I'm not much of one for posting plays, but since I'm more passionate about CFL and CIS betting than anything else and love discussion and putting time into my picks, I'll once again be posting plays and some write-ups on CFL games every week.
I just spent a while getting the spreadsheet ready and updated. There's simply nothing like drinking a coffee and working on Excel. More probably should have been done in the off-season to get ready but ah well.
I took week 1 off since we didn't have much to go by, so this will be my first week of plays. All plays will be for smaller amounts than normal since once again, we don't have a lot of info at this point.
These picks are mostly based on subjective opinion, watching the tapes and roster moves, but with a good deal of weight given to week 1 results. As the season progresses I'll mostly faze out the opinion portion and put much more emphasis on box scores.
Here are this week's picks with some lame and short little observations or notes.
Last year's record: 51-37-1, +18.02 units(.5 to 2.5 units/game)
EDMONTON AT MONTREAL
The Als run a very sophisticated offense, which having someone like Calvillo at the helm allows. Offensively, there's nothing not to like about this team. Calvillo and Cobourne form a tremendous backfield, and they have one of the most talented offensive lines to go with it. Cavillo simply wasn't missing last week, completing 75% of his passes, and Cobourne had a 100 yard game. Their special teams on the other hand simply can't have a performance as poor as last week's and get away with it. Their kick coverage and punting games were atrocious.
Edmonton was lucky to hold on last week against the Bombers, but they were by far the better team on the field. They were extremely sloppy at points and the offense wasn't always clicking, but they outperformed the Bombers on a per-yard basis anyways. Turnovers and penalties were a problem, but nothing to worry about too much. Their running game sucked, but being able to play indoors in Montreal away from the bad turf and rain will surely make a difference to this explosive offense, particularly the running game.
I don't know who's going to win this one. Obviously Montreal is the favourite and getting them at -4 would've been great, but at 6.5 or 7 I can't pull the trigger either way. But, last year these were 2 elite offenses and not a whole lot has changed. Edmonton doesn't have Lumsden, but McCarty is a good back and the running game should be better this week. I expect a lot of points.
The Pick: Over 52.5. -104 * .75 units
CALGARY AT WINNIPEG
After being picked by nearly everyone to win the Grey Cup, Calgary came out and laid an egg in week 1, allowing Montreal to score touchdowns on their first 2 drives last week. Obviously they're still a great team, but it was disappointing to see.
Winnipeg... Honestly, I thought this team would be trash this season. I was firmly in the "Kelly is ****ing crazy" camp. Preach grit and hard work all you want, talent is what wins football games more often than not. But they came out strong and looked pretty competent in Edmonton. The running game was their strong point with some real nice field changing runs, and the passing game put up yards despite completing fewer than 50%. But the Eskimos D is not exactly world class.
Calgary just didn't do a whole lot right last week, but still ended up with a chance to win against a very good Als team. Winnipeg surpassed expectations, but also came up short. Calgary's the more talented team and should come out firing to avoid getting off to an 0-2 start. Talent + Motivation normally equals a strong performance.
The Pick: Calg -5.5 -110*.75 units
Last two games to follow...