[Jeff Grant]

[Jeff Grant]

The Houston Texans have won their last four games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as the two AFC South rivals prepare to meet inside Reliant Stadium on Sunday. Let’s take a closer look at this Week 11 matchup from a betting perspective.


Texans are focused on gaining home-field advantage


Houston is currently in the top spot to have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, as it leads the Baltimore Ravens by a single game in a very important race. The Texans have won and covered their last three games, including a 13-6 win over the Chicago Bears as one-point road underdogs, while going UNDER the total for the second time in that span.


Jaguars continue to miss the mark


Jacksonville will look to snap its six-game losing streak, which includes a disappointing 27-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts as three-point home underdogs last Thursday night. Sports bettors may look to play the Jaguars as one of their pro football picks this week, considering they’ve covered their last three games off consecutive home losses since the 2010 campaign.


Quite a tariff


There’s no doubt that the Texans are worthy of being a double-digit favorite on the pro football odds page, but I’m not sure if they should be laying the most points in franchise history in this spot. Houston will likely kick off as a home favorite of 14.5 or more points for the first time, which supplies a pretty good reason to play the other side. On the other side of the field, Jacksonville covered its lone opportunity as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points since 1996.


Gabbert has missed the mark in this series


Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert has a 41.9 passer rating in three career games against the Texans, which is his lowest mark versus any NFL team. The former Missouri Tigers star completed 7 of 19 passes for 53 yards in a 27-7 setback as 6.5-point home underdogs in the first meeting this year, as the offense managed to gain just 117 yards in that affair. The UNDER is 3-0 in this divisional series since he was drafted in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft—a betting trend that could easily continue.


Texans may look ahead to Thanksgiving Day


The Texans will hit the road for three consecutive games after this contest, which will start off next Thursday against the Detroit Lions in the Motor City. Houston has compiled a dominating 7-0 against-the-spread (ATS) in its last seven November contests, which gains even more strength due to Jacksonville missing the mark in its last four tries in that situation.