1. 09-29-16 08:37 PM #1
    Notorious_Donk
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    Donk's ELO Point Spread System

    Last year I closely followed point spreads generated by FiveThirtyEight and decided to continue this year. For those of you who don't know, FiveThirtyEight is a website that does countless numbers of projections including NFL. They have an Elo point spread system where they generate a point spread for every NFL game based on team skill level, previous games, and locations of each game.

    Since I like to crunch numbers when I get bored, I decided to compare the Elo point spreads with the closing odds from Vegas. As a result, I created 3 types of wagers based on the system. I was not planning on posting the results of this system anytime soon, however, after 3 weeks of NFL I actually have some interesting results. Here are the three types of wagers...

    FOX: name derived from FiveThirtyEight's logo; this wager is when Elo has the same projected winner as Vegas, but Elo has a larger spread
    PIG: first three-letter animal I could think of; this wager is when Elo has the same projected winner as Vegas, but has a smaller spread than Vegas.
    DOG: named because this wager is technically the underdog; this wager is when Elo and Vegas have different projected winners based on the spread.

    If this is confusing right now, I promise there will be much more clarity once the results are posted. Again, this system was only created because I got bored one night and simply started crunching numbers. I have created a few "systems" in the past, including a MLB first inning system being very successful. However, I have also had some systems completely flop.

    As of now, this system is being entirely used for tracking but feel free to tail if you would like. Depending on how the system progresses throughout the season, I may lay down real wagers. Questions, comments, and concerns are more than welcome. Without further ado...
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  2. 09-29-16 08:47 PM #2
    Notorious_Donk
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    WEEK 1

    ELO VEGAS PLAY FOX/PIG/DOG W/L
    DEN -2.5 CAR -3 DEN DOG W
    BAL -1 BAL -3 BUF PIG L
    HOU -5 HOU -5.5 - - -
    NYJ -0.5 CIN -1 NYJ DOG PUSH
    PHI -6.5 PHI -3.5 PHI FOX W
    GB -5 GB -3.5 GB FOX W
    MIN -6 MIN -2.5 MIN FOX W
    NO -3 NO -3 - - -
    KC -10 KC -6.5 KC FOX L
    ATL -5.5 ATL -2.5 ATL FOX L
    SEA -10.5 SEA -10.5 - - -
    IND -2 IND -2.5 - - -
    DAL -1.5 NYG -1 DAL DOG PUSH
    ARI -3 ARI -9 NE PIG W
    PIT -1 PIT -2.5 WSH PIG L
    SF -1 LA -2.5 SF DOG W



























    FOX: 3-2 - 60%
    PIG: 1-2 - 33.3%
    DOG: 2-0 - 100%

    2 pushes
    4 no plays
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  3. 09-29-16 09:03 PM #3
    Notorious_Donk
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    WEEK 2
    FOX: 5-3
    PIG: 1-2
    DOG: 2-0

    YTD
    FOX: 8-5 - 61.5%
    PIG: 2-4 - 33.3%
    DOG: 4-0 - 100%

    ELO VEGAS PLAY FOX/PIG/DOG W/L
    BUF -2 pk BUF FOX L
    BAL -2 BAL -4.5 CLE PIG L
    PIT -4 PIT -3 PIT FOX W
    WSH -4 WSH -3.5 - - -
    KC -1.5 pk KC FOX L
    NE -10 NE -6 NE FOX W
    NYG -3.5 NYG -4 - - -
    CAR -9 CAR -12.5 SF PIG L
    DET -10 DET -6 DET FOX L
    SEA -5 SEA -5.5 - - -
    ARI -9 ARI -7 ARI FOX W
    OAK -3 OAK -4 ATL PIG W
    DEN -9.5 DEN -6 DEN FOX W
    SD -4.5 SD -3 SD FOX W
    MIN -2 GB -2 MIN DOG W
    PHI -0.5 CHI -3 PHI DOG W
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  4. 09-29-16 09:08 PM #4
    Notorious_Donk
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    Week 3

