All the trends and stats point to an under this Sunday at Lambeau Field when the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions.
The first meeting between these two rivals easily went over the total but that certainly does not make this one an easy over.
While the defenses of Detroit and Green Bay are ranked 24th and 29th respectively, the offenses have been underachieving all season long. The Lions are averaging 18.2 ppg against defenses allowing 20.7 ppg while the Packers are averaging 19.2 ppg against defenses allowing 20.8 ppg. Obviously both of these defenses are much worse than what they have faced but the value is on the side of the under.
The Packers expect to run the ball better against Detroit than when they faced the Lions in the first meeting. In that game the Packers rushed for only 60 yards on 27 carries. The Lions are without their best defensive lineman, injured tackle Shaun Rogers, while the Packers' three rookie starters have far more game experience in the system. Look for the Packers to use their advantage in the ground game which will shorten the game.
Don’t expect the Lions to find much success on offense as they are without running back Kevin Jones and they have not scored more than 21 points in any of their last five games. Detroit hasn't won in Wisconsin since Brett Favre took over as the Packers' quarterback in 1992, going 0-14 at Lambeau Field. I’m not big on meaningless trends but one that sticks out is the fact that Detroit has not scored more than 14 points in Green Bay since 1999 and has averaged 10.8 ppg over the last six games in Lambeau.
Green Bay has not been very successful at home as it is averaging only 14.7 ppg at Lambeau Field this season, and the Pack has scored only 10 points combined in its last two home games. The Lions, despite hitting the over in five of six road games, are averaging 18.8 ppg away from home. Detroit has gone over in five of six games on the road but the totals were low as the Lions are 1-4 under against a number of more than 42. Green Bay is 2-3 under in the same situation.
For Detroit, play under when the total is between 42½ and 49 points in the second half of the season of a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 33-7 under (82.5%) the last 10 seasons.
For Green Bay, play under when the total is between 42½ and 49 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg and coming off one more overs. This situation is 27-7 under (79.4%) over the last five seasons.
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Matt Fargo: Lions & Packers Under 43½
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