Hitting around 54% on the year when I use my picks and not some tool tout. Had an insane week last week with the following card:
1. Buffalo -1.5 vs. Miami 2. Jacksonville +16 vs. Houston, easy cover 3. Green Bay -3 vs. Detroit 4. New Orleans -4.5 vs. Oakland, easy cover 5. Baltimore -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh 6. NY Jets +3 vs. St. Louis, easy cover 7. New England -5.5 FIRST HALF vs. Indianapolis 8. 3 Team Parlay (Buffalo -1.5, New Orleans -4.5, Green Bay -3)
-they say follow em while they're hot and I am right now. Just wanted some opinions on my Week 12 picks as of now:
Strong Bets:
New England -6 vs. NY Jets- same thing every year with these two, one close game (see a few weeks ago), and one Patriots blowout (see this Thursday night). I had this game Pats -8 and think they could run away with it. Gronkowski or not. At -6 I have a lot of faith in NE winning by a touchdown at least.
Oakland +8 vs. Cincinnati- It’s the NFL, only legitimate Superbowl contenders should ever be 8 or more point favorites against ANY other NFL team. I had this Cincy -4, I don’t think Cincy is more than average in an average AFC, that’s way too many points to assume they cover. This bet is made off of principle, you could insert a lot of marginal teams in for Oakland and I’d still feel the same.
Medium Bets:
Houston -3 vs. Detroit- Lions at home Turkey Day, everyone motivated…..eh. They came up short against a good Green Bay team last week and will again. Houston has to bounce back from the close call with Jacksonville and gets their chance to show the nation they are for real. Bottomline you get a 9-1 team only having to win by more than a field goal. If it was 2.5 it’d be a strong bet.
Atlanta (Pick) vs. Tampa Bay- Tampa has won 4 in a row….against mediocre teams. Bucs are playing well but Atlanta is the class of this division. It’d be one thing if Tampa was a 3 point dog here, but a straight bet on Atlanta just winning the game sounds good.
Low Bets:
Baltimore (Pick) vs. San Diego- very similar to the game above, I projected Baltimore as a -4.5 favorite so this is a good line. What makes this a lower grade than the game above are the obvious concerns, San Diego coming off a tough loss, Philip Rivers still being a good QB, Baltimore having to travel west after a physical game with Pittsburgh. But Baltimore is 8-2 because they have found ways to win tough games. This could very well be a San Diego win, but by Wednesday this line should be Baltimore -2 so I’ll jump on the pick’em today.
St. Louis vs. Arizona -2.5 – My First Home Team! Arizona started 4-0 and has lost 6 straight. So why not end that streak against the team that started it and ruined your season? Besides, is anyone really going to be surprised, or notice, if Arizona beats St. Louis by a field goal?
On the Radar:
Tennessee -3 vs. Jacksonville- This line is at -120 for Jacksonville +3, if it goes to Tennesse -2.5 or lower TAKE IT. I think this could happen with the public jumping on the Jags bandwagon thinking “they almost beat Houston so they will be really motivated vs. the Titans”. I would rather think, they almost beat Houston and now will revert back to the shitty team they are. A 1-9 record speaks for itself, and Chad Henne is still Chad Henne. I want to take this line now, but will wait to see if we can get less for the Titans to cover and make it a medium pick.
Buffalo +3 vs. Indianapolis-Its possible the Colts come out and blow out Buffalo if they don’t show up. Knowing that and the fact that the public loves Andrew Luck I see this game going to Indy -3.5 or -4, which is a perfect time to jump on Buffalo who is playing with their season on the line. If we can get Buffalo -3.5 or more make it a low pick.
Denver vs. Kansas City +10.5- I like that this line opened so high BEFORE the public could jump all over Peyton Manning and the Broncos. I’m taking Kansas City as a medium play no doubt…..I’m just going to wait until it gets to +11 or +12. This is a lot like Houston/Jax last week, this is just a lot of points to cover in a divisional game, and Kansas City is the home team. Arrowhead plus garbage time points equal a KC cover here.
Stay Away:
Washington +3 vs. Dallas -3- I want to take RG3 and see him beat the Cowboys, but you don’t know which Cowboys team is going to show up, I don’t have that much faith in the Redskins.
Seattle -3 vs. Miami +3 – Does Seattle struggle after a long flight, does Miami show up and pull one out at home against a tough defense? I don’t care, this is too tough to call.
Green Bay +2.5 vs. NY Giants -2.5- I had this projected at Green Bay -2.5 and I was flip flopped. I was ready to jump on the Giants as a 2-3 point Home Dog. And now I’m just backing off. Not confident enough in the Giants in November and not betting against Green Bay as an underdog.
I'm hesitant on a NE teaser, I feel like if somehow its close the Jets will pull something out of their ass, I think the PAts torch them though. That over in the Cowboys game is interesting though
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CarolinaRugby's Week 12 Picks (8-0 in week 11)
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