    week 3
    fox: 3-0
    pig: 6-3
    dog: 1-0

    ytd
    fox: 11-5 - 68.75%
    pig: 8-7 - 53.3%
    dog: 5-0 - 100%

    elo vegas play fox/pig/dog w/l
    ne -6 ne -1 ne fox w
    ari -3 ari -5.5 buf pig w
    bal -3.5 bal -2 bal fox push
    mia -5 mia -10 cle pig w
    den -0.5 cin -3.5 den dog w
    gb -5.5 gb -6.5 det pig l
    car -4.5 car -6.5 min pig w
    oak -1 oak -1.5 - - -
    nyg -4 nyg -3.5 - - -
    tb -0.5 tb -3.5 la pig w
    sea -8.5 sea -10.5 sf pig l
    kc -5 kc -3 kc fox w
    pit -1.5 pit -4 phi pig w
    ind -2.5 ind -1.5 ind fox w
    dal -5 dal -6.5 chi pig l
    no -1 no -3 atl pig w
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  5. 09-29-16 09:14 PM #5
    Notorious_Donk
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    The dashes in the table represent a 'no play', because the Elo and Vegas spreads are too close to determine a clear projection. Here are the YTD results after 3 weeks of NFL...

    FOX: 11-5 - 68.75%
    PIG: 8-7 - 53.33%
    DOG: 5-0 - 100% (!!)

    After an eye test and before I actually calculated the numbers, I initially thought the FOX plays would have the best success but the DOG plays have been on fire. I'm looking forward to Sunday.
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  6. 09-29-16 09:22 PM #6
    Notorious_Donk
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    Thursday night football was a NO PLAY tonight. Elo and Vegas spreads were too close.

    Elo: CIN -7
    Vegas: CIN -7.5
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  7. 09-30-16 11:49 AM #7
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 4: Status Update

    Looking ahead to Week 4, I compared the point spreads to my local and here are the plays as we stand right now. THESE ARE NOT OFFICIAL PLAYS.

    FOX: IND -2.5, NE -6.5, BAL -3, HOU -4.5, DEN -3, MIN -5
    PIG: ATL +3, CLE +8, NYJ +2.5, STL +7.5, KC +4.5
    DOG: SF +1.5
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  8. 10-03-16 09:47 AM #8
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 4 Update

    FOX: 3-3
    PIG: 3-1
    DOG: 0-1
    ---------------
    TOTAL = 6-5


    ***Minnesota will be a FOX play tonight as long as they don't become over 8 pt favorites.
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  9. 10-04-16 12:47 PM #9
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 4 Results

    FOX = 4-3
    PIG = 3-1
    DOG = 0-1
    ----------------
    TOTAL = 7-5 58.3%

    YTD
    FOX = 15-8 65.2%
    PIG = 11-8 57.9%
    DOG = 5-1 83.3%

    ELO VEGAS PLAY FOX/PIG/DOG W/L
    IND -4.5 IND -1 IND FOX L
    NE -8 NE -3.5 NE FOX L
    CAR -1 CAR -3 ATL PIG W
    WSH -7 WSH -7.5 - - -
    DET -2 DET -3.5 CHI PIG W
    BAL -5 BAL -3.5 BAL FOX L
    SEA -1.5 pk SEA FOX W
    HOU -10.5 HOU -4 HOU FOX W
    DEN -8 DEN -3.5 DEN FOX W
    SF -1.5 DAL -1.5 SF DOG L
    ARI -6 ARI -9.5 LA PIG W
    SD -3.5 SD -4 - - -
    PIT -1.5 PIT -3.5 KC PIG L
    MIN -9 MIN -4 MIN FOX W
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  10. 10-04-16 12:49 PM #10
    Notorious_Donk
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    year to date total = 31-17 64.6%
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  11. 10-04-16 05:11 PM #11
    Eric22174
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    Thanks. Interested to see what you got for this week.
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  12. 10-04-16 05:45 PM #12
    jaydiz21
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    same here please keep them coming this is very interesting. thanks
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  13. 10-06-16 09:51 AM #13
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 5: Thursday Night Football

