[dwaechte]

I'm not much of one for posting plays, but since I'm more passionate about CFL and CIS betting than anything else and love discussion and putting time into my picks, I'll once again be posting plays and some write-ups on CFL games every week.

I just spent a while getting the spreadsheet ready and updated. There's simply nothing like drinking a coffee and working on Excel. More probably should have been done in the off-season to get ready but ah well.

I took week 1 off since we didn't have much to go by, so this will be my first week of plays. All plays will be for smaller amounts than normal since once again, we don't have a lot of info at this point.

These picks are mostly based on subjective opinion, watching the tapes and roster moves, but with a good deal of weight given to week 1 results. As the season progresses I'll mostly faze out the opinion portion and put much more emphasis on box scores.

Here are this week's picks with some lame and short little observations or notes.

Last year's record: 51-37-1, +18.02 units(.5 to 2.5 units/game)

EDMONTON AT MONTREAL

The Als run a very sophisticated offense, which having someone like Calvillo at the helm allows. Offensively, there's nothing not to like about this team. Calvillo and Cobourne form a tremendous backfield, and they have one of the most talented offensive lines to go with it. Cavillo simply wasn't missing last week, completing 75% of his passes, and Cobourne had a 100 yard game. Their special teams on the other hand simply can't have a performance as poor as last week's and get away with it. Their kick coverage and punting games were atrocious.

Edmonton was lucky to hold on last week against the Bombers, but they were by far the better team on the field. They were extremely sloppy at points and the offense wasn't always clicking, but they outperformed the Bombers on a per-yard basis anyways. Turnovers and penalties were a problem, but nothing to worry about too much. Their running game sucked, but being able to play indoors in Montreal away from the bad turf and rain will surely make a difference to this explosive offense, particularly the running game.

I don't know who's going to win this one. Obviously Montreal is the favourite and getting them at -4 would've been great, but at 6.5 or 7 I can't pull the trigger either way. But, last year these were 2 elite offenses and not a whole lot has changed. Edmonton doesn't have Lumsden, but McCarty is a good back and the running game should be better this week. I expect a lot of points.

The Pick: Over 52.5. -104 * .75 units

CALGARY AT WINNIPEG

After being picked by nearly everyone to win the Grey Cup, Calgary came out and laid an egg in week 1, allowing Montreal to score touchdowns on their first 2 drives last week. Obviously they're still a great team, but it was disappointing to see.

Winnipeg... Honestly, I thought this team would be trash this season. I was firmly in the "Kelly is ****ing crazy" camp. Preach grit and hard work all you want, talent is what wins football games more often than not. But they came out strong and looked pretty competent in Edmonton. The running game was their strong point with some real nice field changing runs, and the passing game put up yards despite completing fewer than 50%. But the Eskimos D is not exactly world class.

Calgary just didn't do a whole lot right last week, but still ended up with a chance to win against a very good Als team. Winnipeg surpassed expectations, but also came up short. Calgary's the more talented team and should come out firing to avoid getting off to an 0-2 start. Talent + Motivation normally equals a strong performance.

The Pick: Calg -5.5 -110*.75 units

Last two games to follow...

[dwaechte]

HAMILTON AT BRITISH COLUMBIA

I had high hopes for the TiCats coming into the year, and then, as always, they proceeded to take a giant shit on the field. Not performing better against the Argos is simply unacceptable. They got crushed in every area... giving up big runs and big passes. I like Porter, but he needs to be able to create bigger plays. The story on these guys looked the same as last year: Strong running game with a mobile QB who can't do much more than dink and dunk, with a defense that lets opposing RB's walk through them.

I don't have many nicer things to say about BC... they were overrated all year last season and only got worse. Losing the type of players they've lost is devastating. Their offensive line looked absolutely incompetent against the Riders, and their own pass rush obviously took a step back(although did look decent enough still.)

The BC running game is going to be key here as Pierce and the OL adjust. If I was Hamilton I'd load up the box and force Pierce to beat me. On the other side of the ball, just let your runners run it and take time off the clock.

Like I said, I'm not impressed by Hamilton, but BC is not a team that should be favoured by this much against anyone. They amost came up with a miracle win last week, but looked atrocious doing so.

The Pick: Hamilton +13 -110 *.75 units

SASKATCHEWAN AT TORONTO

The Argos came up with a big win last week, getting off to a good start in a crucial year for them. Knock them for not having much CFL experience on the sideline, but it certainly didn't look like the adjustment period would be all that bad. But all in all, it was only one game against Hamilton... hardly a season maker.

I really liked what I saw from Sask last week. Their offense looked terrific, particularly Durant. They've got so many WR weapons it's going to be almost impossible for opposing teams to keep track of them all. Meanwhile, the defense sent a lot of fun blitzes at the Lions and had a lot of success with them. The Argos O-line is improved, but whether it can handle that type of pressure has yet to be seen. The Riders were expected to regress big time since their record last year was a bit of a fluke, but I'm not buying it. This is a good team, and the Argos need to do more to prove themselves before I'll take the seriously.

The Pick: Saskatchewan, waiting to try to get +3.

[Rich Boy]

Nice analysis, I appreciate your hard work.

[waco66]

Well, Good Luck! I see BC winning 40-17 vs Hamilton! But good luck :P

[CRAPTORS101]

calgary seems too easy, expected the line to be atleast -7..

[dwaechte]

Have locked in Saskatchewan at +3 -108 for .75 units. Forgot to mention but all unit sizes are to win.

And to waco, it certainly could happen, but I am really convinced that BC is an overrated team and that they will be solid fade material for the first 4-5 weeks. The numbers don't like them all that much and they lost a ton of talent. Hamilton may be worse than I anticipate, but that's a chance Ill have to take.

[waco66]

Have locked in Saskatchewan at +3 -108 for .75 units. Forgot to mention but all unit sizes are to win.

And to waco, it certainly could happen, but I am really convinced that BC is an overrated team and that they will be solid fade material for the first 4-5 weeks. The numbers don't like them all that much and they lost a ton of talent. Hamilton may be worse than I anticipate, but that's a chance Ill have to take.

Well good luck , because one of us will win that night. But I am with you when it comes to Sask and Calgary. Hopefully we're both right there.

[accuscoresucks]

nice start waco
cfl week 2 is on deck

[rick_213]

anyone have any thoughts on the over/under game for bc/hamilton..and also the calgary/winnipeg game??

[HighVoltage]

Nice 3-1 start.

[cankid]

keep the roll going