1. #1
    stocker08
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    7 Team Parlay

    Houston Texans (-425) vs. Oakland Raiders
    Tenn Titans (-2.5) (-125) vs. Jacksonville Jags
    Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) (-225) vs. Cleveland Browns Bought 3 points
    NY Giants (-9) (+105) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
    Chicago Bears (-475) vs. Detroit Lions
    San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) (-220) vs. St. Louis Rams Bought 4 points
    Dallas Cowboys (-150) vs. Denver Broncos

    Bet 1 unit. Pays a little over 18 units.

    What do you think? A winner???

  2. #2
    Robust
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    i like it!

    as of right now, ten and cincy make me nervous.. but I haven't finished capping the game.. I can see the oddsmakers ****in with us with the line and they lose badly.. lol

    more nervous about ten than cincy as of right now.. (i keep flip flopping.. lol)

    good luck!

    Robust

  3. #3
    stocker08
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    Cincy should be able to handle the browns. Tennessee is better than they have been playing and I really think that they can get the win. If those two go the way I want them to, my chances are looking pretty good.

  4. #4
    BGboothA
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    I don't know about a 7 team parlay that pays 18-1. So much in the NFL can change in a second. I like each individual play as an individual. But this is a big parlay to hit without getting the right odds, IMO. Good Luck. I am on a number of those games as well.

  5. #5
    Limey
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    Sadly, I think the chances are that at least one of those 7 will fail.

  6. #6
    BGboothA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limey View Post
    Sadly, I think the chances are that at least one of those 7 will fail.
    This is deep, what do you think the chances are that one does fail.....maybe 18-1.

  7. #7
    stocker08
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    Most likely one does fail. I just took a collection of picks I thought I would win. I was going to do like a 4 team parlay, but I kept seeing more and more matchups that were favorable.

    Tennesse and Cincinnati are the only games there that I am kind of worried about. The rest should fall into place if these teams play the way they have.

  8. #8
    Limey
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    Quote Originally Posted by BGboothA View Post
    This is deep, what do you think the chances are that one does fail.....maybe 18-1.
    I guess you're being sarcastic. If it was only 17-1 that only one team lost then the parlay wouldn't be a half-bad bet, but seven-selection parlays are a bloody miracle to pull off.

    I reckon it's about 28 to 1 that all seven selections win, which would mean at least one will lose 28 times out of 29.....

    I'd be most worried about Tenessee, NYG, 49ers and Dallas I think.
    Last edited by Limey; 09-30-09 at 10:35 PM. Reason: Added something

  9. #9
    Robust
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    you know what.. lol

    i like it so much, I am playing it on the spreads.. no buying points or using MLs.. woot!

    but I am excluding chicago.. they f\*\*k me all the time.. with or against, they f\*\*k me.. lol

    but not jinxing ya.. not playing, so you got your original shot

    good luck!

    Robust

  10. #10
    Robust
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robust View Post
    you know what.. lol

    i like it so much, I am playing it on the spreads.. no buying points or using MLs.. woot!

    but I am excluding chicago.. they f\*\*k me all the time.. with or against, they f\*\*k me.. lol

    but not jinxing ya.. not playing, so you got your original shot

    good luck!

    Robust
    wow! just did some math and came up with OVER 53-1 payout.. lol

    all favorites.. I just hated the shit out of this parlay.. but I am doing it anyway.. lol

    $5 to win ~$268

    gotta fund the account.. went crazy with 2-teamers.. will place it tommorrow..

    Robust

  11. #11
    stocker08
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    Yeah, if these pan out, big payoffs. Not Likely, but shit, it could happen. With the points I bought on games i was questioning, I really think it has a 23% chance (pulled that number outta my ass).

  12. #12
    Robust
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    Quote Originally Posted by stocker08 View Post
    Yeah, if these pan out, big payoffs. Not Likely, but shit, it could happen. With the points I bought on games i was questioning, I really think it has a 23% chance (pulled that number outta my ass).
    HAHAHAHA

    at LEAST have the skills to KNOW what the odds are bro.. COME ON!!

