Originally Posted by
KVB
...There has been much discussion on SBR about consensus numbers and bet totals often listed on the internet. Bettors often like to see who the “public” is on and think this information can help them. Sometimes it can.
I’ve posted a few times about how these numbers don’t have to be accurate and the sources often can be questioned. I’ve mentioned that nobody has any responsibility towards the accuracy of those numbers.
Let me clarify something. Many websites put up “consensus numbers” which is simply a tally of posts, contests, etc. of where the traffic on that website, or group of websites, would be betting, if they were placing money.
I shouldn’t have to explain too much about the difference between what one would play, if one were betting, and what one would actually play if money was at stake. Often times there is a difference between picking a team for fun or contest, and actually putting your money where your typing fingers are.
This difference makes many of these consensus numbers worthless. A more valuable piece of information would be what bettors are actually buying. SportsInsights offers a service that gives you the actual percentage of bets placed, not the dollar amount, for each game. When it says 65% of the bets are on Seattle, it means that 65% of the tickets at the participating books are on Seattle. I think ESPN may use them.
One way bettors use this information is when comparing it to line movements. In general, the betting marketplace comprises a large betting public betting a small percentage of the money. They write a lot of tickets, but the amounts are small when compared to the small percentage of bettors and syndicates plays that make up most of the actual money wagered.
So when, say, 75% of the tickets written are on the home team, but that line moves towards the road team, we have what they call Reverse Line Movement. Usually, but not always, this indicates larger money plays, which moved the line, are being made by bettors from that small percentage group.
The books understand this and often use line movements to not only protect themselves from risk, but also to confuse bettors trying to navigate the marketplace. Books work with oddsmakers to even use movement to draw money, or make it flow, a specific direction...