Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (3-0)(+6.00 units)
Regular Plays (3-2)(+0.80 units)
Overall (7-3)(+6.50 units)
SEASON OVERALL
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (3-0)(+6.00 units)
Regular Plays (3-2)(+0.80 units)
Overall (7-3)(+6.50 units)
Very, very happy with week one in the NFL. Made up for my first two weeks in college football where I am down six units. Only problem is I am doing the opposite of what I normally do. I usually win Saturday and give it back Sunday. Guess I am due for a change. Time will tell. Really looking forward to week two in the pros and week three in the colleges. Week two for some reason seems like a scary week to me.
Pittsburgh -3 vs. Chicago (best bet) Just read somewhere that Pittsburgh is 1-11 lifetime playing at Chicago. That is a shocker, but I am willing to bet that they are aware of that and will be focused more than usual for this one. I was sort of high on Chicago in the preseason, but now I am not so sure. A ton of pressure on Cutler and facing the Steelers defense is not the way to try and find a cure. You know Cutler is good for two interceptions and maybe more. Ben and Pittsburgh might not light up the scoreboard, but they wont need to with this line only being three. This one almost looks too easy to me, but it is my best bet of the week.
Denver -3 vs. Cleveland (best bet) ..When Denver and Chicago traded QBs, I thought Chicago was a team on the rise and Denver was in for a long season. I know it is only week two, but I may have been completely wrong about both teams. I was impressed with Denver winning last week at what was supposed to be an improved Cincinnati team. Their defense really shocked me. Based on this line you would have thought this game was in Cleveland. Let us not forget to that Denver is playing Cleveland. This one looks just as easy as the Steeler game to me. I am going 0-2 or 2-0 on my best bets this week. Obviously I think I am going 2-0 since my wallet says so.
San Fran -1.5 vs. Seattle (strong play) .Everybody has been talking about what an improved team the niners will be this year. I would have to agree after winning at Arizona last week. Sure Seattle is also a team that should be greatly improved as well, but Seattle has always been great at home and average on the road. San Fran for the first time in years has given their fans a reason to be excited. I see them being really fired up and taking care of business in their home opener and getting a 7-10 point win. I really thought this line would be 3 or 3.5. Niners playing well for their coach who does not accept losing.
New Orleans pick vs. Philadelphia (strong play) This should be a great game, but it would be even greater if Philly did not have all their QB issues once again this season with injuries. For me this is simple. New Orleans is the better team and the only thing in favor of the Eagles is home field, but in Philly sometimes that can go against you if you fall behind early and the fans turn on you. Brees wont throw for six TDs this week, but he will still move the ball and put enough points on the board to get the win. No spread to worry about covering, just get the win. I just dont see Philly matching or trading points in this one. Unless Brees just has a horrible game, I dont see a problem in this one.
Tennessee -6.5 vs. Houston (regular play) .I was all over Houston last week and they just plain sucked. This is supposed to be their year where they finally live up to expectations. What a horrible showing at home vs. the Jets last week. They probably will bounce back somewhat, but they are going to face a team just as anxious to as they are to get playing again. Tennessee outplayed Pittsburgh last week and lost, so I think they put it all together this week at home and get a surprisingly easy win. Home field makes a huge difference in this game. Lets call it Tennessee 30-13.
Washington -9.5 vs. St Louis (regular play) ..My first thoughts were you have to be crazy to take Washington and give anybody 9.5 points. Washington has a nice cover at the Giants last week and now they get to come home and play what appears to be a horrible St Louis team. It is not too often that Washington gets a game where it appears this easy. They should be able to name the score in this one. Should at least be a 14 point win.
New England -3.5 vs. Jets (regular play) I think the world might be rooting for the Jets this week and why not. Jets have a solid team, a possible future star QB and they got a huge win on the road at Houston last week. The Pats looked bad except for the last few minutes last week at home vs. Buffalo. The Jets should be favored in this game, but they are not and for good reason. Pats just get into the heads of the Jets and always find a way to beat them. My only fear is the Pats win, but by three or less, that is why this is only a one unit play for me.
I have not made up my mind on the Sunday night game yet. I am leaning towards Dallas at home and I know I like the Dolphins on Monday night, but I am hoping that line goes to 3.5. As soon as it does I will jump on it.
I will be back sometime on Sunday to post the Sunday night game. I will more than likely wait until Monday to make my move on the Dolphins unless the line for some crazy reason would hit four before then at which point I would grab it.
I'm with ya on Pitt and Tenn. I have a weird feeling the Browns go into Denver and pull out a win (mostly because of the putrid D and QB in Denver). I feel like the Skins win but don't cover against the Rams, especially as the last few times STL has went to Washington they have given them fits.
I agree and NO/Philly. I feel like New Orleans should be a 3 point favorite, even though they are on the road. Without McNabb I don't see Philly hanging more than 21 on the board, which probably won't be enough.
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (2-0)(+4.00 units)
Regular Plays (0-3)(-3.30 units)
Overall (3-4)(+0.40 units)
SEASON OVERALL
Best Bets (2-2)(-0.60 units)
Strong Plays (5-0)(+10.00 units)
Regular Plays (3-5)(-2.50 units)
Overall (10-7)(+6.90 units)
We two so far I can live with. Only went 3-4, but I picked up 0.40 units, thanks two winning both strong plays. I split my best bests, and dropped all three regular plays. Overall hitting 50% with my best bets, not good, but not horrible either. My lucky picks so far would have to be my strong plays at 5-0. I cannot imagine keeping up that pace.
As much as I would like to say I finished up week two a winner, I can’t. We still have one game left and I like it a lot. I have been going back and forth on whether to make this a best bet or a strong play. I was going to post this play yesterday as a strong play, but if I can get this line at 3.5, I am all over it as a best bet. Of course my play is the Miami Dolphins.
Miami +3 over Colts (best bet)……………..One of the things we have learned between weeks one and two in the NFL is that a team can look horrible one week pretty good the next week, and vice versa. You know Dolphins coach is not going to allow another poor showing this week. In addition to that, the Colts are a year older and I don’t think they are going to be the team we are used to seeing. Of course home underdogs have always been a solid bet on MNF as well. I am look for a supreme effort by the fish tonight and they are going to get the outright win, but I won’t get greedy and take the money line in case they lose by three. This is a scary bet, but sometimes the scariest bets are the best bets.
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