[lid73]

What a shock! I went 2-2 last week. Brings my posted record to 40-37-3. Just barely profitting a little bit because of good line shopping. If I was paying -110 on these, I would be losing money. But, some nice dogs at plus money, and splitting bets to the ML when the dog was under 3 points has kept my head above water. I rarely pay more than -105, and timing your bets helps a lot.

Well 5 more Doggies for week 14. I need a couple of big weeks to make this season a good one.

NYG +3 Car - I see Carolina as a team that is moving backward. Poor play calling, poor coaching. They don't seem to have their head in the game. The Giants have lost a few recently, but they are not playing all that poorly. I see the line having a little value here. I think this game should be a pick, but I will gladly accept a gift field goal.

NO +7 Dal - I know there are a lot of Romophiles out there that won't like this pick. But NO is starting to roll a little. Also, Dallas coming off a very tough game against the Giants. When a new QB comes into the league, you always see that he does better than expected the first couple of weeks. Then, the defensive coordinators start figuring him out. Given the close game last week, I will take my shot with the Saints plus a TD.

Oak +11 Cin - I know Oakland is bad. I know they lost to freaking Houston of all teams last week. But 11 points is too much to give against this stout defense. The Raiders D is the only half of the team that shows up. Given Cinci's running game, I think the raiders shut them down, and keep this game close. I might take about 10% of my bet on the ML here as well.

Den +9 SD - San Diego is good. Denver has a good defense. I can't see giving 9 points to a quality D. I can see this being a 3-6 point game. While I feel SD is the better team, I am betting Denver for line value here.

Sea -3 Ari - This is a momentum play. Arizona won a nice road game. Seattle just barely pulled one out against a quality team on the road. I see Arizona being loose and confident, but Seattle being a little tired and maybe discounting the Cards a bit. I will probably split this bet between the spread and ML as well.

[Razz]

Good luck lid, always enjoy reading your thread. Oakland, Denver, and Arizona all interest me as well.

[lid73]

Thanks Razz:

Hopefully, the woofers will come through this weekend. I really like the Giants a lot. Anyone have an idea why the line is down?

[Checkerboard]

Good luck lid, always enjoy reading your thread. Oakland, Denver, and Arizona all interest me as well.

Hey lid73, I echo Razz's post verbatim. I too enjoy reading your writeups and the last 3 teams on your list interest me too. Especially like your point about SEA being tired.
I'm kind of neutral on NYG, I won with them last week but I don't know about this week . . .
I've already taken DAL -6.5 for reasons outlined in imgv's thread. GL this weekend!

[Razz]

Thanks Razz:

Hopefully, the woofers will come through this weekend. I really like the Giants a lot. Anyone have an idea why the line is down?

Delhomme is questionable ... hope you already played NYG, because if Weinke starts, that line would probably switch around to NY -3.

[RageWizard]

Week 14

Trying to recover from my 1-4 (ouch) week in week 13. This week shall be different as I will get back on track with my picks.

Phi -1
Nyj/Buf Ovr 37
Atl -3

[lid73]

Well, the picks I was worried about lost.

I ended up taking the Giants at -2. I really wish I had caught the line at +3, which means I would have laid part of my bet on the money line.

Despite the fact that I went 3-2. I profitted about 2 units due to splitting my risk on the dogs between the spread and ML. The NO game especially was nice at +270.

Just curious, how many of you guys also play the ML when you like a dog? The statistic I remember for NFL is that somewhere between 82-86% of teams that win also cover. Therefore, if you like a dog, the chances are that they will win, or get shelled. Only about 14-18% of the time do the points matter. If I get anything above +120 for a ML, I have been putting a little taste on it.

Based on the size of the money line, I have started splitting anywhere from 20% to 50% of my bet to the ML. The rest of the bet, I take the points. This has done wonders for my effective juice this year. I am at even money for my bets, which leads to a nice reduction in required winning percentage for a profit.

Comments appreciated.