Figured I'd go back and watch a replay of the game to get some more info before I bet. I had the Texans +4.5 last time
One thing I really wanted to analyze was the effectiveness of JJ Watt. Whenever I think about the Texans I always have faith in him because he's such a terror on the defensive side (one of the reasons I took the Texans and the points) but wanted to see why he didn't really factor in the Patriots game.
1. Patriots have a lot of quick throws. He can't get there in time. Brady is really good at getting to the line quickly if need be and throwing those essentially long WR handoffs.
2. I only re-watched the first half but he did not have ONE 'swatted' ball. I think JJ Watt's best ability is batting down passes.
3. Brady is really good at stepping up in the pocket. If Watt rushes from the outside Brady will step up and fire strikes down the field.
4. Patriots offensive line did a good job of double teaming when need be and keeping Watt at bay.
Now as far as the final score goes, a big part of it was the Texans getting behind the score early. Had to change their game plan. They are at their best when they run play action pass on typical running downs. The early interception in the red zone in the 1st quarter by Schaub was huge as was the fumble recovery by Hernandez later in the 1st quarter. Take away those 2 plays and it would have been a totally different game.
If Texans get down in score early again I figure it will be a replay of Week 14. They have to get an early lead or stay even at least to stand a chance.
Not sure about laying 9 points but Houston barely won against Cinci and Dalton was running for his life the entire game.....what's going to happen when Brady has time to hit Hernandez, Gronk, Welker, Lloyd?
TOP if Houston wants to win they run, run, run and play action off the run. Houston is the number one team in the league at keeping its defense on the sideline for 55% of every game on average. They have to keep Brady sitting on his hands. It is possible and I would not be the least bit surprised to see a different game than the last. New England this year has improved their rush defense. Yet simple match shows 4.1 yards per rush and they allow an average of 7.2 rushing 1st downs per game. I don't see schaub having to air it out if they get the ball early and eat the clock all game long.
the opening drive the texans ran the ball really well with foster.
i dunno if there's hard evidence to support the payback 'revenge' game theory but i don't really believe in that. these guys are so competitive....i can't believe that they'd have to 'get up' for a game. anyone whose every played even high school sports knows how jacked up you get on gameday.
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Texans/Patriots Week 14 Analysis
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