    Robust

  13. #13
    Limey
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    Unless I'm missing something, there's no way this 7-team parlay pays 53-1. Absolutely no way - most of the selections are heavy favourites.

  14. #14
    JGILL50
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    add the night game for some hedging opportunity

  15. #15
    Timmay
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robust View Post
    you know what.. lol

    i like it so much, I am playing it on the spreads.. no buying points or using MLs.. woot!

    but I am excluding chicago.. they f\*\*k me all the time.. with or against, they f\*\*k me.. lol

    but not jinxing ya.. not playing, so you got your original shot

    good luck!

    Robust


    Lol what happens with you and Chicago that happens with me with NYG

  16. #16
    stocker08
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    ? Giants have been solid all year. Chicago should also get the win at home.... bet straight money line just in case.

  17. #17
    skydivr
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limey View Post
    Unless I'm missing something, there's no way this 7-team parlay pays 53-1. Absolutely no way - most of the selections are heavy favourites.
    Yep, I checked and got just under 35-1 WITHOUT buying the points down.

    I like the picks though.

  18. #18
    Robust
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limey View Post
    Unless I'm missing something, there's no way this 7-team parlay pays 53-1. Absolutely no way - most of the selections are heavy favourites.
    if you mean my parlay, yes it does.. but mine is a 6-picker ALL on the spreads.. no ML's or buying points..

    Robust

  19. #19
    Robust
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    Quote Originally Posted by skydivr View Post
    Yep, I checked and got just under 35-1 WITHOUT buying the points down.

    I like the picks though.
    check mine.. all spreads..

    Robust

  20. #20
    Mr. Sanders
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    Lousy chance

    A 7 teamer has a 1 of 128 odds or .781% chance of winning and so mathematically speaking you don't have a good chance of winning but GL to ya!

  21. #21
    stocker08
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Sanders View Post
    A 7 teamer has a 1 of 128 odds or .781% chance of winning and so mathematically speaking you don't have a good chance of winning but GL to ya!
    Those odds are probably calculated for coin flips. I bought points on games I thought were questionable. What do you think the odds are that my 3 money line bets win??? 2:1, if not higher. I think that 1:128 odds are off.

  22. #22
    Parligod
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    I like Chicago wining straight up but I don't like the spread of +10 over the Lions. I think the Lions are a less-then-average team but there's like 4-5 I can think of that are worse. They'll lose but not badly.

  23. #23
    Mr. Sanders
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    Quote Originally Posted by stocker08 View Post
    Those odds are probably calculated for coin flips. I bought points on games I thought were questionable. What do you think the odds are that my 3 money line bets win??? 2:1, if not higher. I think that 1:128 odds are off.
    No those odds are not off they are true mathematical odds, there exist a 128 different combinations and you have to find the right one or 1 of 128. You are looking at it in your perspective but in a mathematical perspective the odds are 1 of 128 for a 7 teamer. Nothing is a sure thing, heavy favs do lose straight up from time to time and so you can't take it for granted that your fav ML picks will win for sure.


  24. #24
    dbniner
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    7 game parley to risky

    I think 3 or 4 parley is less risk and payoff is high. Last week I did 3 parley and won over $300 and I was very confident of the games I picked.
    I am thinking of 2 game parley NYG, and Dallas
    or a 3 gamer with Cin over Clev

    Any thoughts

  25. #25
    BGboothA
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    Yeah I don't mind the 2 to 3 game parlays, but 7? Woo

  26. #26
    stocker08
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Sanders View Post
    No those odds are not off they are true mathematical odds, there exist a 128 different combinations and you have to find the right one or 1 of 128. You are looking at it in your perspective but in a mathematical perspective the odds are 1 of 128 for a 7 teamer. Nothing is a sure thing, heavy favs do lose straight up from time to time and so you can't take it for granted that your fav ML picks will win for sure.

    Yeah, there are 128 different possibilities, but some combinations have a much higher chance than others. I took the money line on several favorites. A .781% chance. Thats not right.

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