[suicidekings]

Broncos-Chargers

I think it's funny how the narrative in the DEN-SD game for many people is how there's no way Peyton can lose to the Chargers again AND there's no way they can lose in the Div round again at home to a big underdog. No pressure though...

The patchwork SD defense is going to have a tougher time against Peyton than Dalton, but at the same time, Manning has always had a tough time with the San Diego defense. In his last 10 games against SD, Manning is only 4-6 with a 23-18 TD/INT ratio (Most of those INTs were generated by pressure at the LOS, rather than in coverage). Even with the large turnover in personnel, the constant in this equation is John Pagano, who you can expect to have a very well constructed defensive gameplan for SD. I think the Chargers will get to Manning a couple of times in key situations here to stall Bronco drives, and consistently put pressure on him to hurry his throw, which will minimize the deep balls and force Denver to march down the field instead of taking big bites. The key here will be to clamp down on those short passes, and not allow many YAC, as not one of these Bronco receivers goes down easily. It will be all about making Manning earn points with time off the clock and avoiding the quick score. SD's defensive stats are not overly impressive over the course of the season, but in the last 6 weeks, they've shown a marked improvement, moving them from one of the worst defenses to a fairly average one.

On offense, Rivers is looking to confident right now largely because he has an OL that's actually been effective in pass protection this season (8th in adj. sack rate). Keenan Allen in particular has been making huge plays for him downfield and Danny Woodhead has arguably been the best free agent signing of the year, serving as a good pass protector and great checkdown option to keep drives moving. All the SD tailbacks are solid in protection, which is a problem for Denver. Coming into this game, they're going to be without both Von Miller and Derek Wolfe, leaving only Shaun Philips as a capable pass rusher that could have an impact. I don't think Denver will be effective in getting pressure on Rivers very often in this game.

I think San Diego can absolutely win this game, but I'll play the +10. Ultimately, for SD, this game is going to come down to shortening the game as much as possible in preventing big plays from Manning and forcing them into longer drives to score, and in extending their own drives through leaning heavily on their running game. SD & DEN are the two best teams in the league in offensive drive efficiency (76.2% & 78.1% in drive success rate), but have drastically different pace stats. I want to see the Broncos limited to 10 offensive drives in this game.

Key Points for an SD Win:
1) Time of Possession. Beating Peyton starts with forcing the clock to keep rolling on both sides of the ball. Make him earn points with long drives by avoiding big plays. On offense, SD needs to do the same, converting 3rd downs and not being afraid to be aggressive on 4th and short once over the 50 yard line.
2) Penalties. Both Peyton and Rivers are among the leaders in the league in drawing DPIs. No net advantage. However, Denver was among the leaders in committing defensive penalties (54) this season, compared to San Diego (33). The Denver secondary has been known to make huge mistakes downfield, and I think they make at least 1-2 in this game if Rivers is aggressive.
3) Ball control -> Run the ball. Both for offensive gains and clock management, I want to see 40+ carries in this game for the Chargers. Ball control has seen them lose only one game by 10 or more points this season (17-27 to OAK) and it took a -5 TO margin for that to happen.

I think the +10 is very solid. No matter how good Manning and his offense is, this is a team that's given up a lot of points this year, Among playoff teams, only GB allowed more scoring against them, and at least the Packers can blame their offense's inability to sustain drives without Rodgers on the field. Denver has no excuse. Peyton's career also includes a 9-11 postseason record and 8 first round losses despite being on a 12+ win team in 10 of 14 seasons. So if you're still thinking there's no way Denver loses this game, you should probably reconsider.

[suicidekings]

Colts-Patriots

Not a bad matchup for New England, overall. Indy can't stop the run very well, unless you count two games against Jacksonville. New England has quietly become one of the best rushing teams in the NFL this year with a stable of tailbacks that runs 4 deep, including a 250 pound battering ram in LeGarrette Blount, who's just made to take advantage of a defense like this. At receiver, this is the healthiest NE has been all season, and Brady is now feeling comfortable again with his options. That health in receivers has also improved the OL's performance in pass protection substantially as Brady no longer has to hold the ball longer than he would like. It's certainly not the typical 2 TE set offense that Belichek is known for, but it's very balanced and effective.

Unfortunately, on the other side of the ball, NE's defense has seen serious injuries that have hurt them a lot. The losses of Vince Wilfork, Jerrod Mayo, and Brandon Spikes are huge. Replacements have been somewhat effective, but many of the remaining starters have also missed time this season with injuries. Overall, the Patriots defense lacks depth up front. The good news is that Indy isn't a great rushing team, however if NE shifts their focus too heavily to pass defense, I could see Donald Brown gashing the Pats for a lot of yardage. After Brown, there's not much available so it's one depleted unit going up against another. I suspect Luck will need to make a few big plays with his legs in this game to extend drives.

