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NCAAF Week 5/NFL Week 4: Justin7 and Peter Loshak discuss
It’s finally Week 5 in college football, which means that same-season statistical data starts to become meaningful and have predictive value. SBR’s own Justin7 has a model that he believes in strongly and has proven to be profitable for him over the years, including yielding an impressive ATS record of 9-2 in 2008. He is now sharing the model’s line valuations as part of his ongoing weekly analysis with Peter Loshak.
#20 BYU is a 24-point home favorite over Utah State, and BYU has shown signs of being not quite as fearsome as they have been in recent years, and as they were again expected by some to be this year. The Cougars suffered a humiliating home blowout loss to Florida State two weeks ago, and last week beat Colorado State in a game where they nevertheless were outgained in yardage and were the beneficiaries of numerous drives that started deep in Ram territory. Utah State has hung tough with some top programs already this year, and both Loshak and Justin7 identify the Aggies getting 24 points as a side with likely value.
Two Top 25 teams, #9 Ohio State and #8 Oklahoma, are coming off of two straight “shutouts”, having each held their opponents scoreless two weeks in a row. Ohio State faces Indiana as a 17-point road favorite, and Indiana may be considerably better this year than their lowly reputation might suggest. Justin7 indicates he would take the Hoosiers plus the points if the line becomes just slightly more advantageous on their side.
#17 Miami Florida will be experiencing a stark role-reversal in a seven-day span. Just last week, Miami was a much-heralded road favorite, only to fall flat to Virginia Tech. Now they are a 7.5-point home dog to incoming juggernaut Oklahoma, a team that appears to have its traditionally explosive offense, but may now also feature a top defense to boot. This game will likely say a lot about the true ability of both teams this year, and neither Loshak nor Justin7 feel confident calling for value on any betting line for this game.
The most-anticipated game of the week may be the showdown between #7 USC and #24 California. Both teams have obvious strengths but also some question marks coming into this game. USC is dealing with several key injuries, while Cal is dealing with the memory of an ugly blowout loss to Oregon last week. USC is about a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. Justin7’s model puts the fair line for the game closer to 7, but stops short of endorsing a bet on USC, while Loshak is betting the under 47.5.
Finally, Justin7 reaffirms his oft-noted fondness for betting on non-name-brand teams, citing New Mexico +35.5 and Louisiana-Monroe at anything under -7 as low profile sides with value he will be betting.
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Originally Posted by Robyn