    ELO spread: ARI -2.5
    Vegas spread: ARI -3.5

    Currently, the TNF play is San Francisco as long as they stay 3.5+ pt underdogs. If the line drops below 3.5 there will be no play. We will see how the line moves as we get closer to kickoff.
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  14. 10-06-16 11:16 AM #14
    Eric22174
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    What site do you use for the line?
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  15. 10-06-16 06:45 PM #15
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric22174 View Post
    What site do you use for the line?
    I use my local guy, but as a secondary i've been using vegasinsider . com
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  16. 10-06-16 06:46 PM #16
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 5: Thursday Night Football Play

    PIG: San Francisco +3.5
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  17. 10-07-16 03:24 PM #17
    ericool007
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    san fran is terrible how they managed to get blown away at home by a drew stanton.
    anyways keep em coming.
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  18. 10-09-16 12:31 PM #18
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericool007 View Post
    san fran is terrible how they managed to get blown away at home by a drew stanton.
    anyways keep em coming.
    Yeah I wasn't very confident in that pick but again this is for tracking purposes only, tail at your own risk
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  19. 10-09-16 12:46 PM #19
    Notorious_Donk
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    Nfl week 5

    Picks are a little late, it was a long night. Whiskey beer and moonshine will make you feel some type of way.

    Here are the plays for Sunday

    FOX:
    MIN -6
    MIA -2.5
    DEN -4
    GB -7

    PIG:
    SF +4
    CLE +10
    NYJ +9.5
    DET +3.5
    CIN +2.5

    DOG:
    LA +2.5
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  20. 10-09-16 12:49 PM #20
    Notorious_Donk
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    (My personal play is GB -6.5. I'll be in attendance at Lambeau tonight, expect Green Bay to make a statement tonight. Giants coming off a very physical game against Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers is coming off a bye week. Great value at 6.5 IMO. Cheers)

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  21. 10-10-16 05:57 PM #21
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Notorious_Donk View Post
    Picks are a little late, it was a long night. Whiskey beer and moonshine will make you feel some type of way.

    Here are the plays for Sunday

    FOX:
    MIN -6
    MIA -2.5
    DEN -4
    GB -7

    PIG:
    SF +4
    CLE +10
    NYJ +9.5
    DET +3.5
    CIN +2.5

    DOG:
    LA +2.5
    It was a very rough Sunday for the system, but thats the way she goes. Gotta ride the waves. Here is the MNF play...

    MNF
    Panthers -6 (FOX)
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  22. 10-12-16 11:52 AM #22
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL WEEK 5 RESULTS

    MNF: Panthers -6 (FOX) LOSS

    FOX: 1-3
    PIG: 1-4
    DOG: 0-1
    ---------------
    TOTAL: 2-8 20%


    YTD RESULTS

    FOX: 16-11
    PIG: 12-12
    DOG: 5-2
    ---------------
    YTD TOTAL: 33-25 56.9%
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  23. 10-12-16 11:59 AM #23
    Notorious_Donk
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    MNF displayed a huge flaw in the system and explained why I hated the pick. The elo system does not take injuries into account because it only looks at past games and how they played against those specific opponents. So the elo spread of 6 favoring Carolina (theoretically) had no idea that Scam Newton was not playing.

    Going forward, I will not take those plays into account. If a significant player (such as Scam or Gronk) is out AND played the previous week, that play will not count towards the system. Remember, the elo point spreads are a 'benchmark' so i'm simply trying to figure out a trend that is profitable and injuries can definitely impact that trend.

    If yall have any suggestions or questions just let me know.
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  24. 10-12-16 12:11 PM #24
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL WEEK 6 ELO SPREADS

    Broncos -6.5
    Giants -1.5
    Panthers -2.5
    Patriots -5.5
    Titans -4
    Bears -3.5
    Lions -2.5
    Redskins pk
    Steelers -7.5
    Bills -10
    Chiefs -2
    Seahawks -5.5
    Packers -5.5
    Texans -5
    Cardinals -6
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  25. 10-12-16 03:49 PM #25
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Notorious_Donk View Post
    MNF displayed a huge flaw in the system and explained why I hated the pick. The elo system does not take injuries into account because it only looks at past games and how they played against those specific opponents. So the elo spread of 6 favoring Carolina (theoretically) had no idea that Scam Newton was not playing.