The Patriots pass rush managed 4 sacks in each of their last three games, however that's not significant given that they were against MIA/BUF/BAL seeing as they gave up 58/48/48 sacks this season, respectively. On the other side, Luck was sacked only 4 times over the last 5 games, which included 2 games against KC and one against Cincinnati. I think Indy has a much better chance of getting to Brady than the Pats D does in getting to Andrew Luck.

With good balance on offense, I think the Pats can score a decent number of points in this game. Unfortunately for them, I doubt NE can stop Indy when they get the no-huddle offense going. I think this game could be a lot closer than anticipated and the real dagger for New England is that Andrew Luck doesn't lose close games. Since coming into the league Luck is 16-2 in one score games, including numerous game winning drives in the 4Q. Indy is a team that just doesn't go away. When they need big defensive plays, they have a ton of skilled pass rushers that can overwhelm any offensive line, anchored by Jerrell Freeman and Robert Mathis, who have combined for 25 sacks and 14 forced fumbles. They're not a team that sends pressure often, but situationally, they are as dangerous in key downs as any opponent you could face in the NFL. In a game that could potentially be quite close, these big plays on both offense/defense are what make the difference, and I don't think New England will be able to just pull away from the Colts here.

The one big negative situational angle I see in this game for the Colts is that they threw everything they had at KC last weekend. It was a big emotional win at home, and one of the biggest comebacks in NFL postseason history. For a team that has a lot of youth at so many positions, there's a real danger of coming out flat to start this game. Chuck Pagano is a great coach and Andrew Luck plays like a veteran more often than not, but it's really tough to say how focused the Colts will be early in this game. I kind of think the offense might put a bit too much pressure on itself and see a couple of stalled drives early. Belichek should make defending the short/intermediate passing game early his primary focus, taking Fleener out of the game with Talib and doubling Hilton frequently. Second priority would be in swarming to Donald Brown anytime he touches the ball while sending pressure when it's Richardson protecting in the backfield. This would put an immense amount of pressure on Luck to make plays downfield, especially if they're unable to run the ball on first down. The biggest remaining threat on the field would be allowing Da'Rick Rogers (or Lavon Brazill) to get behind the defense downfield, but I think this is a relatively good proposition for Belichek in exchange for smothering Indy's most reliable offensive options.

At some point, Luck will have to run the ball. Throughout the course of the season, Indy used a zone read from time to time, but always passed off to the running back. Last week against KC was the first time all year that Luck actually kept the ball in the ZR and it was a big play for them. I would not be surprised if he relies on it even more in this game. On the other side of the ball, Indy absolutely has to find a way to slow down the NE rushing game.

Much like Denver, the Patriots are a team that's built to do well in the regular season, but has stumbled frequently in the post season. I don't think I would be shocked to see NE get off to an early fast start and a close finish. I think I lean to playing the 1Q O9.5 and 1H O24.5 more than anything. Maybe NE 1H -4.

[Capper1124]

Very nice writeups. GL to you this weekend

[slacker00]

Great write up. I think you've said it all. GL this weekend!

[Tommy Karate]

>40 degrees suicidekings

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...t-in-the-cold/

can break down the game all you want, but that fact is huge.

[suicidekings]

>40 degrees suicidekings

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...t-in-the-cold/

can break down the game all you want, but that fact is huge.

The effects of cold weather on QBs that normally play & practice in domes or warm climates is more than just a Peyton thing. It can be applied to most QBs in that situation and produces similar results. Here's a Football Outsiders article about it.

In this case, it's irrelevant. I don't doubt that Peyton will be able to put up points, but if they can't stop SD from doing the same, there's no advantage. And he can't score when he's not holding the ball, which was pretty much the main point of what I wrote. San Diego doesn't get blown out. I'm fine with the Broncos winning the game, but I really doubt it will be by 10+.

[Tommy Karate]

The effects of cold weather on QBs that normally play & practice in domes or warm climates is more than just a Peyton thing. It can be applied to most QBs in that situation and produces similar results. Here's a Football Outsiders article about it.

In this case, it's irrelevant. I don't doubt that Peyton will be able to put up points, but if they can't stop SD from doing the same, there's no advantage. And he can't score when he's not holding the ball, which was pretty much the main point of what I wrote. San Diego doesn't get blown out. I'm fine with the Broncos winning the game, but I really doubt it will be by 10+.

maybe, but there are no other QB's in this years tournament that have this type of significant difference in cold or "warm" weather.

thats what happened last time they played - i really doubt SD eats up the clock again as i believe 1 drive lasted 10 minutes.

this is one of those games to me where the spread likely doesnt matter. this is what denver has done in their home wins this year:

w22, w16, w32, w16, w24, w10, w23
so if you think denver wins this game, they should cover....

i just think that performance by sd in den a few weeks ago is still fresh in the minds of SD backers (60% on sd now), and usually the opposite happens in the next meeting. one of the reasons i was hesitant on sea, but the weather in that game is too conducive to seattles game...

