Jets @ colts -7.5 o/u 40.5

the afc championship will be the jets versus the colts at lucas oil stadium. Both teams are coming off impressive wins in their afc divisional playoff games. The jets come into the game as an afc wildcard team with playoff wins against the bengals and chargers. The colts are the #1 seed in the afc and easily disposed of their only playoff opponent, the baltimore ravens.

The jets beat the #2 seed chargers 14-17 in a game that was just as much about chargers mistakes as it was about the jets winning the game. Not to take anything away from the jets but the chargers kept making big mistakes at crucial moments in the game. The chargers kicker nate kaeding missed three field goals, two of which were under 41 yards. Rivers passed for 298 yards but threw 2 interceptions at critical points in the game. One gave the jets the ball at the san diego 16 yard line which led to a touchdown and the other was an incredible interception by reevis late in the game while the chargers were needing a score. If you take away the 53 yard touchdown run by the jets offense they were less than impressive. The jets offense punted 8 times in the game and scored one of their two touchdowns after san diego turned it over inside their own 20. Sanchez only passed for 100 yards with one interception and the jets rushed for 169 yards, most of which came on the 53 yard touchdown run.

The colts faced off against baltimore and answered many of the questions about whether the long break would effect their play. Manning and the offense played controlled football, scoring 20 points against a tough ravens defense. The 20 points proved to be more than enough after their defense held the ravens to just 3 points and didn't allow them to score a single touchdown. Flacco was held to 189 yards passing by the colts secondary and even more impressive was the fact that the ravens 4th ranked rushing attack was held under 100 yards. They also won the turnover battle with 4 takeaways to cap off the win. Peyton manning was his usual self and looked more than prepared to manage the game after the long break.

The jets beat the colts at home in week 16 but don't let that fool you. Peyton manning threw for 192 yards in just over one half of action. The colts controlled the action the entire time the starters were in the game even though the jets were playing to keep their playoff hopes alive. The jets offense only scored 3 points against the starters and punted 3 times with two of those being three and outs. To start the second half the jets returned a kickoff for a touchdown and then manning went right back down the field to score easily. Thats when the starters for indianapolis went back to the sideline for the remainder of the game. The jets offense only managed to score one offensive touchdown against the second string defense. Curtis painter and the other backups for indianapolis only managed to hold on to the ball for less than 4 minutes the rest of the game, so the jets offense had plenty of opportunities to score and couldnt punch it in. The final score was not reflective of how the game went. All but 3 of the jets 29 points came against the colt's 2nd string or were scored by the defense and special teams.

The colts are coming off a game in which they dominated a team that is very similar to the jets. The jets want to play great defense and control the clock with their running game much like the colts last opponent. The colts will also look to avenge the loss to the jets when the starters were pulled in week 16. Manning didn't seem too thrilled to be on the sideline while the jets took advantage of the colts backups. This should just be more incentive for the colts to go out and show everyone that they are the better team. Manning also seems to be more focused than ever to get back to the super bowl. The colts will be playing in front of their home crowd, and the colts are 6-1-1 ats in their last 8 games as a favorite with the one loss being the before mentioned jets game in week 16. Look for the jets offense to struggle, especially if the colts can put up points early. The jets offense is very one dimensional and is in big trouble if the colts can repeat the performance they had against the ravens running attack. The jets defense is very aggressive and blitzes more than any other team in the nfl and this will play right into manning's hands. Manning is possibly the best ever at predicting the blitz and getting the ball out in a hurry to the open receiver. The colts will have to be aware of where the jets shut down corner darrelle reevis is on the field, but manning likes to spread the ball around to different receivers and checking down to the open man when making his reads. The colts are 3-0 ats this year when facing a top ten defense, not including the game against the jets. The jets have been able to get this far in the playoffs in spite of their weaknesses on offense. Sanchez hasnt had to make too many big throws down the field in this years playoffs, but he will this weekend and i don't trust him to consistently deliver for a entire game. Manning wont let his team fall into the trap of being overconfident and make the same mistakes the chargers did. Rivers and the chargers let a chance for a superbowl slip through their fingers and manning will be fully aware of whats at stake. I like manning and the colts to play well at home and cover the spread even though the jets defense has been the best in the league. The jets offense just doesnt have the fire power needed to win this game on the road.


My picks: Colts -7.5

record in div playoffs vs spread and o/u: 6-2
(lost first 2 picks and won all six the rest of the way)