SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
"Teaser Shopping" Analysis
Been meaning to look into this for quite some time - if I'm going to play a teaser, which one would hypothetically be best? And why do I care?
(Note - I do not back these as official plays at this time)
The initial strategy that comes to mind here is to look for teasers that "beat" the moneyline. For example, for this upcoming weekend - Seahawks -5 versus Vikings, Moneyline of -240. Using the chart below of "effective" teaser moneylines (determined by the square root) per leg, we see that teasing Seattle to -.5, "Ties Reduce", effectively costs around -225 instead,saving 15 cents of "Vig". Not a bad start!
I recommend looking for "Key" numbers, including 3, 7, 10, 13, 14, 17, etc. I especially like utilizing teasers in low total games - as the points we are buying should have a much larger impact. The opposite is true for pleasers (to be covered later).
A strategy of mine has been to filter for teasers at "Wang Adjusted" books. By this, I mean books, like 5Dimes, which alter their teaser lines to hinder those players attempting to use a teaser to buy points across both the 10 and 7. This is done by adjusting the default point spread and juice. This leaves a backdoor open, however - to tease the underdog, often at very generous juice (-135, or higher). You can get several "free" points this way!
Now that we have our "filter", what opportunities should stand out even further? Let's analyze the current 5Dimes pricing to see.
Current opportunities for this strategy in NFL week 9 are Chiefs +9 -130 versus Chargers, and Bills +11.5 -130 versus Texans.
Utilizing a 5 point & 5.5 point "ties win" teaser, respectively, we can play across the key numbers of 14 and 17, at effective moneylines of about -236, and -250, respectively. That's a nice spread, for that price! Personally, I'd take those over +9 and +11.5 in a heartbeat.
So, what's the "best deal" in teasers? Interestingly, it's relatively cheaper to "buy" to 5 or 5.5 point "ties reduce" teasers, or 5 point "ties win" teasers (although keep in mind, these values do not account for diminished expected win increase per cent of vig for increasing moneylines).
From the chart below, sweet spots for "ties reduce" include 4 or 6 team 4.5 point teasers, 8 or 9 team 5.5 point teasers, and 6 or 7 team 6.5 point teasers. "Ties win" "specials" include 4-6 team 4.5 point teasers, 4 or 6 team 5 point teasers, 8 team 6 point teasers...
Or, if you're really brave, generally anything over 10 teamsCan anyone hit one?
Good luck,
The StatDude.
Images: 5Dimes Teaser pricing / Effective moneyline per leg of 5Dimes teasers, up to 9 points
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by heywally
