1. 11-19-12 12:32 PM #1
    mwhelan11
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    Not a big prop guy but found a GREAT PLAY!

    longest field goal over 44.5 yards -110. Like stated above will be a field goal clinic and both kickers are very good. I see risk being taken with FG's bc points will be scarce.

    Akers has hit a 63 yarder this year. he has hit 10 from 40+.

    Gould has hit 6-7 from 40-50

    Both have hit 2+ from over 50.

    Weather will be around 50 degrees, partially cloudy but NO WIND or precipitation.

    NFL kickers convert 1 in 1.25 (80%) of their kicks overall and 1 in 1.43 (70%) kicks between 40-49 yards, but the latter part of that range begins to stretch their limits. At 50 yards or more NFL kickers are successful on 1 in 1.94 (52%) attempts.

    a 47-yard field goal—the actual data gives us 1 in 1.38 odds (72%); the smoothed line, 1 in 1.5.


    Also looking at first score not a TD for -110. 2 backup qb's with two unbelievable defenses. Only way this prop loses is if bears get pick 6 but both teams will be running ball. Good Luck.
    Last edited by mwhelan11; 11-19-12 at 04:29 PM.
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  2. 11-19-12 12:41 PM #2
    p19101
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    I agree, sounds good.
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  3. 11-19-12 12:46 PM #3
    p19101
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    It's -105 now, someone must have thought the opposite
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  4. 11-19-12 12:47 PM #4
    ColdBeerHere
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    I never play props either but I found two for this game....neither team scores 3 straight times +115.....and I'm also on the first score not a td -110.
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  5. 11-19-12 12:48 PM #5
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by p19101 View Post
    It's -105 now, someone must have thought the opposite

    At 5dimes it went up to -115
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  6. 11-19-12 12:48 PM #6
    rumnblack
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    Three straight times occurs more than you'd ever think but if you were ever going to play it it's this game.
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  7. 11-19-12 12:49 PM #7
    p19101
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwhelan11 View Post
    At 5Dimes it went up to -115
    When I saw post I went there and it was -110, while checking other books it went to -105 which is what I got for my bet.

    EDIT : Nope, still -105 at 5dimes.
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  8. 11-19-12 12:50 PM #8
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColdBeerHere View Post
    I never play props either but I found two for this game....neither team scores 3 straight times +115.....and I'm also on the first score not a td -110.
    Yea looking at 3 straight too and like first score not a TD.

    Love the FG over 44.5
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  9. 11-19-12 12:51 PM #9
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by p19101 View Post
    Must have been from my play then. When I saw post I went there and it was -110, while checking other books it went to -105 which is what I got for my bet.
    rumnblack could not agree more.

    P19101 ohhh gotcha
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  10. 11-19-12 12:56 PM #10
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by p19101 View Post
    When I saw post I went there and it was -110, while checking other books it went to -105 which is what I got for my bet.

    EDIT : Nope, still -105 at 5dimes.
    where are you seeing that? I am on my 5dimes acct looking at -115?
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  11. 11-19-12 12:57 PM #11
    amarius87
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    what about number of td? under 3.5? sounds like a pretty good prop bet to me ( 1.66 odds)
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  12. 11-19-12 12:59 PM #12
    p19101
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwhelan11 View Post
    where are you seeing that? I am on my 5dimes acct looking at -115?
    Under the "props" section
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  13. 11-19-12 01:01 PM #13
    haserfauld
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    Might there be more value in both teams making a 37.5+ FG @ +150?
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  14. 11-19-12 01:05 PM #14
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by amarius87 View Post
    what about number of td? under 3.5? sounds like a pretty good prop bet to me ( 1.66 odds)
    3.5 is a tough call... that depends on defensive touchdowns/turnovers. either backup QB tries to be a hero and start throwing, I see alot of interceptions and mistakes. Defense will decide the touchdown margin. I think you can make a good argument for either side. Campbell has alot of experience and Kap is a tough kid, Kap wants to be starter he could have a great game. Now Im making no sense and will stop haha. GL
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  15. 11-19-12 01:07 PM #15
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by haserfauld View Post
    Might there be more value in both teams making a 37.5+ FG @ +150?
    Just saw that... It think it is a great play at that price.
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  16. 11-19-12 01:08 PM #16
    amarius87
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    makes sense.. no arguments against that.. but the noth teams make a 37.5+ is solid prop i think. lots of mid-field possesions in this game or deep in own zone.. the way i see it.
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  17. 11-19-12 01:08 PM #17
    p19101
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    What do you think of this one?

