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Market Report (Conf Championships)
"Sportsbooks have been enduring quite a challenge this week in the NFC and AFC Championship games that will determine next month’s Super Bowl combatants. To this point in the proceedings, the sharps (professional wagerers) and the squares (the general public) have been betting the same teams!
*Sharps and squares have both liked favored San Francisco at the posted lines, though oddsmakers did eventually push the number to a place that brought in underdog Atlanta money.
*Sharps and squares have both liked Baltimore plus the high number, though the split of bets isn’t as dramatic in this case because New England does have enduring support from some elements in the market.
Let’s go over how sharps have been betting the two games thus far, taking the matchups in schedule order…
SAN FRANCISCO at ATLANTA
Opening Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 47
Current Line: San Francisco by 4, total of 48.5
Early guesses last Sunday had San Francisco opening below a field goal. Rumblings within the market during Atlanta’s second-half collapse vs. Seattle about potential sharp support for the Niners caused most places to open at the three. Sportsbooks got POUNDED with sharp action anyway! The line had to go higher than four for any Atlanta underdog money to hit the table.
We can summarize it this way:
Sharps LOVED San Francisco at -3
Sharps still bet San Francisco at -3.5
Sharps stopped betting San Francisco at -4
Some sharps did bet Atlanta when some stores moved higher than the four
We’ve told you often in the past about how much support it takes to move off the key number of three, and then to STAY off it. That support was obviously here. Sharps liked the Niners. And, the square betting public in Vegas that is heavily influenced by San Francisco fandom was also part of the mix. If you’ve never been to Las Vegas on an NFL Sunday, you may not realize that it’s 49ers and Raiders country (the two California teams). Sportsbooks knew they’d be battling square money on the Niners…they didn’t properly anticipate how much the sharps were going to like San Francisco in this spot too.
The total was bet Over the opener, and has been as high as 49.5 or 50 in places before the math guys started betting some Unders (the public typically bets Overs, especially in domes, so the draw back had to come from sharp action). It’s safe to say that sharps like Over 47 and 48, but Under 49.5 and 50. Since there’s no chance for weather to influence the game, any line moves between now and kickoff will be from a tug-of-war from square and sharp total action.
BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
Opening Line: New England by 9, total of 51
Current Line: New England by 8, total of 51
The move downward surprised many people, because the tendency would be for sharps to wait until the public loaded up on the dynasty favorite before jumping on the dog. Maybe this line would go up right away because of position-taking, or from the faction of sharps who liked New England getting in early. Maybe it would freeze as dog lovers waited for the best number in a scenario where there weren’t any sharps who liked the Pats. But, going DOWN?
When early square action came in on the big dog Baltimore, both sharps and oddsmakers had to change their plans. Sharps bet right away instead of waiting because +9 was probably the best they were going to see. Sharps had to lower the lines to encourage New England money right away after this square surprise.
Those of you who have been with us through this season, or through past seasons, know that sportsbooks HATE dropping a big favorite into teaser territory. New England at -8 (or -8.5) can be used in two-team teasers at a number below a field goal now. We’ve talked often about how sportsbooks will purposely leave a line at nine just to avoid inviting teasers. Baltimore action was so heavy that oddsmakers decided they had to live with New England teasers with the Pats at -2 or -2.5. This is a significant development.
Let’s summarize the sharp action this way:
*Sharps like Baltimore a lot at +9 or better
*Sharps still like Baltimore at +8.5
*Sharps stopped betting Baltimore when the line +8 and started focusing on NE teasers
*Sharps have not yet found a number that made them bet New England straight
There’s still plenty of time between our standard Friday publication and kickoff. Maybe some surprises are still ahead. And, maybe there will be a flood of weekend money on the Patriots that would push the line back up to nine or higher.
On the total, things have centered very solidly on the 51. Any stores that moved off that number saw action immediately bring it back. This is an outdoor game in the North, which means there’s time for weather to create a sharp surge on the Under. Squares typically bet Overs, and would probably do so here unless the weather is bad. Remember that all four games last week went Over their totals by double digits (landing on 73, 76, 58, and 69).
Some of you may be wondering…who would sharps use WITH New England -2 or -2.5 in their two-team teasers? After all, there are only two games on the schedule, and sharps typically don’t use Over/Unders in teasers because of the volatility.
There’s not an obviously ideal second choice. We’ve heard from our sources that New England -2 or -2.5 might be paired with any of the following:
*With Under 57 on the Balt/NE total if weather becomes a factor
*With over 45 on the Balt/NE total if weather isn’t going to be a factor
*With Atlanta +10 because it crosses the key number of 7 and at least lands on a lesser key number
*A temporary blank, meaning the second team will be filled in during the Super Bowl if there’s an ideal choice based on the price. Some stores offer open-ended teasers.
!
double gave JR007 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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