Time and time again we see "key" injuries pop up on the report and bettors rush to the window to fade the affected team, hand over fist, only to watch their ticket go up in smoke as if the injuries never happened.
Take last night, for example... The Vikings defense was alleged to be in dire straits after Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr, and Harrison Smith were all sidelined with injuries.
"Doomsday for the Vikes" they said.
"Carson Palmer will throw for 800 yards" they said.
The line skyrockets to double digits.
And the result? Cards win a squeaker and leave butthurt backers shaking their heads in disbelief, right on cue.
Another example from two Monday nights ago... The poor, lowly, embattled, helpless, hopeless, injury riddled Ravens were supposed to crumble beneath the weight of their own inferiority, and concede the game to the Cleveland Browns.
"How could they win?" they asked.
"They are decimated" the masses declared.
"No Flacco, no Forsett, no Suggs, no Steve Smith... no way" the peanut gallery asserted.
The line, again, skyrockets to Brownies -6 before the game, and, of course, the Ravens win a Monday Night barnburner.
I'm sure there are going to be counterexamples. That's inevitable. But by and large, the injury angle is pure fool's gold. I find this often to be true in the NBA as well.