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Week 14 picks and thoughts
After a stellar week 13, not much appeals this week. Here are the five, all smallish bets:
Buffalo @ Kansas City
Both teams "are what they are" according to my figures, so the Chiefs are a true 3-9 team and have been outscored by 130 points. The Bills are a 4-8 team but outscored by only 62. While these are two of the worst offenses in the league, frankly the Chiefs are rubbish all round. Buffalo at least bring a strength to the table in defensive passer rating (although I'm cautious with this stat, based on the dearth of quality QBs they've faced) and can exert some pressure on the passer. Irritatingly, the line and price have moved against me, but I can't resist the opportunity to hopefully make some more money from KC's ineptitude.
Mystic Limey forsees: BUF 23 - 16 KC
5 units on BILLS ML @ 1.83
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
My arcane equations tell me that these teams are neither under nor over-rated. They are who we think they are, namely an 8-4 team fighting for the playoffs and a 5-7 team fighting to look even respectable. The Packers do absolutely everything better than the Bears, with the exception of preventing sacks and the kicking game. However, they've taken recent strides in keeping Rodgers perpendicular, and if you want to back the Bears in the hope that they score on kick returns then you're a more optimistic man than I.
Mystic Limey forsees: GB 27 - 13 CHI
5 units on PACKERS -4
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
The Falcons look like cannon-fodder here. It feels like grasping at straws to suggest that the Saints can't keep scoring at the rate they have done thus far, or to wonder if they can keep up the intense effort they've had to put out for a number of weeks now in chasing the (pointless) perfect record. Atlanta aren't very good - as I suggested many weeks ago when they were sitting at 4-1. Given the Falcons' array of weaknesses, I can't resist getting on the Saints bandwagon for the first time, despite their recent tendency to start up slower than a 1950s television set.
Mystic Limey forsees: NO 37 - 17 ATL
3 units on SAINTS -10
WASHINGTON @ OAKLAND
These teams match up pretty closely, but Oakland don't have to travel three thousand miles for the game just before two pride-salvaging divisional games. I have to take the Raiders, improved behind the new QB, as the Skins head west off a heart-breaking and intense defeat.
Mystic Limey forsees: WAS 17 - 24 OAK
5 units on RAIDERS +1
SAN DIEGO @ DALLAS
This game is important to both teams, but you'd have to edge motivation to the Cowboys, as San Diego have the tie-breaker nicely sewn up in the West and a safer spot in the less competitive AFC wildcard hunt.
San Diego have the worst running offense in the league and don't stop the run especially well which plays into the Cowboys' hands - hands that carry the ball for five yards per carry. On the other side of the ball, Dallas aren't great in pass coverage but they do get pressure (as 27 sacks will testify). And while the Chargers fare a little better in defensive passer rating, bear in mind they've had the fortune to face JaMarcus Russell twice, the Chiefs' pitiful passing game twice, and the Cleveland Browns. That's five games against the three least effective passing teams in the entire NFL.
It's a slight worry that the Cowboys had an NFC East road battle last week while the Chargers coasted in Cleveland, but with San Diego hitting the road for a second consecutive week I take the home team here with their better-balanced team and slightly greater need for the 'W'.
Mystic Limey forsees: SD 17 - 28 DAL
5 units on COWBOYS -3
Comments welcome.....
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with this one as far as your other picks I did not look at those games
Originally Posted by limey
