[SteveRyan]

This game caught my eye for 2 main reasons:

The total opened at 54
Michael Vick

I'm positive there is a way to find some value somewhere in this match; the question is where.

In this thread I will give you an insight into how I cap games. I also am looking forward to input from those who can bring something substantial to the table.

First lets look at the opening line:
Total - 54
Philly -6.5

So lets think; how did the book come up with this? Obviously, they see NY scoring 24 and Philly scoring 30, but how do they arrive at these scores?

Giants have played 7 games. They've scored 15 TD's and 7 FG. That means they averaged 2.14 TD's per game and 1 FG per game. Add it up and we come to 17 points. But wait...were short 7 points off of the books 24.

The reason why is because they are excluding the week 3 game where they scored 0. By doing this, it creates a better representation of the Giants actual scoring potential. So, we do the math again, but at 6 games instead of 7. Now, Giants average 2.5 TD's per game and still 1 FG. Round up the TD's to 3 and we have our magic score of 24. Seems simple enough. Now on to Philly.

Philly has also played 7 games, but they've scored 18 TD's and 14 FG's. That averages to 2.57 TD's per game and 2 FG's. Round up the TD's to 3, add the FG's and we end up with 27. Again, we are short of the 30....but by only 3 points.

The books are adding an additional field goal. Why? Because Vick is a highly mobile QB who will get the Eagles down around the red zone one additional time.

So there we have it.

NY 24
Philly 30 / -6.5

Now the questions are:
Why the hook? Why the extra .5?
What will the Giants actually score in this game?
How accurate is Phillys 30?

[2daBank]

prob the hardest gm on the board to cap..seriously ill prob skim in Sat night and see if anything pops out but think in the end i will come up with too many question marks to have a solid range i feel good about.

[SteveRyan]

prob the hardest gm on the board to cap..seriously ill prob skim in Sat night and see if anything pops out but think in the end i will come up with too many question marks to have a solid range i feel good about.

What's so hard about it?

[2daBank]

What's so hard about it?

havnt capped but pretty easy to see from outside that ill have too many question marks i think are unanswerable to me anyway,, i prefer gms with less questions i think are hard to answer...

off top of my head, how well is vicks hammy? will he have to basically stay in the pocket? that makes a huge difference if nyg realizes they dont have to account for him in the zone read, obvioulsy if he babying hammy wont have the burst, do you know?

eli and nicks are question marks period? can you honestly tell me you have a baseline you can set for them and feel good about it? i cant?

is jacobs gonna play or be effective? doesnt seem real likely. what can you expect from hillis? i dunno after one gm where he didnt really do a whole lot vs a crappy minny d but nyg was inspired blocking and rushing w fat boy jacobs (albeit against shoddy bears dline but phillys not much better)..there 3 already and i havnt even dug in yet... so maybe Sat night i have a few more answers but prob still too many questions, hence hard to cap...but i mean if you think those questions are easy to answer or dont matter more power to ya..

[SteveRyan]

Wow! Those are all really good questions and I will look into it.

At first thought, I think Vick is good to go and wont have any issues with the hammy.

Regarding Eli, I'm expecting him to perform average to below average, but I will try to expand on this later.

[petey5]

I like the Giants to cover and the under.

[dirtycash66]

Two crappy teams, won't waste my time or money on that game. Next......

[wildcorndog]

Giants win by 12 or more

[SteveRyan]

Two crappy teams, won't waste my time or money on that game. Next......

Well then your pick should be easy on this one.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Giants Under does seem like money. I like Giants ML now.

[Roy Halladay]

Birds have lost 9 in a row at home. The defense has shown signs of figuring shit out the last few weeks. The Giants have no ability to run the ball, making them one dimensional. Eli seems to continue to force throws. Dude should have had 3+ picks against Minnesota. I like the Eagles to bounce back but it's not a game I'd rush to bet.

[RickyRoma]

too iffy teams that could blow each other out, dont know how good vick will be, im staying away from it, but i think the eagles are the play.

[Roy Halladay]

Plus I expect Kelly to work some play action in there. Dual tight-end sets. Some f'n creativity hopefully.

[beerman2619]

Giants Are Bucking Terrible. Any Fool Putting Money On Giants Deserves To Lose Money. Did People Think That Was An Impressive Win Monday Night By Giants Lmao. Eagles Already Beat Down Giants In New York. Same Story In Philly. Some Of You Just Don't Realize How Bad This Giants Team Is. Also Coming Off A Short Week.

[Joe D. 416]

Ggggggggggggggggggg-men

[chopperocker]

Eli is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when on the Road with in-season revenge, 4-2 SUATS as Road Dog vs Eagles, 1-1 SUATS as a Road Dog in the Pre-BYE game. Eagles 3 wins are vs teams with a current collective win/loss record of 3-16, Giants 6 losses vs teams with a current win/loss record of 28-14. i'll take a chance on the Giants plus the points.

