night.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-0.2 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 5-8 (at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, vs. Eagles in London)

The Jaguars' schedule is notable for how well spread out their division games are. Only once do the Jaguars go four weeks between AFC South opponents, and only once do they play AFC South opponents in consecutive weeks (home against Indianapolis in Week 13, then at Tennessee for Thursday night in Week 14). You can also look for a fast start from the Jaguars because they get a three-game homestand in September after their opener at the New York Giants.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-0.2 percentHardest schedule stretch: Week 14-16 (at Raiders, vs. Patriots, at Saints)

The AFC North schedules are really frontloaded this year, and the Steelers will have played five of their six AFC North games by Week 9. That puts the toughest out-of-division games in the second half of the season: at Jaguars Week 11, at Saints Week 16, and, of course, the team they never seem able to beat, the Patriots in Week 15. If you are looking for the annual game where the Steelers look like garbage against an inferior opponent and have everyone scratching their heads, I'll highlight Week 12's trip to Denver.

22. Denver Broncos

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-0.3 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-14 (at Chargers, vs. Steelers, at Bengals, at 49ers)

Denver doesn't really have any particularly hard stretches of the schedule, as the opponents we forecast to be weaker are well-interspersed with those we forecast to be stronger. The Broncos face the Raiders before the Ravens, the Jets before the Rams and the Bengals after the Steelers. For the division race, both Kansas City games are in October, while both games against the Chargers come after the Week 10 bye.

23. San Francisco 49ers

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-0.5 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 6-8 (at Packers, vs. Rams on short rest, at Cardinals)

In the middle of the season, San Francisco will have only one game in 23 days. It hosts Oakland on Thursday night, Nov. 1 (Week 9); hosts the Giants on Monday night, Nov. 12 (Week 10); and then gets Week 11 off for its bye before finally playing again in Tampa Bay on Nov. 25 (Week 12). The schedule sets up for another late-season surge, with a three-week homestand in December that includes the Broncos, Seahawks and Bears. The 49ers end at the Rams for the second straight year.

24. Oakland Raiders

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-0.6 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-14 (at Ravens, vs. Chiefs off their bye, vs. Steelers)

The Raiders are going to stay up late, and they are going to get up early. They get the late game of the opening-night doubleheader, at home against the Rams. Then they get not one, not two, but five games in the early broadcast window that works out to 10 a.m. in the Pacific time zone: four road games plus their London game against Seattle in Week 6. At least we know Jon Gruden is used to getting up that early.

25. Green Bay Packers

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-1.1 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 8-12 (at Rams, at Patriots, vs. Dolphins, at Seahawks on short rest, at Vikings)

Green Bay has the league's strongest year-to-year change in schedule strength. Last year, we ranked its schedule No. 2 in the league behind only Chicago's. All the schedules in the NFC North will get easier this season, but none more than the Packers. The Packers have an easier start (four of their first six games are at home) and a softer finish, but wow, is that a heck of a set of road games in the middle.

26. Tennessee Titans

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-1.8 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 9-12 (at Cowboys, vs. Patriots, at Colts, at Texans)

The Titans set up for a hot finish, as they get four of five December games at home, with the only road game coming at the Giants. Two of those are division games; the Titans will face division opponents in Weeks 2 and 3, then play the rest of their division games in Week 11 or later.

27. Los Angeles Chargers

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-1.9 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-15 (at Steelers, vs. Bengals, at Chiefs on short rest)

The Chargers are a popular playoff pick this year, but they have only one prime-time game currently scheduled: Week 15, a Thursday night contest against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers also have a game in London against Tennessee that will be played at 6:30 a.m. Pacific time, a good indication of what the league thinks about Chargers fans.

28. New York Jets

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-2.2 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 15-17 (vs. Texans on short rest, vs. Packers, at Patriots)

The Jets drew the unfortunate task of facing the Patriots after New England's bye week, but the league was nice enough to give the Jets their bye that same week. They also get a three-game homestand in Weeks 5-7, balanced by the fact that they'll play back-to-back road games three different times.

29. Indianapolis Colts

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-2.4 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 2-5 (at Redskins, at Eagles, vs. Texans, at Patriots on short rest)

Indianapolis is the only team this year that has to play three different opponents coming off bye weeks, though the Colts themselves will also be coming off their bye when they play Jacksonville at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 10. The other two games: at Oakland in Week 8 and at Miami in Week 12. Like the Jets, Indianapolis gets a three-game homestand (Weeks 10-12) along with back-to-back road games three different times. Five of their six division games come in the second half of the year, after their Week 9 bye.

30. Miami Dolphins

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-2.4 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 14-16 (vs. Patriots, at Vikings, vs. Jaguars)

In back-to-back games, Miami will have to play two NFC North opponents coming off their bye weeks: Chicago in Week 6 and Detroit in Week 7. At least both games are at home. Fifteen of Miami's 16 games are scheduled for the 1 p.m. Eastern time slot, with a Week 8 Thursday night game at Houston as the only exception.

31. Houston Texans

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-2.7 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-4 (at Patriots, at Titans, vs. Giants, at Colts)

Houston starts with its toughest game, a road trip to Foxborough, and it plays all three road games against division rivals in the first seven weeks of the season. But the Texans are set up to finish strong with four of their final six games at home, including all three home games against division rivals.

32. New England Patriots

Average projected DVOA of 2018 opponents: minus-4.1 percentHardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-15 (vs. Vikings, at Dolphins, at Steelers)

Patriots haters are probably asking themselves, "This again?" New England ranked 32nd in schedule strength in 2016, then 28th last year. Now we have the Patriots projected with the easiest schedule yet again. It helps to have six games against the rest of the AFC East, four of which come after New England's Week 11 bye. New England also gets to play the two tougher NFC North teams, Green Bay and Minnesota, at home.