So this is the point of the season where I feel I have seen enough to make some obvious plays... this can also be dangerous!! But I really like these

DEN -3.5 (at SDG) This is my "don't overthink this one" play. Arguably the best defense laying a low number to a team that is obviously struggling (again)

CAR/NO over 53 I can easily see a score of 20-17 by halftime. Very few punts in this game

CHI -2.5 (JAX) Chicago is still underrated, Hoyer is an upgrade and so is Jordan Howard

PHI -2.5 (at WAS) I'm still surprised PHI does not get more respect line should be -6

ATL +6.5 (at SEA) ATL is still underrated, one of the top-5 teams in the NFL