[phil_abuster]

does anyone have actual stats, preferably from yr-to-yr,
on the percentage of times
the PUBLIC (of 67% or more on a side or total)
covers nfl bet spread ??
many of us have the opinion that the public is usually wrong
or at best 50/50,
but im looking for the actual stats (verifiable) which prove it
one way or another

the stats anyone??

[Shark]

you will have a hard time with this because the source you decide to use will not cover every sportsbook, betting community, etc. You could decide on one source and track from there sure.

[phil_abuster]

you will have a hard time with this because the source you decide to use will not cover every sportsbook, betting community, etc. You could decide on one source and track from there sure.

ok, which sources r there? where r those yr-to-yr stats readily available, please?

[phil_abuster]

so nobody knows of a site that keeps those
PUBLIC betting/consensus stats archived yr after yr for us ??

[phil_abuster]

if anybody knows of a site that keeps those
PUBLIC betting/consensus stats archived yr after yr for us please let me know
and i will share any angles i may find

please note that only ONE yr of stats is no good because the sample size is waaay too small, so i need multiple yrs - either sides, totals or both

[Jakenv21]

Sportsbookspy.com It will be a lot of leg work though. I'm not sure if there is a site out there that will give you what you are looking for without doing the work.

[eddycash]

one more ingredient you need with your calculations is the volume of bets in dollars for each side, since 67% or more is meaningless if one game has 10 times the money wagered compared to another game.

[Shark]

covers dot com consensus section has every game week over week year to year.

[phil_abuster]

one more ingredient you need with your calculations is the volume of bets in dollars for each side, since 67% or more is meaningless if one game has 10 times the money wagered compared to another game.

mmm, dunno. maybe worth a look someday but what i am interested in
is the results in various sports of "large public consensus" - even the smaller $$ cappers.
example, if 19 $20/bet cappers took Team A ($380 wager total) and only 1 guy took Team B but for $3800 then
the money is overwhelmingly on Team B......but 95% consensus of opinion/bets r on Team A! seems to me the most relevant stat is the latter, since what i am looking for is a "fade" opportunity w/solid expectation for us to win!
following the money USUALLY means betting on a newly inflated line, which is likely to lose over time.
fading the public consensus may or may not have value.
it would be nice to actually put solid stats (years) behind this concept
i will try to find that consensus section.

[mtofell]

I don't think what you're after exists since there really isn't hard data anywhere. The "public" is a subjective thing. There's not just a hard line you can draw between public and pro bettors. And sometimes they are on the same side of a given bet. Or, partially on the same side. Just too many variables.

Also, keep in mind that sports betting is a very fluid thing that changes drastically from year to year so stats (even if you could find them) well may lead you down the road to being broke. For example, sports books this year are getting killed since a lot of NFL favorites are covering (and the public LOVES betting favorites). I think I heard that the worst few teams (SF, CLE, etc) are something like 20% against the spread. So, the public looks like geniuses.... this year anyway. Last year? Next year? Likely to be a totally different story.

[phil_abuster]

I don't think what you're after exists since there really isn't hard data anywhere. The "public" is a subjective thing. There's not just a hard line you can draw between public and pro bettors. And sometimes they are on the same side of a given bet. Or, partially on the same side. Just too many variables.

Also, keep in mind that sports betting is a very fluid thing that changes drastically from year to year so stats (even if you could find them) well may lead you down the road to being broke. For example, sports books this year are getting killed since a lot of NFL favorites are covering (and the public LOVES betting favorites). I think I heard that the worst few teams (SF, CLE, etc) are something like 20% against the spread. So, the public looks like geniuses.... this year anyway. Last year? Next year? Likely to be a totally different story.

good points.
however the yr-over-yr stats will show this clearly.
it could b, possibly, that any given yr is a "one off" bucking the otherwise consistent yr-after-yr data
maybe. dont know until i get the stats

[phil_abuster]

covers dot com consensus section has every game week over week year to year.

i went there, finding only listings for each sport/game for this yr and also last yr
any attempt to toggle the calendar or url back further failed