DET TB O49.5 Atlanta's D made Tampa look good last week, but they do that to everyone. And Tampa's secondary could be problems for DET's pass-heavy attack. I agree to an extent with the market that this goes under, but I won't be playing it.
HOU JAX O43 The under here would be tempting were this in Jacksonville for reasons I'll leave off, which do side with your call on the game reasonably well. Still, Hou's averaging 20 points, JAX 12. Jax's defense is dogshit, but Houston's is great. And houston is not a drive team under Keenum, they look deep (which is often good for the over, though) - I think a lot of the reason JAX's defense is so bad is because they're on the field all day, which may not be the case here (I haven't watched them as much as I'd like, but they were a pretty solid D (jax) last year if memory serves).
KC(-5.5) KC should win, but SD's no slouch, and then you've got to worry about the fact that KC doesn't blow teams out. My worry is how the chargers average run D will hold up, or I'd like SD. Still tempted to tease, as unconventional as that is - KC just doesn't blow teams out so its hard to see them winning by double digits.
CAR(-4.5) - I lean this way as well, but I'm scared that "Riverboat Ron's" newly aggressive playcalling combined with some (un)timely sacks could cause Carolina to stall. I need to look into Miami against good defenses, but I remember earlier in the season they were fairly consistent when it came to putting up 20 points, which would be a worry laying this number.
CHI STL O46 Well McCown throws shorter, doesn't he? And is ST L still starting Clemens? Don't remember if he's more game manager or swing for the fences. But STL's run D can often collapse, and there seems to be some good special teams on both sides if memory serves. No real lean.
TENN How's OAK's new QB going to perform in his second outing? The stats from the first sounded good. That RB they got replacing mcfadden has been on a tear, too. Sure, I'd still say Tenn's slightly the better team, but they're going in to Oakland, so I wouldn't want to have to call it. IIRC they are coming off the bye though. As a general point, it seems like you undervalue homefield advantage and are especially quick to overs and favorites - this is often common for newer bettors, and I often feel like I haven't outgrown it myself, but I'm careful about picking my spots. Just be careful you aren't betting the entire board.
IND A tempting spot for a tease. Can Arizona really blow out the better team, even at home? Yet it seems indy can disappear at times. Haven't done any work on it yet, but I wouldn't want to have to call the side and I really don't see that changing for me.
NE They may get some favorable reffing after last week, but I don't fade Denver. Also happens I don't fade NE, but I'll be looking at the total. If Bellicheck has half a brain in his head (he does), he'll let Brady throw (Den 5th ypc mebe 4th against the run overall, but with a horrible secondary), so barring inclement weather, I'll prolly be on over 56.
SF I lean that way, but it's a lot of points to be breaking the rule "stay home on monday night." We'll see.
SF WASH O47.5 I do like this a lot, provided we can count on Was's up-and-down offense, but I think we can on MNF at home. SF has put up some serious points in most of their games, and Was's d shouldn't offer much resistance. If I could count on the line to sit here though, and the spread, I'd prefer SF team total > 27ish (assuming here Vernon Davis is 100%).
Just some initial thoughts, FWIW. BTW, make sure you check the weather before playing any overs.
Last edited by Noleafclover; 11-20-13 at 06:10 AM.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Leans
Reply With Quote