[suicidekings]

I didn't say I think Denver wins. Just that I likely will not be playing the SD ML. Just the spread.

And when I say long drives, I don't mean 10 minute drives. The average duration of an offensive drive is 5.7 plays in 2m35s. Denver runs 6.1 plays in 2m30s and SD is #1 in TOP, running 6.9 plays in 3m22s. As it stands, if they can stay on their average, they're likely limiting Denver to less drives than they're used to, and if SD can stay even in TOs and play mistake-free special teams, they can leverage the TOP advantage even more in terms of field position. Fundamentals over 60 minutes adding up to a huge difference.

[suicidekings]

Saints-Seahawks

This is a really tough spot for New Orleans. The Saints are a pass-happy team that doesn't run the ball particularly well. Their terrible overall rushing stats are actually somewhat inflated by the Dallas game which accounted for 16% of their season rushing yardage alone. Against some teams this doesn't matter as much, but Seattle is the #1 pass defense team in the league, by a huge margin. Generally, if you let them get you into 3rd and long, your drive is probably over. Try as I might, I just can't envision a way that the Saints win this game.

On top of this defensive challenge, the weather is going to be wet and cold, with rain coming down all day, and the loudest stadium in the NFL will be a very difficult environment to run an offense. The best option NO has for getting a win here is for them to run the ball. For all their intensity against the pass, Seattle's run defense is more average. The only teams that have beaten Seattle this year, or played them close, have been teams that were able to run the ball. The good news for the Saints is that their rushing production has improved over the course of the season and they have the tools in Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas, plus a solid offensive line, to have a big day on the ground. As tough a task as it is, the Saints gameplan is necessarily quite simple as well. Establish the run and Brees has to make extremely accurate throws while his stable of big receivers take advantage of the few opportunities the Seattle secondary offer them. There won't be many chances and the coverage will be tight.

For Seattle, this game is very favourable. To demonstrate just how much the Seahawks dominated the Saints last time, Phil Steele has a game grading system on his stat sheets, ranking the overall performances of each team in each game against the teams in every other game of the season. Seattle's beatdown of New Orleans earlier this year is ranked as the best performance by any team in 2013. Their destruction of SF in Week 2 ranked 6th, and overall Seattle owned five in the top 16 games of the year.

Common sense says that New Orleans will make some changes to their gameplan in this game, and I'm sure they will, but the bottom line is some teams just do not match up well with others, and pass-heavy teams have a particularly hard time against the Seahawks. They need to put up some offense in this game, but I think the biggest way they can hope to improve their situation is by being more methodical. Just like SD above, NO will benefit from shortening the game and need to capitalize on the chances they are given. At +8, the line might have some worth, although you're relying on a few things to go the Saints way early here. Weather will likely be a big factor in creating turnovers and dropped passes that could add an additional random element to the game.

Myself, I think the Under 45 is the way to go in this game, however having already dropped from 48, I've lost out on a lot of value. I will likely be playing the Under near gametime tomorrow, hoping for the market to rise a bit. Failing that, I may just wait and see what happens in live betting.

[Tommy Karate]

i usually also wait for the hopeful buy back with lots of movement one way, but with the heavy rain i figured that 45 would still beat the closer so went with it.

likely no pierre thomas is big in this game. i dont trust mark ingram at all as hes a bad pass protector and not a good receiver. NO would have a much better chance if they had a larger stable of backs to attack sea's weakness.

[JR007]

good luck with your plays SK, thanks for the writeups

[suicidekings]

1) Saints-Seahawks Under 45 (-119) x1

[suicidekings]

Panthers-Niners

I think it's pretty ridiculous for anyone to be extremely confident in a side in this game. These teams are actually very similar, with the only significant edge in the SF receiver quality. Two mobile QBs that it's dangerous to send pressure against because of their ability to escape. Both with the capacity to extend plays and hit deep receivers downfield. Two strong front 7s that are solid in their sideline to sideline pursuit (small edge to Carolina here) and in generating pressure with the front 4. Neither team blitzes a lot, but that makes Carolina's league leading 60 sacks even more significant. Both defensive backfields are solid tacklers but SF has more speed (small edge SF).

