[indio]

When you analyze the math, it's really a lousy bet.

First off, they have to make the playoffs. Winning the division is highly doubtful, since even if they beat Baltimore in the last week, they'd lose on division record tiebreaker, so with the exception of the less than 1% chance of winning the division, they would have to make it as a wild card. With Indy at 8-4, games with Tenn. and KC, and a home finale against Houston which will probably have Houston already clinched the #1 seed, they probably wont pass Indy. That leaves Pittsburgh and Cincy to battle for the #6 seed (sans the 1% chance of Buff, Jets, or Miami getting it). Pittsburgh gets Cincy at home, so you're probably at least +150 to +200 in that game, which you MUST win. Then you may still have to beat Baltimore in the last week, and Baltimore might need a win for the #2 seed and added rest. So even if you're a pick 'em there, i put at best, your chances of getting into the playoffs at 25%.

Now, if you happen to get the #6 seed , you have to win on the road at New England, Denver, or Baltimore, and you're no better than 30% chance on market price in any of those games, (probably more like 25%). If you win that game, you have to win on the road at Houston, where you'd be between +250 and +350, so let's give them a 25% chance there. Then, you'd have to win on the road in the AFC title game, where you'll be an underdog again, probably no lower than +200 (lets say 30%).

So even if we boost our expected chances of each step, let's multiply it.

30 % chance of making playoffs (generous, more like 25%)

30% chance of winning first wild card playoff game on road (generous again, especially vs NE)

25% chance of winning at Houston

33% chance of winning on road in AFC championship game.

.30 x .25 x .30 x .33 = .0074 chance ( 0.74% = 134-1)

If you waited until they made the playoffs as the #6 seed, you can parlay them as sizeable ML underdogs and get a better price than 35-1, and you wont waste any money if they don't make the playoffs. There's no way they would be road favorites against any playoff opponents, and you KNOW they're going to be +300 against Houston, so why bet them now?

Of course, you would have the microscopic chance of them winning the division, but bottom line, the price isn't right.

But thats not to say not to bet it, just dont think its a bargain price, because in reality, the price is terrible.

I hate to be negative, because I love long shot futures, and have hit some nice ones (even longer than 35-1) in the last 10 years. But, I just don't think the price is good enough for what you need to do to win it.

Having said all that, I've always liked the Bengals, even in the Isaac Curtis and Lemar Parrish days, and I hate Pittsburgh, so I hope you make it and do well. Good Luck.

[iifold]

When you analyze the math, it's really a lousy bet.

First off, they have to make the playoffs. Winning the division is highly doubtful, since even if they beat Baltimore in the last week, they'd lose on division record tiebreaker, so with the exception of the less than 1% chance of winning the division, they would have to make it as a wild card. With Indy at 8-4, games with Tenn. and KC, and a home finale against Houston which will probably have Houston already clinched the #1 seed, they probably wont pass Indy. That leaves Pittsburgh and Cincy to battle for the #6 seed (sans the 1% chance of Buff, Jets, or Miami getting it). Pittsburgh gets Cincy at home, so you're probably at least +150 to +200 in that game, which you MUST win. Then you may still have to beat Baltimore in the last week, and Baltimore might need a win for the #2 seed and added rest. So even if you're a pick 'em there, i put at best, your chances of getting into the playoffs at 25%.

Now, if you happen to get the #6 seed , you have to win on the road at New England, Denver, or Baltimore, and you're no better than 30% chance on market price in any of those games, (probably more like 25%). If you win that game, you have to win on the road at Houston, where you'd be between +250 and +350, so let's give them a 25% chance there. Then, you'd have to win on the road in the AFC title game, where you'll be an underdog again, probably no lower than +200 (lets say 30%).

So even if we boost our expected chances of each step, let's multiply it.

30 % chance of making playoffs (generous, more like 25%)

30% chance of winning first wild card playoff game on road (generous again, especially vs NE)

25% chance of winning at Houston

33% chance of winning on road in AFC championship game.

.30 x .25 x .30 x .33 = .0074 chance ( 0.74% = 134-1)

If you waited until they made the playoffs as the #6 seed, you can parlay them as sizeable ML underdogs and get a better price than 35-1, and you wont waste any money if they don't make the playoffs. There's no way they would be road favorites against any playoff opponents, and you KNOW they're going to be +300 against Houston, so why bet them now?

Of course, you would have the microscopic chance of them winning the division, but bottom line, the price isn't right.

But thats not to say not to bet it, just dont think its a bargain price, because in reality, the price is terrible.

I hate to be negative, because I love long shot futures, and have hit some nice ones (even longer than 35-1) in the last 10 years. But, I just don't think the price is good enough for what you need to do to win it.

Having said all that, I've always liked the Bengals, even in the Isaac Curtis and Lemar Parrish days, and I hate Pittsburgh, so I hope you make it and do well. Good Luck.

Good post...

But next time post it before the Steelers win on the road as 7 point dogs with Charlie Batch at QB...

[Bengals28]

I love how you leave out the Colts going to Houston and also the fact that the Texans go to Foxboro next Monday. If the texans lose that game they will be forced to play their starters and win out for the number 1 seed or deal with tiebreakers.

[indio]

I love how you leave out the Colts going to Houston and also the fact that the Texans go to Foxboro next Monday. If the texans lose that game they will be forced to play their starters and win out for the number 1 seed or deal with tiebreakers.

Well, there are over 500 permutations I failed to mention, can't look at every single one. I also failed to mention New England plays San Francisco too, so we can play the what if scenarios forever.

Hey, I'm rooting for the Bengals, I hope you make it. I'd love nothing more for you to go down to Heinz and kick their ass like you did in '05 (the year I cashed on them at 9-2 to win the division).

I was just analyzing the numbers is all. I still feel a bettor can get close to 30-1 or better with a ML parlay on 3 road playoff games was my only point. I hope we actually get the chance to make that comparison.

[k13]

Steelers and Colts are both -400 to make the playoffs yet Bengals to NOT make the playoffs are only -125....

Someone here said they only have around 25% chance to make it so that would be a good line for them.

[iifold]

still alive...

[2daBank]

still alive...

assuming pit beats dal which i think they will still a lot of work to do... 2 teams this ginger fumbling fukk has never beat on tap,,,be feeling lot better if they didnt piss that gm away last week..

[iifold]

assuming pit beats dal which i think they will still a lot of work to do... 2 teams this ginger fumbling fukk has never beat on tap,,,be feeling lot better if they didnt piss that gm away last week..

Yeah, he was getting his Joe Flacco on today for sure...

Cowboy loss will probably be the one we look back on as the killer...

Little bit of hope is better than none at all...

[McDabs]

It comes down to the Bengals Steelers game no doubt.

They win that, they make it the playoffs IMO.

Feeling good that the Ravens are playing off their game right now.. its either going to get better or the wheels may just be falling off.

[2daBank]

Yeah, he was getting his Joe Flacco on today for sure...

Cowboy loss will probably be the one we look back on as the killer...

Little bit of hope is better than none at all...

yea dal was painful,,wouldnt expect green to drop a td and a 1st down that would have sealed that gm..i dont know all the scenarios but balty losing out isnt out of the question, not sure if that matter tho or it all comes down to beating pit next week? or having to beat pit and balt? i dunno, how it all works out but still alive anyway..lol

[rm18]

Steelers and Colts are both -400 to make the playoffs yet Bengals to NOT make the playoffs are only -125....

Someone here said they only have around 25% chance to make it so that would be a good line for them.

Baltimore might lose out. Indy could as well.

Even if the future market is less still should pay over 35/1 to open parlay Cincy against Pitt and 3 playoff games