    Going forward, I will not take those plays into account. If a significant player (such as Scam or Gronk) is out AND played the previous week, that play will not count towards the system. Remember, the elo point spreads are a 'benchmark' so i'm simply trying to figure out a trend that is profitable and injuries can definitely impact that trend.

    If yall have any suggestions or questions just let me know.
    Also, Cleveland should not have been a play this past weekend because the system never accounted for Tim Brady being back under center. The system was rating New England based on how they have been with Garappolo and Brisset. Yes they did pretty good with those two QBs, but its a fair argument to say they would have performed better with Brady.

    So with this change, Fox plays YTD should be 16-10 and Pig plays YTD should be 12-11.
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  26. 10-13-16 03:13 PM #26
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 6: TNF Play

    Broncos -3 (FOX)
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  27. 10-14-16 10:48 AM #27
    Notorious_Donk
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    Broncos -3 (FOX) LOSS
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  28. 10-14-16 11:01 AM #28
    ericool007
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    not a good past week lol
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  29. 10-14-16 01:53 PM #29
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericool007 View Post
    not a good past week lol
    Not good at all. I sense a turn around happening real quick tho
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  30. 10-15-16 12:07 PM #30
    Eric22174
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    When do you post the picks?
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  31. 10-17-16 03:24 PM #31
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 6 Update

    MNF Pending Play: Jets +7 (only 7 and higher, otherwise no play)

    Broncos -3 (FOX) LOSS
    Baltimore +3.5 (PIG) LOSS
    Bengals +7.5 (PIG) LOSS
    Browns +7.5 (PIG) LOSS
    Bears -2.5 (FOX) LOSS
    Redskins +3 (DOG) WIN
    Bills -7.5 (FOX) WIN
    Falcons +7 (PIG) WIN
    Texans -3 (FOX) PUSH

    FOX: 1-2-1
    PIG: 1-3
    DOG: 1-0
    ---------------
    TOTAL: 3-5-1 (one pending play)
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  32. 10-17-16 03:25 PM #32
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric22174 View Post
    When do you post the picks?
    I post the picks whenever I get a chance. Usually I write them down a hour or two before the game but dont always have the time to post them on here
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  33. 10-18-16 10:54 AM #33
    Notorious_Donk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Notorious_Donk View Post
    NFL Week 6 Update

    MNF Pending Play: Jets +7 (only 7 and higher, otherwise no play)

    Broncos -3 (FOX) LOSS
    Baltimore +3.5 (PIG) LOSS
    Bengals +7.5 (PIG) LOSS
    Browns +7.5 (PIG) LOSS
    Bears -2.5 (FOX) LOSS
    Redskins +3 (DOG) WIN
    Bills -7.5 (FOX) WIN
    Falcons +7 (PIG) WIN
    Texans -3 (FOX) PUSH

    FOX: 1-2-1
    PIG: 1-3
    DOG: 1-0
    ---------------
    TOTAL: 3-5-1 (one pending play)
    NFL Week 6 Results

    MNF: Jets +7 (PIG) LOSS

    Jets are garbage, plain and simple. Waste of a good defense. Once again I didn't agree with the system pick but i'm not laying any wood on these plays, just for tracking purposes only. After being very profitable through the first 4 weeks, the system has gotten absolutely shelled the previous 2 weeks. Here are the YTD numbers below

    FOX: 17-13
    PIG: 13-16
    DOG: 6-2
    ---------------
    TOTAL: 36-31
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  34. 10-19-16 12:14 PM #34
    Notorious_Donk
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    NFL Week 7 Elo Spreads

    Packers -10
    Rams -0.5
    Jets -2.5
    Bills -4
    Bengals -10.5
    Colts -0.5
    Vikings -2
    Chiefs -9.5
    Raiders -0.5
    Lions -1.5
    Falcons -7
    49ers -1.5
    Steelers -1
    Cardinals -0.5
    Broncos -6.5
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  35. 10-19-16 03:42 PM #35
    CamNewtonOutfit
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    Thanks for the info, I didnt realize the ELO spread was different than the vegas spread. Good stuff.
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