But there are differences. First, in wide receivers. There's no doubt SF has the edge with Boldin/Davis/Crabtree on the field. Steve Smith is now expected to play for Carolina, but he won't be 100% with his knee injury. After Smith, LaFell & Ginn are ok, but not great. Greg Olsen will absolutely be a factor today as he's Newton's most reliable option. For SF, Boldin is a monster that has made huge plays in critical games for the Niners this season. Crabtree is tough to cover as well and it makes for a deadly tandem. However, I think the biggest point of emphasis in receivers has to be Vernon Davis when it comes to the redzone as Jimmy Graham lit them up this year for 3 redzone TD passes over their 2 games against NO. Davis can have the same success here, so I think Vernon Davis Over 4 pass receptions (+100) (The Greek) is a great value in this game, and maybe even Vernon Davis to score the first TD (+800) as well.

One thing I don't like about SF at all is their offensive line. They ranked 29th in DVOA in run blocking this year and allowed a 7.8% sack rate (22nd). Frank Gore succeeds in spite of how bad they are, because he's amazing. However when you match the SF offensive line up against a tough, physical DL like Carolina, SF is at a disadvantage. If you look down the Niners' schedule, Gore's performances against tougher defensive fronts (SEA, ARI, STL, etc) is typically not very good because he's not getting much help. I think SF really struggles to run the ball in this game and will rely much more on their passing game to sustain drives. I think Kaepernick needs to be willing to pass on 1st down a little more frequently than they usually do, with quick passing routes. Slants and Davis/Crabtree crossing routes seem like the best way to put Carolina on their heels as they will certainly be applying pressure at the line from the first snap. I think Carolina will be ready for the bubble screen and it will be ineffective if over-used too early. Colin Kaepernick Over 16.5 pass completions (-115) has a good chance to hit.

On the other side of the ball, I think Newton will pass fairly effectively, if not very often. Greg Olsen is just so good at finding space and getting yardage to extend drives, and SF will have to double Steve Smith frequently, even if he's not 100% as he's a constant big play threat. However the strength of Carolina is their running game and we'll probably see a lot of running plays early for the Panthers. Carolina is very good in power sets, making short yardage plays when they need them with Mike Tolbert either lead blocking or carrying the ball. I think SF will struggle to prevent the Carolina run game from moving the ball, and the clock will run because of it.

Outside of props, I think I would be most likely to play this game as a CAR +7 / Under 48 teaser. I suspect there will be greater value available in live betting than playing either line straight. Maybe the 1H Under 21

[suicidekings]

2) Colts/Patriots 1Q Over 9.5 (-135) x1

[suicidekings]

3) LIVE (14-7 Pats, 4:35 1Q): Colts ML (+452) x1

[suicidekings]

4) Vernon Davis Over 4 receptions (+115) x1
5) Total Tackles + Assists by Luke Kuechly - Over 10.5 (-115) x1

[suicidekings]

6) Niners ML (-103) x3

As a Seahawks fan, I dislike the Niners. But this is the right side.

[suicidekings]

7) Chargers TT Over 23.5 (-113) x1
8) Teaser (6pt): Chargers +15.5 / Under 61 (+100) x1

The wind is really going to be a factor today, blowing at 45 kph right now.

[No coincidences]

6) Niners ML (-103) x3

As a Seahawks fan, I dislike the Niners. But this is the right side.

Nice call, SK. Solid.

[suicidekings]

Nice call, SK. Solid.

Thanks, NC.

[suicidekings]

9) LIVE (0-0, 4:48 1Q): Chargers ML (+401) x1

[No coincidences]

9) LIVE (0-0, 4:48 1Q): Chargers ML (+401) x1

Ballsy from what I've seen so far.

[suicidekings]

Ballsy from what I've seen so far.

Hard to really judge a defense too harshly for giving up a score on a Manning opening drive. It's what he does best. However they did force him to take longer to get that score than anyone else has done this season (14 plays, 7:01). Minor success

[Tommy Karate]

wow, i was going to come congratulate you on SD and you didnt even take them ATS as big as i assumed you were...

[suicidekings]

wow, i was going to come congratulate you on SD and you didnt even take them ATS as big as i assumed you were...

Yeah, I have the horrible habit of doing my analysis, then going against myself at the last minute. Cost me a little today, but meh...

[Tommy Karate]

Yeah, I have the horrible habit of doing my analysis, then going against myself at the last minute. Cost me a little today, but meh...

Panthers-Niners

I think it's pretty ridiculous for anyone to be extremely confident in a side in this game. These teams are actually very similar, with the only

6) Niners ML (-103) x3

As a Seahawks fan, I dislike the Niners. But this is the right side.

3x is a pretty big bet for you - you did well changing up last minute in that game..