[SteveRyan]

I've decided to take the under 54

Last week, someone posted that the Giants would be playing a conservative offence against the Vikings to minimize turnovers/interceptions and help to build up Eli's confidence. Well, that is exactly what happened: short, high percentage, low-risk plays got NY the win with zero interceptions. Because it worked last week, they will continue it going forward.

Vick will come out firing in an attempt to prove his worth, but as usual we will get a lack-luster performance with him mostly scrambling around like a wildcat. 20-30 attempts at around 50%.

It all adds up to a conservative, low scoring game.

[Okst.BIGPLAYS]

I've decided to take the under 54

Last week, someone posted that the Giants would be playing a conservative offence against the Vikings to minimize turnovers/interceptions and help to build up Eli's confidence. Well, that is exactly what happened: short, high percentage, low-risk plays got NY the win with zero interceptions. Because it worked last week, they will continue it going forward.

Vick will come out firing in an attempt to prove his worth, but as usual we will get a lack-luster performance with him mostly scrambling around like a wildcat. 20-30 attempts at around 50%.

It all adds up to a conservative, low scoring game.

I lean over and here is why

The Gmen played small ball because of there opponent being poor Minn. With Freeman at Qb everybody knew it was going to be a heavy dose of AP witch could be a problem if AP got it going, keeping the Gmens O off the field. So they loaded the box and kept Eli in check, a turn over could of been 10 min + points (7). thus less offensive plays to score.

The Eagles are much more balanced with Vick at helm, and its not all about Vick in this game. He makes every player around him better, McCoy's stats are better, Jacksons stats are better, Avants stats are better. At home Philly loves to push the tempo almost if not fastest in the league...so possessions for the Gmen wont be an issue and Philly already knows how to beat the Giants squad (36-21). Gmen cant go out there and play keep away form Philly like they did Minn as Philly as I expect will light up the Gmens secondary with play action and screens. Gmen will be forced to throw the ball down field as Phillys linebackers are much faster underneath than Minn and will try to take those short passes away. Down the field will be open for Eli as the Gmens receiving corps are fast and far superior to the chitty Phillys secondary. Gmen give up over 250 a game via air mail. The safety's for New york will play in the box some to slow McCoy, leaving a streaking Jackson down field often.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the NY Giants last 14 games on the road BUT!!!!The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home!! Phillys pass defense is BAD BAD BAD allowing over 300 yards in the air.

So Philly usually scores at home and Eli will be throwing the rock against a poor secondary for a high scoring game 37ish to 28ish Philly is what I'm thinking

BOL hope this helps some LOL

[SteveRyan]

I lean over and here is why

The Gmen played small ball because of there opponent being poor Minn. With Freeman at Qb everybody knew it was going to be a heavy dose of AP witch could be a problem if AP got it going, keeping the Gmens O off the field. So they loaded the box and kept Eli in check, a turn over could of been 10 min + points (7). thus less offensive plays to score.

The Eagles are much more balanced with Vick at helm, and its not all about Vick in this game. He makes every player around him better, McCoy's stats are better, Jacksons stats are better, Avants stats are better. At home Philly loves to push the tempo almost if not fastest in the league...so possessions for the Gmen wont be an issue and Philly already knows how to beat the Giants squad (36-21). Gmen cant go out there and play keep away form Philly like they did Minn as Philly as I expect will light up the Gmens secondary with play action and screens. Gmen will be forced to throw the ball down field as Phillys linebackers are much faster underneath than Minn and will try to take those short passes away. Down the field will be open for Eli as the Gmens receiving corps are fast and far superior to the chitty Phillys secondary. Gmen give up over 250 a game via air mail. The safety's for New york will play in the box some to slow McCoy, leaving a streaking Jackson down field often.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the NY Giants last 14 games on the road BUT!!!!The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home!! Phillys pass defense is BAD BAD BAD allowing over 300 yards in the air.

So Philly usually scores at home and Eli will be throwing the rock against a poor secondary for a high scoring game 37ish to 28ish Philly is what I'm thinking

BOL hope this helps some LOL

I disagree with a lot of that, mostly how you disregard the Gmens attempts to get Eli back on track by saying it was just a plan for dealing with Minny. It's not a one game change. Eli is a turnover machine right now and they need to get that under control. The solution is west coast strategy. Gmen cant afford anymore interceptions; conservative play is the only answer.

You also say that Philly has a lousy secondary. If that's the case, then it suits the Gmen perfectly allowing even more short, high percentage passing plays. Faster linebackers? That's not gonna change the game plan or force Eli back into his old ways.