    Special teams or defensive score @ +130
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  18. 11-19-12 01:09 PM #18
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by amarius87 View Post
    makes sense.. no arguments against that.. but the noth teams make a 37.5+ is solid prop i think. lots of mid-field possesions in this game or deep in own zone.. the way i see it.
    Absolutely!
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  19. 11-19-12 01:10 PM #19
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by p19101 View Post
    What do you think of this one?

    Special teams or defensive score @ +130
    I know Bears Defense has been unreal with TD's but to me that line is really low... 49's not going to kick to Hester and both offenses will eliminate as much risk as possible.
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  20. 11-19-12 01:14 PM #20
    haserfauld
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    Quote Originally Posted by p19101 View Post
    What do you think of this one?

    Special teams or defensive score @ +130
    You have weird lines.

    That's +160 at 5D. And even then, I wouldn't take it. Turnovers, sure, but not a Def TD at that price.
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  21. 11-19-12 01:15 PM #21
    Rangers901
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    I like the logic, and the play. May bite on this myself. Good luck
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  22. 11-19-12 01:16 PM #22
    p19101
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    Quote Originally Posted by haserfauld View Post
    You have weird lines.

    That's +160 at 5D. And even then, I wouldn't take it. Turnovers, sure, but not a Def TD at that price.
    I can't see that one @ 5D, that was from bet365

    What number does it have at 5D?

    EDIT: found it and never mind
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  23. 11-19-12 01:16 PM #23
    Rangers901
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    I like the logic, and the play. May bite on this myself. Good luck.
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  24. 11-19-12 01:18 PM #24
    mwhelan11
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    Haserfauld agree.
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  25. 11-19-12 01:22 PM #25
    p19101
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    Yes you are probably right, it might not be high enough. But 2 good defenses against 2 backup QBs, not THAT unlikely.
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  26. 11-19-12 01:30 PM #26
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by p19101 View Post
    Yes you are probably right, it might not be high enough. But 2 good defenses against 2 backup QBs, not THAT unlikely.
    Agreed but not at that price! also think about 49's O line, wide outs and Gore. If turnover does happen they will make the play on the ground to recover or run down and tackle to stop the 6, unless of course CB reads a quick slant or something and easy pick 6 and bears to be would be the one with the defensive td's.
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  27. 11-19-12 01:40 PM #27
    DonFilet59
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    No td scored in game +1700, 1 unit
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  28. 11-19-12 02:30 PM #28
    k13
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    I need 8-9 FG's by Akers, what are the odds of that?
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  29. 11-19-12 02:41 PM #29
    haserfauld
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    Quote Originally Posted by DonFilet59 View Post
    No td scored in game +1700, 1 unit
    If you have 5D, go to the Futures section and pick Overtime/No TD scored at +2000. Better bet and higher payout
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  30. 11-19-12 04:32 PM #30
    mwhelan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    I need 8-9 FG's by Akers, what are the odds of that?
    Akers has the ability to make 8-9 in a game but will not get that many attempts. In 2011 San Fran actually led NFL in attempts but was only 3.1
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  31. 11-19-12 04:45 PM #31
    mwhelan11
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    ....
    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 03-27-15 at 01:48 PM. Reason: image does not exist
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  32. 11-19-12 05:14 PM #32
    Deol
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    Bet365 has it at over 43.5 at -135, wish I could alternate spread the length of the FG to get better value. This probably is the best play for this game.
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  33. 11-19-12 05:55 PM #33
    mngambler
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    what do you guys think about: total field goals over 3.5 @ -105 on youwager...seems like a good prop for half a unit
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  34. 11-19-12 08:34 PM #34
    Deol
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    Incomplete Pass here and this should hit!!

    Guess not
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  35. 11-19-12 08:43 PM #35
    w@lt
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwhelan11 View Post
    Just saw that... It think it is a great play at that price.
    One 37+ yarder on the board!
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