Originally Posted by
PutTogether
I recently completed a model that can chew through stats through week 7 of the season. I will be running match ups through it to determine my own line differential. I will post the plays here, as well as my predicted differential in points scored. Initial bench mark for me to make something a 'play' will be that an available betting line differs from what I think the line should be by 2.5 points or more.
I will also periodically post adjustments to the model, and why I decided to weight certain things differently as the model progresses. Plays posted will all be flat bet units of 1, unless a line looks seriously off. A UNIT will be $100, because I hate keeping track of 'units.' We will RISK $100 + any applicable juice in order to WIN $100, though occasionally we will risk $100 even on a money line bet on a dog. Plays will be posted in the following format:
GAME: Home Team / Road Team
Predited Point Differential (or PPD): Team - predicted points
Easily available betting line: X
Selection: Team @+ or - Xpts (juice) (Risk $XXX to win $100)
I will sometimes, but not always post a small write up or explanation of why I'm confident.
Results so far: Win/Loss/Tie for a total gain or loss of $XXXX
If it looks confusing, see the post below for my first ACTUAL pick. I WILL NEVER EDIT THE POSTS THAT CONTAIN PICKS!