Before we get the season started, let's get this out there: this is a forum, a place to discuss lines. Save the bickering, name-calling, etc. for somewhere else. If someone has a different line than what you're seeing (we're talking 0.5 to 1 point here, not something crazy like 3 or 4 points), cool it - they might be on a different book, or their local might offer something other than what you've seen. If you think someone is foolish for taking a particular side, so what? No game is obvious. Let's be civil and have real conversations about why the lines are the way they are & what angles/trends you're looking at & and what your gut says. And let's win money. That's why we're all here, right? Right.
For the most part, I try to stick to 4 or 5 games per week (and not necessarily always the "marquee" games). If there are some additional tasty games out there, I'll tack on a few more. Of course, I enjoy gambling, so sometimes the wager tally might approach 10 games. I encourage anyone and everyone to chime in with their thoughts. I TRY to flat-bet (1 unit = 100), but the gambler in me doesn't always agree. Anyway, on to week 1...
1 unit on Tennessee +3
I like Mariota's decision-making a tad better than ole Jameis'. I need to see that Doug Martin is actually "back" to believe it. Combine a few Winston turnovers with Mike Evans not fully healthy, and this is 24-21 Titans for me.
1 unit on Jacksonville +3
Firstly, let me say that I'm really awful at picking Panthers games. I don't know what it is, but I just hardly ever seem to get them right. Doesn't mean I won't stop trying though...
No Benjamin is a big deal. The Cats are on the road. Jacksonville has an explosive rookie in Yeldon, and Bortles has progressed from what I've read/heard. I'll take the FG here. Carolina wins 17-16
2 units on Miami -3.5
Fins were really solid on the road last year, and they've upgraded the defense with the addition of Suh. Grimes will lock down either Jackson or Garcon, and I simply don't trust a Redskins team that is in absolute disarray. Miami 31-17
2 units on Minnesota -2.5 It's easier to work in an All-Pro RB (Peterson) than it is two new WRs (Boldin and Smith). In addition, the Niners start a second-year RB in Hyde behind an OL in shambles. The Vikings should be solid this year, and I trust them to compete harder than SF. Minny wins 27-16
So, a few road favorites, which I don't always love, but I'm fine with them this week considering their opponents' current state of affairs & respective personnel.
Other leans (sides):
KC @ HOU (-1) - both defense are stout...lean Houston based on home field, and I think Hoyer is a serviceable QB - I also usually feel more comfortable backing a team that doesn't start Alex Smith. No Foster is not a big deal in a low-scoring affair. Watt and Wilfork up front is nasty. 20-17 Texans
NO @ ARI (-2.5) - Palmer is back, but does that really mean a whole lot? The Cardinals are banged up everywhere, and Brees in a dome, no matter who he's throwing to, is always dangerous. Saints win this - grabbing the 2.5 is the play if you don't go moneyline. 26-24 Saints
Leans (totals):
CLE/NYJ Under 39.5
DET/SD Over 45.5