There's gold in them thar' preseason games! In the first part of a two-part series on betting the NFL this August, Reload looks at coaches and backups that get a lot of the playing time.
Football fever is in the air again and that means the NFL preseason schedule is only a few weeks away from starting. Even though the games do not count, there are some profits you can count on from them to build your regular season bankroll.
It all begins on Sunday, August 9, with the Hall of Fame Game between the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans televised live on NBC. That will be one of five preseason games those teams will play with everyone else in the league playing four.
There are a variety of factors when looking at wagering on any preseason game and it is critical to have as much information as possible before doing so. Some teams will come out with a more conservative approach not caring about winning the games but just getting through them. Others will be a lot more motivated to win and show what they have got.
The Coaches
The performance of a team in the preaseason often comes down to their head coach as some are more seasoned at handling the preseason than others, and some looking to make more of an impression. It is hard to forget Steve Spurrier’s approach years ago when he was head coach of the Washington Redskins and not only wanted to win preseason games, but even blow out some opponents faced.
These days, two of the coaches left in the NFL with the best preseason records over the years are John Fox of the Carolina Panthers and Jack Del Rio of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Fox has even had several years of going undefeated in the preseason, including most recently in 2006.
Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tony Sparano of the Miami Dolphins are newer head coaches who have also done well at the helm in preseason games. Generally teams that had a disappointing season the prior year will also have their coaches try to do well in the preseason to get their confidence back – especially if a new coach is on board for them.
With the schedule broken down into four weeks, each week during the preseason has its own goals for each team. In some cases, a team may be looking to figure out their roster changes and see who will make the second or third string of a team. This causes every team to give a general idea to the public of how long their first string players will stay in for each game. Almost like writing a script for a movie, once coaches give an indication of this information it becomes a matter of how much the “script” plays out during a game. Some head coaches opposing each other in a preseason game have been known to even make “gentleman’s agreements” with each other leading into a game so they have an idea of what each might be throwing at the other on the field.
Week 3 of the preseason is generally when you will see the starters go the longest and be the closest feel to a real regular season game. The final week is generally not taken seriously by most teams as it runs too close to the regular season starting, but you can occasionally find a team looking to make that one last big statement.
The Backups
Even though it is important to have an understanding of how long starters will be on the field for each team in a preseason game, it is generally the team with the more motivated backups who are victorious. The second- and third-stringers are on the field for many key plays in the second half that will frequently decide the
outcome against the spread.
Another factor is the kind of play calling that a team uses – even with starters in, some coaches may keep a lower risk approach so no one gets hurt while they may let the backups have a little more freedom to let it all hang out. You will generally see more aggression from the second and third stringers trying to make a name for themselves and this especially comes on defense as chances will exist to cause fumbles or grab an interception followed by running right into the end zone for a “pick six.”
When I review box scores from the first couple of preseason games – it is the second half numbers that I pay more attention to for these reasons. If you notice a team has allowed very few points in the third or fourth quarters, they are generally a good bet in future preseason weeks as it means their defense has depth and is clearly in shape.
In Part 2 on Wednesday (July 15) we will look at totals bets, general preparation and a few other factors that could help you add a little to your bankroll before the regular NFL season kicks off on Sep 10 in Pittsburgh when the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans.
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Betting the NFL preseason: Making your wagers count in games that do not (Part 1)
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