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BGboothA's Wk 4 (Notes and thoughts on every game)
Done with the first seven games of the weekend. Let me know what you think or don't, its up to you. Record is up to date and Spreadsheet is available via the link.
DETROIT @ CHICAGO (CHI -10) (39) (+390)
Chicago has only averaged 19 points per game, while giving up 18 points per game. A 10 point spread here is going to be tough. Granted Detroit has given up a league worst 28.7, but that number is grossly inflated thanks to the 45 points that New Orleans scored in week 1. Chicago has given up 94 yards rushing per game! If Kevin Smith can go on Sunday, there is no way this game gets out of hand and into double digits. Detroit is a better team than people realize and Chicago is a worse team than people realize. The Bears struggled to beat the Seattle Seahawks backups last week. Look for Chicago to struggle at home and rely on a late Gould feild goal to pull this one out. Detroit stays in teh game the whole 60 minutes and Detroit covers.
DET +10 (2 units)
DET +390 (.5 units)
CINCINNATTI @ CLEVELAND (CLE +5.5) (38)
This game should be a 10+ point spread, Cleveland gives up an amazing 31.7 points per game, and Cincinnati's offense has just starting clicking. Look for Benson to have a huge game this weekend, Cincinatti has averaged an amazing 143 yards a game on the ground, Cleveland has allowed an ridiculous 184 yards on the ground per game. Cleveland coaching and quarterbacking is in shambles, while Cincinnatti is coming off two huge wins and will look to roll through this one. Cincy will use this game as a practice to get ready for a real opponent later in the season. Even if Cincy jumps out to a quick lead and tries to run out the clock on the ground, they will probably score a couple more TDs.
CINCY -5.5 (3 units)
SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS (+10.5) (44)
Hasselbeck isn't the only question here, the Seahawks are missing at least one of their studly linebacking crew in Leroy Hill and may be missing their captain on defense for the third game in a row in Lofa Tatupu. If Lofa plays I could see this game staying closer than the 10.5, but being in Indy and so many injury questions with Seattle, I would stay far away from this game here. I don't like playing double digit spreads in the NFL. The Seahawks have held opponents to only 175 passing yards per game, but have yet to play a real passing offense. Look for Indy to jump out to a quick lead and the Hawks out of the game early. I would lean to taking Indy here and giving up the 10.5 points, its just tough to give any NFL team a 10.5 spread with confidence.
NO BET
NEW YORK GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY (KC +9) (42.5)
28-10, This game matches up way to easy. This is a top three NFL team against a bottom 3 NFL team. The Cheifs may not win a game until much later in the season. New Yorks passing game has the ability to put points on the board in a hurry. Kansas City has given up almost 250 passing yards a game, and Eli should have a field day picking his way down the field against the chiefs. Cassel is going to have to find a way to throw the ball against a team that already has 5 interceptions this season. New York should jump ahead early and lean on the duo of Jacobs and Bradshaw to grind the game to a bitter end. Giants defense could easily put up another shut out. I don't see how the Giants dont' cover the 9 point spread.
GIANTS -9 (2 units)
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND (NE -1) (44.5)
Another tough game to cap this week. Really looking forward to watching this game this weekend. I am just not sure who New England is yet, if they are the New England that showed up against the Jets or Buffalo the Ravens should win this game, if they are the New England that stomped Atlanta this weekend I don't see how they don't win at home again here. Baltimore is going to play solid defense and attack Brady just like the Jets did a couple of weeks ago. Its going to come down to whether or not Brady makes the plays he needs to make. Baltimore's offense isn't anything to joke about either, Flacco has Baltimore putting up major points, they won't have it quite as easy this weekend. Baltimore has the ability to win this game, but my lean is toward New England
NO BET
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON (WAS -7) (37)
Is Washington really as bad as they look, they almost lost to STL, they did lose to DET. The days of the NFC east being 4 deep are over. This is a must win game for Washington and Zorn at home. But a 7 point spread is just too much to lay for a team that has averaged less than 14 points per week scored. Just playing the math, if Washington scores their average, all Tampa has to do is get one TD and they will cover the 7 point spread. I don't think Washington is as bad as they look, they juts have too much talent in Moss, Portis, Campbell and Cooley to be this bad offensively. I would expect Zorn and the Skins to come out throwing against a horrible TB secondary, but I won't put my money behind them until they prove they can score.
NO BET
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE (JAX +3) (41.5)
This looks like a mirror playing each other on Sunday. Two teams with explosive running games who pride themselves on Defense and a passing game to move the sticks and not make mistakes. I do believe that TEN is the better team here, but Jacksonville at home will put up a good fight, the three point spread is just about right and I see no advantage either way. The over under could have a look here, but with two strong defenses and two running games with the potential to score at any time, it could be a 10-7 game and it could be a 33-30 game. I am just staying away period. GL to all who want to cap this one.
NO BET
Hoping to have the rest of the picks up late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.
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Originally Posted by jfore