[Okst.BIGPLAYS]

Conservative is not going to get it done on the road with a fast paced Eagles team that puts up big numbers at home hence the stat of the last 7 of 9 at home have been overs. Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing NY Giants, I think the Gmen know they are going to need to score points in bunches to keep up. Again conservative is not going to get it done in this match up, New York needs this win...as coach Tom's job is on the line.

[Big Bear]

hardest game to cap on the whole card.

Staying far away from this one.

[Okst.BIGPLAYS]

Faster linebackers?? YEA!!!! Philly plays a 3-4 Olb will be playing underneath with blitzpackages...if the Giants line pick it up..lots of salsa!!!!

[Okst.BIGPLAYS]

hardest game to cap on the whole card.

Staying far away from this one.

I couldn't agree more Bear

[kevin101]

eagles. did u guys forget that gmen played monday?????????????????????????????? short week + they fhking blow dink = philly win
=cover. vick is back.

[2daBank]

I've decided to take the under 54

Last week, someone posted that the Giants would be playing a conservative offence against the Vikings to minimize turnovers/interceptions and help to build up Eli's confidence. Well, that is exactly what happened: short, high percentage, low-risk plays got NY the win with zero interceptions. Because it worked last week, they will continue it going forward.

Vick will come out firing in an attempt to prove his worth, but as usual we will get a lack-luster performance with him mostly scrambling around like a wildcat. 20-30 attempts at around 50%.

It all adds up to a conservative, low scoring game.

wow man, you got a really good number.. that half the battle.. i prob lean that way but way to easy for this to turn into shootout, of the gms lined over 50 tho i think this the most likely to stay under... i think "low scoring" pretty optimistic but a gm played in the mid 20s certainly decent possibility, gl

[Le_Donk]

this game can go either way, whoever has less turnovers covers the spread

[2daBank]

this game can go either way, whoever has less turnovers covers the spread

that can be said bout 80% of gms really but i get what you saying here given both these teams propensity to turn it over like they trying to break records..

[Blaker88]

Both very poor teams. I feel the under is a great chance. I still think that most bookies feel like these are both high potent, high scoring offenses.

When in reality, they are both currently inept and the total is too high. If Vick has trepidation with his hamstring, that will go along way to getting the under. I think the score will be more like 21-13 Eagles.

[2daBank]

Both very poor teams. I feel the under is a great chance. I still think that most bookies feel like these are both high potent, high scoring offenses.

When in reality, they are both currently inept and the total is too high. If Vick has trepidation with his hamstring, that will go along way to getting the under. I think the score will be more like 21-13 Eagles.

just mistakes by both qbs could lead to 3 tds, of coarse it could help keep points off the board as well,, think you really low with nyg score here but i been wrong before..if you really believe it that far off you should put it in a pleaser..

[Blaker88]

just mistakes by both qbs could lead to 3 tds, of coarse it could help keep points off the board as well,, think you really low with nyg score here but i been wrong before..if you really believe it that far off you should put it in a pleaser..

Haha well yes well i am an NYG fan so I think i will just watch this one without anything on it.

As someone has already said in this thread, this is the type of game i'd stay away from. Both teams lack consistency (and as you've pointed out, many turnovers are highly likely) and you really don't know what you are going to get. I'd take the under if I had to bet on it but will steer clear this week and hope for 2 wins a row.

[2daBank]

Haha well yes well i am an NYG fan so I think i will just watch this one without anything on it.

As someone has already said in this thread, this is the type of game i'd stay away from. Both teams lack consistency (and as you've pointed out, many turnovers are highly likely) and you really don't know what you are going to get. I'd take the under if I had to bet on it but will steer clear this week and hope for 2 wins a row.

post #4..like i said i got no freaking clue on this one and aint ashamed to admit it..i agree gun to head id have played under when it was higher but who knows...all i really want is for Nicks to act like he gives a fukk bout making some money next year and have a big gm since im forced to start him this week on my fantasy team due to byes,, sux i drafted this prick but seems like ive had him every yr since his second when he was a steal, this yr figured contract yr he would show out and play threw injury, he playing, not really showing out tho, if he not dropping them eli sailing them over his head..dude been riding the pine since like week 3 but no choice this week unless i wanna roll the dice with lance moore or something (which i actually considered, lol);.dont he wanna get paid? fuk nicks cmon man!!

[SteveRyan]

wow man, you got a really good number.. that half the battle.. i prob lean that way but way to easy for this to turn into shootout, of the gms lined over 50 tho i think this the most likely to stay under... i think "low scoring" pretty optimistic but a gm played in the mid 20s certainly decent possibility, gl

I wasn't able to get that number actually. Ended up with 50.5.

Under is looking good right now at the half with only 12 points on the board.

[Okst.BIGPLAYS]

Be the last time I back Philly's offense...

[SteveRyan]

Under 50.5 WON



YTD: 20-18