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Just sticking with the trend of elite road favorites covering a high percentage of the time. I do like Carolina's front 7 and I mentioned that Lotulelei is an absolute monster and probably the steal of the draft. I like the under as well Because I don't see CAR sustaining drives and SEA plays great special teams and the field position game as well as anyone. I like SEA simply because they're the better team even missing Clemons and Irvin.Originally Posted by 2daBank
Looks like Cowherd is with us on 4/5 of these except SEA and sharps supposedly ready to pounce if/when this gets to 4 which I can see. I expressed initially that I liked SEA at -2.5 and CAR at +3.5 w/ a no-play at -3. Yesterday I amended that to include SEA-3. If you can't get it at -3, wait until about an hour prior after sharps hammer this thing. It won't get back to -3-110 because public is on SEA so hard, but it will get closer than it is now. Seattle has probably the best trend I found so far working in their favor on this game:
Road teams anywhere from -7 to +3.5 that the public is 60%-75% behind in terms of bet volume are 279-204, 58.6% excluding Week 17. Troy West is with us on SEA as well as Buffalo. He's probably the capper along with Cowherd whose opinions I put the most stock in.
Last edited by MobFade; 09-06-13 at 05:17 PM.
Looks like a lot of plays aren't there anymore at the numbers I posted earlier in the week. If you can't get them now, wait until a few hours before kickoff when the other side comes in to maybe balance it out a bit.
Wow your knowledge and analysis is second to none. I will definitely be checking this thread all season long regardless of your results. How do you know so much about non-skill position players like interior linemen?
Thanks man, but there are definitely a few guys on this board that know a lot more about betting the NFL and probably rosters than me. As far as that goes, I have a lot of free time and for the last 3 years I've watched almost every video that the guys on draftbreakdown.com come out with as far as college prospects. As far as rating them, I read "Take Your Eye Off the Ball" by Pat Kirwan to get a feel initially and then just putting in those years watching tape all off-season, to include replays of the previous season I got a good feel for how each position should be played (footwork, hand use, instincts, leverage, etc). I watched every snap of last year's NFL season with Game Rewind because you can just skip from play to play and watch a game in about 30 mins. When I watch football now I usually just watch their lines battle and see who's getting blown up and who's blowing people up. Knowing what plays these teams like to run on either side of the ball will also give you a glimpse into the minds of their coordinators so you can assess who would fit those schemes as far as talent in the draft. Understanding the personnel types that would fit each scheme, gap assignments, and how plays are drawn up is huge too and you can find that on youtube.
I argue football with a couple of my friends all the time which requires me to look up stats so I can disprove the dumb shit they say. I'm in half a dozen fantasy leagues, I bet almost every game, I'm in a bunch of survivor pools, I make ridiculous prop bets surrounding the NFL with my friends, and I bet futures. I have a good feel for everyone's identity as far as teams go, I don't weight any one position or game too highly, and I know inside and out the strengths and weaknesses of 80% of the guys drafted in the first 5 rounds to gauge how much they will help their team. I'm a mock draft junkie.
So the challenge is extrapolating that into picking ATS and for that I like situational trends, overall roster talent, a good feel of line value, anticipating line movement, and just generally keeping an analytical mind when you watch something like BAL get blown out by DEN in primetime.
And how could I forget ... read RotoWorld Player News every day.
i agree, you seem to really know your stuff MobFade. how's your record been in NFL betting in the past years?
I didn't keep track of my record until Week 8 of last year and went 62-51-4 after that. My roll increased about 12% last year just flat-betting 2%, and this will be the first time I try multi-unit plays.
Last edited by MobFade; 09-07-13 at 09:30 PM.
While we would all describe your prop bets as ridiculous, you do have the benefit of not being nicknamed ATM.
Rakey you gonna post your picks or what
To recap the card for today:
BUF+10.5-110 | 2 UNITS
TEN+7-110 | 1 UNIT
KC-3-135 | 1 UNIT
ATL+3.5-115 | 1.5 UNITS
SEA-2.5-110 | 1 UNIT
TB-3-115 | 1 UNIT
CIN+3.5-115 | 1 UNIT
CLE-PK-110 | 1 UNIT
MIN+4.5-110 | 1 UNIT
SF-4.5-110 | 1 UNIT
PHI+4-110 | 1 UNIT
NYG+3-100 | 1 UNIT
NYG+3.5-110 | .5 UNIT
HOU-3-120 | 1.5 UNITS
2-TEAM / 6-POINT
NE-1.5 / CLE+8 | 1.5 UNITS
Bets span back to Week 2 of Pre-Season and all bets or links to those bets are in this thread. I know almost none of these lines are available anymore so you guys shoulda been tailing soonerI can't really recommend any of these if you can only get them on the other side of the 3, 7, or 10 from where I booked it, as most of the reason for getting it was the line value. I think I got almost all of these at their best prices except MIN and NYG as of now but we're still 4 hours prior so a ways to go.
