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Kansas City @ Denver: In-depth analysis
Well I’ve been reading the board and figured I start off with the game that most people are misreading. First, let me explain the method to my madness: When I ‘cap games, I break them down on a weighted factor-analysis range scale. In other words, I break them down quantitatively (stats), affectively (game’s meaning/public perception), situationally, technically (trend analysis), and financially (where the books stand to win most). That’s my formula. Of course, which factors I weigh more and to what extent and the precise mechanisms of my analysis I cannot divulge-- obviously. But I can give a general breakdown of the game. SO with that out of the way here’s the breakdown.
This whole Fukkn board has gone nuts with the idea that +8-9.5 Kansas City is the play….it is not. In fact, let me get that out of the way first….under NO circumstances should anyone be betting KC +7.5-9.5. Why? Because in the rare event that this game is won by 1-7 points…it will be won by the chiefs….meaning that you left the +330 moneyline value on the table. So that being said points with chief is an incredibly terrible play. Eliminate it from the realm of possibilities. Now why do I say the “rare event” that chiefs win. The KC chiefs with the flawless 9-0 record coming off of a bye week with bobble head Payton Manning going to MRIs due to injuries? Simply put, Kansas City is outmatched by about 5:1 on the offensive side of the ball. Sure defense can help you out, but @ then end of the day the defense doesn’t win games. Let’s be honest, Alex smith is a game manager and you’re not going to game manage when Denver is up by 14. Let’s not forget that KC was 2-14 last year and sure they brought in talent and made adjustments but that can only get you so far. The free ride ends in mile high Sunday.
The chiefs have only played under .500 teams. And well they will finally know where they stand. Here is my final breakdown: this is the PERFECT game to make a bundle off of. Denver can score on about 75%+ of their drives because Field goal range in Denver makes 55-60 yarders almost standard. That being said, the chiefs defense will try to keep Denver in FG range for the majority of the game. They might succeed they may not. In the end it doesn’t matter. KC sluggish offense will again be far too outmatched to keep it close. Denver will roll. Denver – 8 is the play. I will be putting around $1000 on that, with the condition that I hedge it with a 2-leg parlay KC +330 and KC/Denver under 50 for $100 to win $750. There is an 80% of the range of possibilities that Denver rolls but my hedge basically ensures me that I am freerolling and covering virtually the entire other 20% of possibilities. In the rare event that KC would win it would have to be because their defense kept Denver @ bay and thus a low scoring game. Final Score prediction: Denver 34 Kansas City 13
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Originally Posted by Sarunas