Feel like a pretty big square for betting almost every game but it is what it is. You'll also notice I got 2 units on BUF+10.5, but NE-1.5 in a tease and I also have NE in a $250 buy-in survivor pool. Not an ideal situation but I took BUF after EJ started practicing again and the 10.5 was the Jeff Tuel line so I thought that was good value on a good number. Pretty much just guarantees I won't be watching that game after the constant sweat having BAL+9 and DEN in another survivor pool on Thursday.
buf a solid play..home dogs catching 8 or more have fared incredibly well the last several years...surprised you choose to use pats up this week in your eliminator bracket, is it one where you can use same team more than once or something?
No I'm in 3 with a local. Used IND in the big one, NE in the mid, DEN in the small one. These things are only 50-75 people deep, so it's over by Week 8-10 and no point in saving plays. Also want to make sure to get out of Week 1 alive which is usually really tough. Guys that save picks get crushed usually. Actually 2 years ago made it to the final 3 in Week 7 or 8 to win 13k. Picked a -4.5 as the best team left, both other guys took dogs. I lost, they both won and chopped. Neither of them had a clue they were picking dogs.
Home dogs +6.5 or greater are killing it: 116-85, 57.7%
BIGHOMEDOG .5.jpg
Dogs +10.5 or greater, home or away are killing it as well: 149-114, 56.7%
BIGSPREAD .5.jpg
right on, the one i play in you gotta be strategic in mapping out when you using teams to have any shot. i agree surviving is number 1 but honestly i fell better with indy than pats this week anyway and this the best matchup for indy all year while pats still have jets twice ..
Adding one more play and it's a Total. I suck at these but it looks a little steamy heading back to 49.5 a lot of places. Both Teams D-lines will out-perform the O-lines.
NYG/DAL UNDER 50-110 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
even crazier, home dogs of 8 or more are 24-3 the last 3 years..
Well there ya go. Free money.
Hopefully not in the Pats game today... Like most the other picks though
Good stuff
Jesus what a close day ATS. I don't remember it ever being this close. Cashing:
BUF+10.5 2 UNITS
TEN+7 1 UNIT
KC-3 1 UNIT
SEA-2.5 1 UNIT
CIN+3.5 1 UNIT
Lost with:
ATL+3.5-115 - 1.5 UNITS
CLE-PK - 1 UNITS
TB-3-115 1 UNIT
MIN+4.5 -1 UNIT
NE-1.5/CLE+8 -1.5 UNITS
Didn't see any of the losing games except the Brownies. So many penalties cancelling out TD's. They threw the covering TD inside of 2 min but was called back. Speaking of that teaser, crazy game in NE. Didn't watch it but was sweating there. MIN I didn't watch but they were covering until 4th quarter and then had multiple shots to come back. ATL I heard SJax dropped the game winner. TB didn't watch either but didn't score in 2nd half until late 'game-winner' to go up and not cover. Holding out judgement 'til I can watch the replay but another game that was right there to be won. Only loser that didnt' have a chance was CLE-PK. Pretty sick I think when the Seattle game ended we were winning every bet except CLE-PK and ATL was .5 from covering a believe and then most of them fell apart, but that's how it goes.
Can't complain too much because we eeked out two with SEA and CIN cashes. Also locked down a PIT/TEN under that I didn't post here but put in my SBR spreadsheet so that was nice, but we'll stick with the posted card and currently -.1 unit going into the night games.
Last edited by MobFade; 09-08-13 at 03:45 PM.
Someone should have told the teams in the NYG/DAL game that the Regular Season has started. That was embarrassing for both teams. The NYG in that they turned the ball over 6 times, and for Dallas that they only turned it over once yet the NYG still had a chance to win with 2:30 left to start a drive in the 4th. Wish I could feel bad for D Wilson, but he blew it. I thought it was funny that after the first fumble, he was protecting the ball so much that he started plodding around and running like crap, then he fumbled it again anyway. These rosters are wrecked by injury so any plays on them are going to be late-week to see who's going and who's not. Lost 1.5u in the afternoon games after cashing SF and losing NYG ATS for 1.5u and NYG/DAL under 50 for 1u.
The only consolation I have is that we beat the closing line on almost every single line, and most importantly, many of them were across key numbers. Just got unlucky in a couple really close spots and had 1.5u loss as opposed to a couple unit gain. Still got tomorrow's games and I noticed I accidentally bet HOU-3 for 1.5u twice, so that was a nice surprise for me. Also on PHI+4.
lookin foward to this weeks picks ..
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